Diesel Crisis Deepens As Inventories Fall To Dangerous Levels

[Ptarmigan]

Diesel Crisis Deepens As Inventories Fall To Dangerous Levels
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Diesel-Crisis-Deepens-As-Inventories-Fall-To-Dangerous-Levels.html

-Global diesel and distillate fuel stocks have fallen to dangerous levels.
-The U.S. has been exporting a lot of diesel to troubled Europe, but now things are changing.
-U.S. buyers are snapping up diesel cargos originally planned for Europe as the crisis deepens.

While the OPEC+ agreement to cut crude oil production and the U.S. reaction to it dominate headlines, a much more immediate crisis is getting worse by the day.

Global diesel and other distillate fuel stocks have been on the decline for a while now, and there is no reversal of this trend in sight. Demand, on the other hand, has been growing, leading to a widening shortage.

The situation has become so grave that U.S. buyers have begun snapping up diesel cargos originally sailing for Europe.

Reuters reported earlier this month that at least three tankers carrying diesel from the Middle East had changed their course mid-journey and were now traveling to the United States. And this new competition is about to intensify.

Diesel shortage is more immediate and serious problem than OPEC+ cutting oil production. There is no end in sight.

[Ptarmigan]

Fuel company issues diesel shortage warning, says conditions 'rapidly devolving'
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/fuel-company-issues-diesel-shortage-warning-says-conditions-rapidly-devolving

A major fuel supply and logistics company is raising a red flag on upcoming diesel fuel shortages.

Mansfield Energy issued the alert Friday stating there was a developing diesel fuel shortage in the southeastern region of the United States. The company speculated that the shortage could be generated from "poor pipeline shipping economies" and a historically low supply of diesel reserves.

"Poor pipeline shipping economics and historically low diesel inventories are combining to cause shortages in various markets throughout the Southeast," the company said. "These have been occurring sporadically, with areas like Tennessee seeing particularly acute challenges."

Diesel shortage is getting worse. It is most severe in Maryland, Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

"Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility," Mansfield's press statement said.

The company continued, "Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72-hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels."

The Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) holds roughly one million barrels of home heating oil. House Democrats from New England are asking President Biden to release some of those reserves to help reduce home heating prices in the region, leading into the winter months.

[Ptarmigan]

Four Reasons Why The U.S. Is Grappling With A Diesel Shortage
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Four-Reasons-Why-The-US-Is-Grappling-With-A-Diesel-Shortage.html

-Distillate levels in the United States have plummeted to the lowest levels since 2008.
-Low distillate inventories have sent diesel prices soaring.
-Four primary factors lead to this shortage.

Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that distillate inventories were at their lowest levels since 2008. (The primary distillates are diesel, jet fuel ,and heating oil). However, in 2008 distillate levels were low coming out of spring. Currently, they are low going into fall. That’s far worse than the situation in 2008.

Distillate demand generally spikes in spring — when farmers are planting crops — and in fall, when they are harvesting those crops and people start buying fuel oil for winter. Thus, a low distillate inventory in late April 2008 isn’t quite as serious as a low inventory in October 2022. In fact, distillate inventories haven’t been this low in October since the EIA began reporting this data in 1982.

Some of it is due to demand, which happens every year. Other factors that are making it worse are shutting down refineries and cutting off imports of petroleum and petroleum products from Russia.