Author Topic: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported  (Read 1070 times)

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Offline franksolich

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I'm guessing it's probably circa 60% or even more.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiral_of_silence

The spiral of silence theory is a political science and mass communication theory.....which stipulates that individuals have a fear of isolation, which results from the idea that a social group or the society in general might isolate, neglect, or exclude members due to the members' opinions.

This fear of isolation consequently leads to remaining silent instead of voicing opinions. Media is an important factor that relates to both the dominant idea and people's perception of the dominant idea.....

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1. The fear is real, especially with many Trump supporters

The left was absolutely effective at branding Trump as a racist after his campaign announcement. I knew they would use his words against him when I heard him.

So if you wear a maga hat or support the president you are automatically racist or inciting violence or discourse by being pro trump. It is very hard to de-program the average citizen with all of the propaganda they are pumped with day in and day out.

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2. It's similar with the "Bradley Effect."

I forget when it was, but anyway, one election Tom Bradley, then the mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the Demo candidate for governor of California; his Republican opponent was a white dude.

All pre-election polls forecast an overwhelming Bradley victory.

But that's not what happened; the Republican won, and by a good margin.

The discrepancy between the poll numbers and the election numbers was because many voters were afraid of being seen as racist if they told the truth, so they lied to the pollsters, saying they'd vote for Bradley.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline DUmpsterDiver

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2019, 10:26:35 PM »
If I were kind enough to give the DUmmys good advice it would be to catch the drift when it starts
lest it gets out of control in its ultimate spiral nature.  A snail shells' exit is smaller than its entrance for a reason.

Offline FlaGator

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2019, 05:42:53 AM »
I believe this before the last election to explain the low showing in the polls but the large turnout for the election. I believe that some pundits had the chances of Hillary winning at over 90%. I think most people who voted for Trump lied when being polled in order to avoid being thought of as a racist or deplorable. This is an unintended consequence of demonizing a popular opponent.
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Offline BadCat

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2019, 07:54:59 AM »
I have a MAGA hat and numerous anti-democrat/anti-liberal shirts I wear often.  I get compliments from many.  Never has any person said anything negative about any item.

Help keep America beautiful...deface a liberal.

The Democrat and Republican parties are simply the left and right wings of the same bird of prey.

The road to freedom is paved with dead liberals.

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Offline SVPete

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2019, 08:50:58 AM »
The MSM have played games with poll sampling for decades, though they used to go realistic late in an election cycle. With Donald Trump the MSM played sample games to make Trump look like a big loser all the way through election day. So there is zero reason to believe current polls reflect anything close to reality. And given near-universal Trump-Hatred among MSM folk, the direction of any skew is obvious.
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2019, 02:20:01 PM »
The MSM have played games with poll sampling for decades, though they used to go realistic late in an election cycle. With Donald Trump the MSM played sample games to make Trump look like a big loser all the way through election day. So there is zero reason to believe current polls reflect anything close to reality. And given near-universal Trump-Hatred among MSM folk, the direction of any skew is obvious.

Polling registered voters is their go to trick.  Likely voters are the ones that only come out at the very end and afterwards.  It pisses off the left to no end.  Which explains why the esteemed Nate Silver always has poll analysis up that Democrats lead the generic ballot 52-41.  Year round.

He knows it is wrong, as he is very smart.  Just biased. 
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Offline SVPete

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Re: why approval of the President is probably more than what's reported
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2019, 02:45:54 PM »
Polling registered voters is their go to trick.  Likely voters are the ones that only come out at the very end and afterwards.  It pisses off the left to no end.  Which explains why the esteemed Nate Silver always has poll analysis up that Democrats lead the generic ballot 52-41.  Year round.

He knows it is wrong, as he is very smart.  Just biased.

Another common dodge is to over-sample Ds while under-sampling Rs.
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.