Author Topic: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study  (Read 1259 times)

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Offline 98ZJUSMC

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I was wondering if the (D)Umpmonkeys had seen this yet.  Well, I can stop wondering. 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027466831

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Proserpina (751 posts)
1. That's what I'm afraid of

You have good reason to be.  I will explain momentarily.  Pay attention.

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Fumesucker (42,783 posts)
2. Which is why Hillary will not be a good matchup for the Donald in the general

Authentic asshole bully vs inauthentic Camp Weathervane? Hillary has so many places Trump can go and you can bet he has expert oppo research on her, he may act the fool but that's just an act.

What we need is authentic mensch to go up against the authentic bully.

 :-)  Who's been giving the Sniper of Ft. Marcy Pk tummy rubs this whole time?  Please.......

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1939 (860 posts)
4. Rahm Emanuel?? NT

 :rotf:

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CJCRANE (17,952 posts)
3. A lot of liberals are sleepwalking. They don't see what the rest of the world sees.

The chaos in Libya and Syria has degraded America's credibility on the world stage.

Go ahead.  Shut down the Internet.  The eternal truth has been admitted.  But, s/h/it continues:

The strange spectacles of the ultra-PC crowd has also destroyed America's soft power abroad.

A lot of liberals are living in a bubble that is getting smaller and smaller as the expression allowed is restricted more and more. Censorship is promoted and sources mocked rather than issues addressed.

It reminds me of the Freepers and Fox News viewers in the Bush era who enforced groupthink and tried to quell dissent.

This is not the DU of the early Bush era which was curious, skeptical, contrarian and brave.

Ah, so everyone just switched sides then?   ::)

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Fumesucker (42,783 posts)
5. I think most of those aren't actual liberals

Look who's showing their colors in the gravedancing threads...

Bernouts?  Gravedancing?!?!?!?  Never.  They has electrolytes.

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Response to CJCRANE (Reply #3)Tue Dec 22, 2015, 05:12 AM
frizzled (317 posts)
6. I whole heartedly agree

Unfortunately I think the pendulum is going to swing back, hard, before your view point is accepted. The loonies are running the asylum.

Your words.  Not mine.

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Ichingcarpenter (35,483 posts)
8. Exit polls, Internet polls, Landline polls and even our electonic voting machines

Have thrown the whole polling validity in questions

Exit Polls: I had two semesters in Political Science on polling, exit polls, statistics validity, , reliability etc. back in the mid 70s ..... Exit polls were very accurate until we got electronic voting machines..... example 2000 and 2004 elections   (........)  blah blah blah ..... long useless diatribe..... Republicans stole blah ba de blah and so on.  The polls now suck because the desired result is not achieved .....  ::)

...and explains every conspiracy theory, EVAH!!  Idiot!

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MowCowWhoHow III (451 posts)
9. It's a real effect with real results

Shy Tory Factor

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Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon observed by psephologists in the 1990s, where the share of the vote won by the Conservative Party (known as the 'Tories') in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.[1]

You see (D)Ummies, there is a sizable portion of the non (D)U Bernouts that; when punched in the gut by Evita Pinochet, the Hoosegow Honey and she declares the nomination is hers, they are going to defect to Trump. 

Just watch. 

 :popcorn:

EDIT:

From Snuggs post below:

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RandySF (9,633 posts)

26. I heard an NPR report about some Sanders supporters who agreed with him.

 :lol:
« Last Edit: December 22, 2015, 04:59:53 AM by 98ZJUSMC »
              

Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline Carl

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2015, 05:45:23 AM »
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CJCRANE (17,952 posts)
3. A lot of liberals are sleepwalking. They don't see what the rest of the world sees.

The sane part of the world you mean.

Offline miskie

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2015, 06:02:44 AM »
If Trump wins the Republican nomination (and it is looking more and more likely) - there will be many independents and Dem Hillary haters (save for the hardcore leftists) who will support him because he isn't part of the political establishment.

He also seems to do surprisingly well with minorities and Hispanics. That isn't good if one is a Democrat.

With that being said, I have no idea what kind of an administration Trump will run, and that does bother me somewhat. As far as I can tell, it would be hawkish on everything international (terrorism, immigration, trade) and squishy on everything else.  But who knows ?

Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2015, 06:57:47 AM »
Hitlery has a certain edge with the vagina-voters (I.e., women who will always vote for the woman on the ticket, no matter how awful she is in comparison to the other candidate, just because of the vagina).  However, an old silver-spoon White woman with chronic honesty problems, a stiff verbal delivery only marginally better than Jeb's, and no redeeming social graces is a tough sell with Blacks, Latinos, and Millennials.

For her to lose, it's not necessary that those groups actually defect to Trump or the GOP nominee, it's only necessary that they don't bother to show up at the polls.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2015, 07:32:45 AM »
Hitlery has a certain edge with the vagina-voters (I.e., women who will always vote for the woman on the ticket, no matter how awful she is in comparison to the other candidate, just because of the vagina).  However, an old silver-spoon White woman with chronic honesty problems, a stiff verbal delivery only marginally better than Jeb's, and no redeeming social graces is a tough sell with Blacks, Latinos, and Millennials.

For her to lose, it's not necessary that those groups actually defect to Trump or the GOP nominee, it's only necessary that they don't bother to show up at the polls.

As it stands now, the Blacks and Millennials are threatening to do just that in droves, from what I've seen.
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

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Offline SVPete

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2015, 07:50:39 AM »
MSM folk have been skewing poll sampling to yield a desired result for so long that I think those who remember how to compile an honest sampling are constitutionally disinclined to do so.
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2015, 05:13:40 PM »
If Trump wins the Republican nomination (and it is looking more and more likely) - there will be many independents and Dem Hillary haters (save for the hardcore leftists) who will support him because he isn't part of the political establishment.

He also seems to do surprisingly well with minorities and Hispanics. That isn't good if one is a Democrat.

With that being said, I have no idea what kind of an administration Trump will run, and that does bother me somewhat. As far as I can tell, it would be hawkish on everything international (terrorism, immigration, trade) and squishy on everything else.  But who knows ?

He made the statement, months ago, that he would win the minority vote.  I thought that rather ridiculous, at the time, but I don't know....
              

Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline Patriot Guard Rider

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Re: Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2015, 05:24:58 PM »
MSM folk have been skewing poll sampling to yield a desired result for so long that I think those who remember how to compile an honest sampling are constitutionally disinclined to do so.

Exactly correct. 2000 when they called Florida for Gore (before the CONSERVATIVE panhandle voted due to a time difference in Florida) to suppress the conservative vote. It didn't work but the supreme court gave the vote to Bush with no mention of the suppression that happened.

(Also note: Had Gore won his home state, Florida wouldn't have mattered, but he didn't. What did they know we didn't?)
Liberals disgust me. (Now I don't have to remember to put it on each post).

Because only the left goes searching for that which is not there in a desperate attempt to be offended about something.

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