Unemployment Rate Rises To 9.8%

[thundley4]

The nation's official unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in November from 9.6% in each of the previous three months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported.

The widely watched "nonfarm payroll employment" figure rose by a much-less-than-expected 39,000, BLS added. At private employers, 50,000 jobs were added — down from the 160,000-gain in October.

NPR

This is bad when unemployment goes up in November. What happened to the traditional drop do to seasonal hiring.

[franksolich]

NPR

This is bad when unemployment goes up in November. What happened to the traditional drop do to seasonal hiring.

It went away with George Bush.

[Allentownjake]

NPR

This is bad when unemployment goes up in November. What happened to the traditional drop do to seasonal hiring.

The entire report is generally awful.  At least the first page of it.  When you look at the internal numbers you can get more of an accurate picture.

When reading an UE report you have to understand since they started being issued, politicians have been playing with categories in order to make themselves look better.

There are 6 U numbers in the report.

The two numbers I always focus on, and the one the Obama administration likes to play with to keep things away from the magic 10% number is the not in labor force numbers, particularly the people that would like to have a job but have stopped looking because they have given up for the time being.  The other being the U6 and the number of people working part-time that would like to be full-time.   You are more likely to see a company increase someone to full-time from part-time than to hire a new worker.  I look for improvement there first.

Also with the unemployment extensions, Obama has been able to buy himself some time from reality, because you can be collecting unemployment in 2010 and not be in the labor force since there is no correlation to claims data and the survey.

Companies might actually be hiring right now, and there might be economic improvement and the U3 number will go up because the people who weren't looking while receiving benefits are now suddenly actively looking for a job and get counted in the U3 and U6, which are the two numbers the media focuses on.

[JohnnyReb]

It went away with George Bush.

DUmmies had planned to sell their free ponies to the French meat markets to buy Winter Holiday gifts for themselves.....but

[Ballygrl]

Jake, do you feel it was wrong then extending unemployment benefits as much as they have?

[Allentownjake]

Jake, do you feel it was wrong then extending unemployment benefits as much as they have?

I honestly am not sure about that.

On the one hand, if you didn't extend the benefits more people would have lost their jobs because aggregate demand would have gone into the absolute shitter.

On the other hand, Aggregate demand is about to go into the shitter anyway because we are now not going to extend the benefits and the people who were on them from the beginning of the depression are now off of them and the job situation is no better than it was in 2009 when this game started.

I guess given the way they ****ed up the recovery with low interest rates and trying to stop housing prices from deflating to their real values, I think it was stupid to extend UE benefits because all they did was delay the reality of the situation for 2 years instead of addressing the structural problems with our economy.

[Eupher]

I honestly am not sure about that.

On the one hand, if you didn't extend the benefits more people would have lost their jobs because aggregate demand would have gone into the absolute shitter.

On the other hand, Aggregate demand is about to go into the shitter anyway because we are now not going to extend the benefits and the people who were on them from the beginning of the depression are now off of them and the job situation is no better than it was in 2009 when this game started.

I guess given the way they ****ed up the recovery with low interest rates and trying to stop housing prices from deflating to their real values, I think it was stupid to extend UE benefits because all they did was delay the reality of the situation for 2 years instead of addressing the structural problems with our economy.

Reads like an overall thumbs-down to me. Thanks for your analysis, Jake.

[Ballygrl]

I honestly am not sure about that.

On the one hand, if you didn't extend the benefits more people would have lost their jobs because aggregate demand would have gone into the absolute shitter.

On the other hand, Aggregate demand is about to go into the shitter anyway because we are now not going to extend the benefits and the people who were on them from the beginning of the depression are now off of them and the job situation is no better than it was in 2009 when this game started.

I guess given the way they ****ed up the recovery with low interest rates and trying to stop housing prices from deflating to their real values, I think it was stupid to extend UE benefits because all they did was delay the reality of the situation for 2 years instead of addressing the structural problems with our economy.

Good point on the delaying the reality part.

What happens now then?

I have to say unemployment this high makes me a little uneasy, of course I have sympathy for anyone who's unemployed, but I have to say that I'm getting concerned about my family now too. I feel like we're kind of secure with our business, but right behind our house there are 2 house sitting in foreclosure and 1 of those houses is similar to ours, that house is on the market for $129,000, our home assessment done 5 years ago was listed at $329,000 and we could've gotten more than that if we put it on the market at that time. It scares me that home values have dropped that much, it scares me that a lot of people are unemployed and underemployed, and that there are a lot of people out there that are desperate, and I keep visioning in my head marauding gangs desperate for food etc. I'm probably being overly dramatic but this is what I'm thinking about when I see numbers that high.

Something has to give, you see people lining up for food assistance, rental assistance, heating assistance, there's only so much money to go around to help people, and the givers are starting to feel stretched now too.

[Allentownjake]

Well the problem is a confluence of issues that have come together at the same time.

The Free Trade agreements we have signed over the past 20 years have been rather one sided, and by one sided in the direction of the trading partner at the expense of domestic industry mixed with a couple cheap credit bubbles encouraged by the Federal Reserve.

The really only way to solve this is to enforce the rules in the trade agreements and for the federal reserve to tighten credit.

Either of those options make politicians cry.

I'm scared as well, I can very easily see a second American revolution.

[IassaFTots]

I don't really have much to add that hasn't been said, but BG, I have the same issue with housing in my neighborhood, as you were referring to.  Bought my house last year, probably could have bought it this year for even less.   

I work in a 24x7 world, where the average employee is earning $14 an hour and supporting 2+kids as a single parent, with no college degree.   I see a lot of their spending habits, and a lack of their savings habits.  I am sure they are not prepared for what is coming down the pike for them, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

[Ballygrl]

Well the problem is a confluence of issues that have come together at the same time.

The Free Trade agreements we have signed over the past 20 years have been rather one sided, and by one sided in the direction of the trading partner at the expense of domestic industry mixed with a couple cheap credit bubbles encouraged by the Federal Reserve.

The really only way to solve this is to enforce the rules in the trade agreements and for the federal reserve to tighten credit.

Either of those options make politicians cry.

I'm scared as well, I can very easily see a second American revolution.

The Politicians never seem to talk about Free Trade. And ITA about the bolded part, I never thought it was possible, but more and more it seems like a possibility.

[Allentownjake]

I don't really have much to add that hasn't been said, but BG, I have the same issue with housing in my neighborhood, as you were referring to.  Bought my house last year, probably could have bought it this year for even less.   

I work in a 24x7 world, where the average employee is earning $14 an hour and supporting 2+kids as a single parent, with no college degree.   I see a lot of their spending habits, and a lack of their savings habits.  I am sure they are not prepared for what is coming down the pike for them, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

The entire economy is built to support consumption.  Saving unless you are buying precious metals appears silly in an environment where the Federal Reserve creates 1 trillion dollars at a whim and works to keep interest rates low, thus punishing savers.

[Ballygrl]

I don't really have much to add that hasn't been said, but BG, I have the same issue with housing in my neighborhood, as you were referring to.  Bought my house last year, probably could have bought it this year for even less.   

I work in a 24x7 world, where the average employee is earning $14 an hour and supporting 2+kids as a single parent, with no college degree.   I see a lot of their spending habits, and a lack of their savings habits.  I am sure they are not prepared for what is coming down the pike for them, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

You made a great point, the Government bears some responsibility, but so does the person who chose to live paycheck to paycheck and not putting something away, and no they're not prepared at all.

[Ballygrl]

Just a curiosity question Jake, we have very little credit card debt, we had about maybe $2,000 that we carried on our credit cards, over the last couple of months we just decided to pay most of it off instead of carrying a balance, and it seems a lot of Americans are doing that also. I'm not well versed in certain parts of economics, but are people paying off their debts helping or hurting the economy?

[Allentownjake]

Just a curiosity question Jake, we have very little credit card debt, we had about maybe $2,000 that we carried on our credit cards, over the last couple of months we just decided to pay most of it off instead of carrying a balance, and it seems a lot of Americans are doing that also. I'm not well versed in certain parts of economics, but are people paying off their debts helping or hurting the economy?

Well in the long run the debt has to be either defaulted or paid.

Moving our nation back into savers vs. debtors is good for the long term health and stability of the country.

The political class however doesn't like this because you can probably count on one hand the number of people who are concerned with anything other than the next election cycle.

[Ballygrl]

Moving our nation back into savers vs. debtors is good for the long term health and stability of the country.

How do you accomplish that though when you have a significant amount of people in society who want what they want when they want it and if they can't pay for it someone else should?

[Allentownjake]

How do you accomplish that though when you have a significant amount of people in society who want what they want when they want it and if they can't pay for it someone else should?

Well I want to date Jennifer Love Hewitt, however she seems uninterested in me.  So I can't have

This is mostly the result of two disasters we've had at the Federal Reserve.  Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernake and the low interest rate boom to bust cycle.

In the 1980s Volcker raised rates and told the banks to get their act together.

[NHSparky]

I honestly am not sure about that.

On the one hand, if you didn't extend the benefits more people would have lost their jobs because aggregate demand would have gone into the absolute shitter.

On the other hand, Aggregate demand is about to go into the shitter anyway because we are now not going to extend the benefits and the people who were on them from the beginning of the depression are now off of them and the job situation is no better than it was in 2009 when this game started.

I guess given the way they ****ed up the recovery with low interest rates and trying to stop housing prices from deflating to their real values, I think it was stupid to extend UE benefits because all they did was delay the reality of the situation for 2 years instead of addressing the structural problems with our economy.

Bottom line, we just spent a whole shitload of taxpayer money to push the problem off to another day and another Congress, so (tinfoil hat time) Obumbles can now try to point fingers at the GOP House when U-3 and U-6 both take another major dump next year.

Typical government response.

[Allentownjake]

Government isn't bad when it sticks to its duties.  However, our government has abrogated it's duties and now has engaged in insane missions that are nowhere mandated in the document that created it.

[true_blood]

Government isn't bad when it sticks to its duties.  However, our government has abrogated it's duties and now has engaged in insane missions that are nowhere mandated in the document that created it.

This administration never intended to stick to it's duties from the get-go. Look at all the anti-American policies.