It'd probably take multiple McAwful Moments, during the actual campaign. I think NY is bluer than VA.
In the aggregate, yes, NY is bluer than VA by a long stretch. The key factor in VA going blue had to do with D.C. and NOVA in particular. When most of the people who live there work for the government, the government is their Savior and is sacrosanct. Their politics go accordingly toward leftism and when you further factor that D.C. is the power center and where most of the money in VA is, there you go.
Just based on previous discussions with friends who either live or did live in upper NY state, NYC has for probably 70-80 years or more completely controlled the state.
As to McAwful moments happening in NY, I'm not seeing it. Hochul is a scum lefty tyrant, but she isn't quite as offensive as Cuomo. I think she'll ultimately get reelected, but it's nice thinking an upset is possible, however remotely.