Author Topic: The Latest Polls  (Read 33352 times)

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Offline BigTex

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The Latest Polls
« on: September 28, 2012, 12:41:24 PM »
Figured we had so many poll threads I would just make one and put them in here as they came out. Also since no one seems to trust the polls Im taking the internals and putting them in the 08 and 04 turnouts.

Fox news - National
D +3 Poll: Obama 48, Romney 43

2008 turnout: Obama 50, Romney 40

2004 turnout: Obama 47, Romney 44

ARG - Virginia
D +3 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 47

2008 turnout: Obama 50, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 50, Obama 46

ARG - New Hampshire
Party even Poll: Obama 50, Romney 45

2008 turnout: Obama 51, Romney 44

2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 47

Gravis - Michigan
D +5.7 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 46
No cross sections

Morning Call - Pennsylvania
D +8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 42

2008 turnout: Obama 48, Romney 43

2004 turnout: Obama 47, Romney 44



« Last Edit: September 28, 2012, 01:10:43 PM by BigTex »
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Splashdown

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2012, 01:06:12 PM »
links?
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Offline BigTex

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2012, 01:11:16 PM »
links?

I knew I was forgetting something, its edited with links now
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Splashdown

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2012, 01:12:18 PM »
Thanks.
Let nothing trouble you,
Let nothing frighten you. 
All things are passing;
God never changes.
Patience attains all that it strives for.
He who has God lacks nothing:
God alone suffices.
--St. Theresa of Avila



"No crushed ice; no peas." -- Undies

Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2012, 01:28:25 PM »
Here's a couple for you:

From the Jerusalem Post:  Poll shows 65 percent of Jews support Obama

http://www.jpost.com/USPresidentialrace/Article.aspx?id=286414

But, it's bad news for the Obamessiah.  Why?

2008 Jewish Vote for Obama Exceeds All Expectations

http://www.njdc.org/site/page/jewish_vote_for_obama_exceeds_all_expectations

13 points down from '08.  Enough to shift Florida to RSquared?  Maybe.
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

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Offline pandric

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2012, 06:27:53 AM »
Here's a couple for you:

From the Jerusalem Post:  Poll shows 65 percent of Jews support Obama

http://www.jpost.com/USPresidentialrace/Article.aspx?id=286414

But, it's bad news for the Obamessiah.  Why?

2008 Jewish Vote for Obama Exceeds All Expectations

http://www.njdc.org/site/page/jewish_vote_for_obama_exceeds_all_expectations

13 points down from '08.  Enough to shift Florida to RSquared?  Maybe.

What did the same pollster find in Septermber, 2008? Did this same pollster guess Obama's 77% exit poll vote? Or did this pollster gave Obama, say, 65% in 2008 as well? If that's the case, then it the Jewish vote has not changed. What's the name of the pollster?

Offline pandric

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2012, 06:34:36 AM »
Ok I found the poll from 2008 conducted by the same pollster (American Jewish Committee): It had Obama leading McCain 57-30%. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=849241&ct=6010403

Because of the undecided respondends or whatever other reason the poll did not come close to guessing Obama's exit poll showing; therefore, for you to conclude that Obama "has lost 10 points" from the exit poll is an apples vs. oranges argument, since:

1) There are no undecided voters in an exit poll (because everyone voted already), and
2) The pollster (AJC) is expected to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012 as it did in 2008.

An apples vs. apples comparison would be to compare Obama's 65% in this poll to Obama's 57% in the September, 2008 poll.


Offline txradioguy

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2012, 07:19:14 AM »
Ok I found the poll from 2008 conducted by the same pollster (American Jewish Committee): It had Obama leading McCain 57-30%. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=849241&ct=6010403

Because of the undecided respondends or whatever other reason the poll did not come close to guessing Obama's exit poll showing; therefore, for you to conclude that Obama "has lost 10 points" from the exit poll is an apples vs. oranges argument, since:

1) There are no undecided voters in an exit poll (because everyone voted already), and
2) The pollster (AJC) is expected to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012 as it did in 2008.

An apples vs. apples comparison would be to compare Obama's 65% in this poll to Obama's 57% in the September, 2008 poll.



Nice story bro...
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Offline BigTex

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2012, 09:04:48 AM »
Columbus Dispatch - Ohio
D +8 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 42

2008 turnout: Obama 50, Romney 41

2004 turnout: Romney 47, Obama 45
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2012, 09:14:51 AM »
Ok I found the poll from 2008 conducted by the same pollster (American Jewish Committee): It had Obama leading McCain 57-30%. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=849241&ct=6010403

Because of the undecided respondends or whatever other reason the poll did not come close to guessing Obama's exit poll showing; therefore, for you to conclude that Obama "has lost 10 points" from the exit poll is an apples vs. oranges argument, since:

1) There are no undecided voters in an exit poll (because everyone voted already), and
2) The pollster (AJC) is expected to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012 as it did in 2008.

An apples vs. apples comparison would be to compare Obama's 65% in this poll to Obama's 57% in the September, 2008 poll.



Well, then . . . check the Gallup poll from yesterday that has a 16-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats (64-48).  That's going to translate into several points in each state--not just the swing states.  I said this before (though not in this thread)--at least one solid state will switch allegiances, and that will throw the Obammessiah into a tizzy in the days between being thrown out via election, and actually leaving office.  There's speculation that the Obamessiah won't leave office if he loses, and if that happens, it will get messy, because you can bet that the military would get involved.
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2012, 11:50:43 AM »
And they are all over sampling Dems. So they don't mean anything, and don't matter.

Offline Ausonius

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Re: The Latest Polls: Report From Ohio
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2012, 01:33:34 PM »
One would think that my state, Ohio, would not be considering retaining MAObama at all.  It voted for a Republican governor in 2010 and is making a small comeback as a result.  And yet today, September 30th, the Columbus Dispatch runs a front-page story about a poll with BIG BRObama leading by 9 points, 51-42.

“Fire Obama” signs, however, were quite visible during a two-day trip through northern Ohio yesterday and on Friday.  For assorted reasons my wife and I traveled from the edge of Toledo and the Lake Erie coast – Sandusky, Port Clinton, through small towns like Findlay and Norwalk – to southern Cleveland suburbs.  I saw all of 4 (four) yard signs that were for BIG BRObama: others said things like: “Save Our Republic!”  â€œRemove Obama!”  â€œPreserve Religious Freedom!”

The one sign which sent an unpleasant chill down my spine was “Workers For Obama!”

I immediately thought of the scene in the movie Dr. Zhivago where Russian soldiers hear that “Lenin is in Moscow.”  An old man does not know who this is, and asks: “This Lenin: would he be the new czar then?”  And a much younger man shouts ecstatically: “No, grandpa!  No more czars!  Only free workers in a workers’ state!”

My wife thought the slogan smacked of Communism, which it does, as well as dividing “workers” from…whom?  The rest of those NOT working?  From the U.S. Entitlement Army?

Here is the irony: this sign was in the nicely trimmed yard at a large, well-kept, expensive house with a two-car garage and easily an acre of land!  I have noticed that at times it is the modest house displaying the “Romney-Ryan” sign, while the larger, more expensive place has this arrogant sounding sign:

“Another Upper Arlington Citizen for Obama!”

(Upper Arlington is an older but still expensive suburb of Columbus.)

These are undoubtedly wondrous times for anyone studying the psychology of politics!  Ohio has shown past signs of political schizophrenia by sending one Republican and one Democratic senator to D.C.  Like right now we have the Listerine-needy Dem Sherrod Brown with Republican Robert Portman, also elected in 2010.

I will not predict whether Ohio will go for Romney: my sense is that the state is not that stupid.  And yet Drudge has a story about how 10% of Ohio’s population has a “free Obama-Phone” with 250 minutes per month all paid for by your tax dollars.  The story quotes a woman dissatisfied with 4 hours and 10 minutes or “free” time per month: she wants more, because 250 minutes are barely enough for “emergencies.”

Maybe she is accident-prone?

What I do know is that the MAObama ads on television are relentless, are full of class warfare, and now have the “47%” comments of Romney out of context and of course with a sneering tone.  What I do know is that there are seemingly intelligent people here who have been bewitched by MAObama’s brew and cannot be dissuaded from supporting him, and that there are people who refuse to register or pay attention to the election because “all politicians are a bunch of crooks anyway.”

However, I also know that people are not happy with BIG BRObama and his entitlement agenda, that while standing in line at a post office one can mutter “and the same government wants to be in charge of our health care” and receive rueful agreement, and that Ohioans with small businesses – like those across the country – feel oppressed and depressed by a future built around a Socialist, anti-capitalist agenda.

We will see what happens in November: Salvet nos Dominus in his temporibus aterrimis!

(May the Lord save us in these darkest of times!)
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Offline Freeper

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2012, 01:44:37 PM »
How certain am I that Romney will win?
I'm betting the future of this country on him winning.

I may not lock my doors while sitting at a red light and a black man is near, but I sure as hell grab on tight to my wallet when any democrats are close by.

Offline BigTex

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2012, 02:49:57 PM »
One would think that my state, Ohio, would not be considering retaining MAObama at all.  It voted for a Republican governor in 2010 and is making a small comeback as a result.  And yet today, September 30th, the Columbus Dispatch runs a front-page story about a poll with BIG BRObama leading by 9 points, 51-42.

Funny thing about that poll, of the people who voted in the 2010 election 51.3% voted for Strickland and 48.7% for Kasich
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Ausonius

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2012, 03:31:01 PM »
Funny thing about that poll, of the people who voted in the 2010 election 51.3% voted for Strickland and 48.7% for Kasich

As James Woods says at the end of Contact: "Now that is interesting, isn't it?"   O-)

The supposedly Republican-leaning Columbus Dispatch used the voting pattern from 2008, NOT 2010, and so follows the MSM meme of finding the election a "done-deal."

As I wrote above, my anecdotal evidence is not showing what the polls are showing: in 2008 I did in fact see many more MAObama signs in Ohio yards, and practically no McLame signs.  This year the situation is (somewhat) reversed.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

Chase her.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2012, 07:54:45 PM »

Offline thundley4

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2012, 09:37:50 PM »
If this election is about the economy, Romney will win hands down.

The DemonRats are trying , with the MSM's help to make it about anything but the economy.

Offline Lacarnut

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2012, 11:35:27 PM »
If this election is about the economy, Romney will win hands down.

He will win anyway provided he holds his own in the debates.

Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2012, 04:20:41 AM »
Here's Scott Rassmusen's poll out today:

Quote
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

Four years ago today, Rasmussen Reports tracking showed Obama leading John McCain by a 51% to 45% margin.  The numbers barely budged for the rest of the campaign season as Obama enjoyed a comfortable lead and stayed between 50% and 52% every day for the last 40 days.

When “leaners” are included, it’s now Obama 49%, Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Today is the last day that results will be reported without leaners. Beginning tomorrow, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily public updates solely upon the results including leaners. Platinum Members will be still be able to see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.

Currently, 43% of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney. Forty-two percent (42%) are that certain they will vote for Obama. The remaining 15% are either uncommitted or open to changing their mind. To many Americans, especially partisan activists, it is hard to imagine how someone could be anything but certain at this point in time. One of the distinguishing features of these potentially persuadable voters is that they don’t see the choice between Romney and Obama as terribly significant. In terms of impacting their own life, just 28% say it will be Very Important which man wins.


There is particular pessimism among these persuadable voters about the economy. Only 14% think it will get better if the president is reelected. But just 28% believe it will improve with a Romney victory.

While there is some bad news for both, there is some good news for both.  I bolded the third and fourth paragraphs to illustrate this.  The thing is, the uncommitted tend to break for the challenger by at least 2 to 1.

It's going to be close . . . until the last week or three.  Remember something--PM Netanyahu of Israel has said that if they don't feel confident of a Romney victory, they will strike Iran.  The new moon is around October 12th.
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

Chase her.
Chase her even when she's yours.
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Offline Ausonius

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2012, 07:18:46 AM »
Here's Scott Rassmusen's poll out today:

While there is some bad news for both, there is some good news for both.  I bolded the third and fourth paragraphs to illustrate this.  The thing is, the uncommitted tend to break for the challenger by at least 2 to 1.

It's going to be close . . . until the last week or three.  Remember something--PM Netanyahu of Israel has said that if they don't feel confident of a Romney victory, they will strike Iran.  The new moon is around October 12th.

We have discussed that before: what is not very clear to me is how or whether that will affect our election.  How supportive is mainstream America of Israel or of an attack on Iran right now?  Will that be good news for Romney or for MAObama?

We can imagine that MAObama will condemn such an attack: his base will love that, of course, but will America in general?
"Every democracy eventually becomes a bilge pump expelling the most hilarious and unwitting self-satire."

Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2012, 07:24:40 AM »
If Israel attacks Iran, it will show whose side obama is truly on. We all know he won't be on the side of Israel, and that will lose him the election. The last I saw over 80%? of the Country considers themselves Christian and acknowledge the existence of Israel. If obama goes against them and sides with Muslims of Iran, he is done.

Offline Wineslob

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2012, 09:44:01 AM »
And they are all over sampling Dems. So they don't mean anything, and don't matter.


+1
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Offline BigTex

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2012, 10:08:25 AM »
Politico/GWU - National
D +3 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 47

2008 turnout: Obama 51, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 48

PPP - Ohio
D +5 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46

Gravis - Florida
D +3.8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48
No cross sections

PPP - North Carolina
D +12 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 48

2008 turnout: Romney 50, Obama 46

2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42



Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Lacarnut

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Re: The Latest Polls
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2012, 12:21:08 PM »
Politico/GWU - National
D +3 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 47
2008 turnout: Obama 51, Romney 45
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 48
PPP - Ohio
D +5 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45
2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46
Gravis - Florida
D +3.8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48
No cross sections
PPP - North Carolina
D +12 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 48
2008 turnout: Romney 50, Obama 46
2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42
After Romney wins by a landslide, I hope all these false polls go out of business. Many of them outright manipulate or lie