« previous next »
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Saving to see how this goes...  (Read 2065 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Karin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17547
  • Reputation: +1630/-80
Saving to see how this goes...
« on: November 03, 2018, 09:27:26 PM »
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211360684

Quote
Sat Nov 3, 2018, 08:02 PM
RandySF (21,518 posts)


My Election Night Predictions

Here we go. I am going to put my cards on the table and predict House flips and predictions of other kay races. I hope to be right on my most and wrong on others.

GOVERNOR FLIP:
Alaska (R)
Iowa (D)
Illinois(D)
Maine (D)
Michigan (D)
New Mexico (D)
Nevada (D)
Ohio (D)
Wisconsin (D)


SENATE FLIP:
Arizona (D)
Nevada (D)
North Dakota (R)

HOUSE FLIP TO D:
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IL=06
IL-14
IA-01
IA-03
KS-02
KS-03
ME-02
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NM-02
NJ-02
NJ03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
PA-01
PA-05
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
PA-17
TX-07
TX-32
VA-02
VA-05
VA-07
VA-10
WA-08

HOUSE FLIP TO R:
MN-08
PA-14

STATE CHAMBER FLIP:
CO Senate (D)
ME Senate (D)
MI House (D)
MN House (D)
WI Senate (D)


Logged

Offline Skul

  • Sometimes I drink water just to surprise my liver
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12475
  • Reputation: +914/-179
  • Chief of the cathouse
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2018, 01:25:09 AM »
Meltdowns OTW     :yahoo:
Logged
Then-Chief Justice John Marshall observed, “Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos.”

John Adams warned in a letter, “Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet, that did not commit suicide.”

Offline Ausonius

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 494
  • Reputation: +66/-4
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2018, 07:35:22 AM »
If early voting trends can predict anything, Republicans, not DEMS, are leading early voting nearly everywhere, from the statistics which I have seen.

One example from Georgia on how the MSM polls are skewed to demoralize Conservatives, i.e. their polls can just be wrong: in a special election for the House, a CNN poll not long before the election had the Republican Karen Handel losing by 7...

She won by +4 !   11-point error!
Logged
"Every democracy eventually becomes a bilge pump expelling the most hilarious and unwitting self-satire."

Offline SVPete

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25920
  • Reputation: +2236/-242
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2018, 08:54:35 AM »
Quote from: Ausonius on November 04, 2018, 07:35:22 AM
If early voting trends can predict anything, Republicans, not DEMS, are leading early voting nearly everywhere, from the statistics which I have seen.

One example from Georgia on how the MSM polls are skewed to demoralize Conservatives, i.e. their polls can just be wrong: in a special election for the House, a CNN poll not long before the election had the Republican Karen Handel losing by 7...

She won by +4 !   11-point error!

In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?
Logged
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline FlaGator

  • Another Pilgrim
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5296
  • Reputation: +933/-31
  • Democracy can survive anything except Democrats
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2018, 10:56:17 AM »
Quote from: SVPete on November 04, 2018, 08:54:35 AM
In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?

I also believe that Republicans aren't answering truthfully when being polled. Who wants to potentially make themselves a target of the charge of 'Racist' or 'Nazi' by saying you support Trump or a Trump supported candidate. I believe this contributed heavily to the surprising Trump victory in 2016.
Logged
"My enemy's enemy is the enemy I kill last."
Klingon Proverb.

Offline Patriot Guard Rider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2540
  • Reputation: +536/-18
  • Yes, really. Liberals DO disgust me.
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2018, 12:06:50 PM »
I've said this several times before on different boards, but I was polled prior to the '16 election. When I got off the phone the pollster thought I was the biggest hitlary fan EVAH!

Joke was on him.
Logged
Liberals disgust me. (Now I don't have to remember to put it on each post).

Because only the left goes searching for that which is not there in a desperate attempt to be offended about something.

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

Many people do not see evil until the gas is flowing into the chamber. That is why they get on the trains in the first place.

Offline Ausonius

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 494
  • Reputation: +66/-4
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2018, 01:07:29 PM »


Quote from: SVPete on November 04, 2018, 08:54:35 AM
In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?

I have discovered that this researcher seems to be on target: we shall see!

Quote

FORGET ABOUT ALL DAMN POLLS INCLUDING FOX! HERE IS REALITY AND IT IS BRUTAL FOR THE DEMOCRATS…….
November 2, 2018   

Reality is coming home to roost for the Democrats! The incredible Jobs Report will play an important factor on Independents that vote on Tuesday.

Immigration has completely taken over the focus for Independents in Arizona assuring not only will Martha McSally win but it won’t even be close. I suspect Immigration is going to play a major factor in many more states across our beautiful country. Understand that Immigration to Democrats is sunlight to a vampire. It will KILL them!

Democrats made a push yesterday in Early Voting in Florida but it is nowhere where they need it to be when compared to 2016.



Also from the thread above:

Quote

...The difference in Early Voting between 2016 versus 2018 is amazing for Republicans! At the end of Early Voting in 2016, Democrats had a 96,450 Early Voting advantage. Republicans currently have 58,530 Early Voting advantage.

That is a 154,980 Early Vote swing for Republicans

California House Republicans continue to do amazingly well during Early Voting! We have 9 House Seats where a Republican is the Incumbent in a contested race. There are 14 Republican House Members from California.

And...

Quote

...REAL VOTING DATA as of 11/1/18

Florida is looking better and better by the day for Republicans! Nearly 3.75 million people have voted early. The margin for the Republicans continues to increase each day (currently +63,537). Democrats had a lead of 96,450 at the end of Early Voting in 2016. The difference at this point is +159,987 for Republicans. We have an excellent chance of flipping FL-D7 and a good chance of flipping FL-D13.

We will not lose a single Republican House Seat....

(My emphasis above)

For charts, charts, and more charts and more specific state information, see:

https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/
Logged
"Every democracy eventually becomes a bilge pump expelling the most hilarious and unwitting self-satire."

Offline Ralph Wiggum

  • It's unpossible that I'm a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18564
  • Reputation: +2043/-49
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2018, 01:32:20 PM »
Don't worry, DUmmy.  We'll re examine this prediction in a few days.
Logged
Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender

Offline YupItsMe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1121
  • Reputation: +135/-6
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2018, 03:59:10 PM »
The DUmbass actually has over 40 House seat switching from R to D.   I have to assume he lives in a state where pot is legal.
Logged

Offline jukin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15747
  • Reputation: +1722/-170
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2018, 04:40:39 PM »
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:

Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.

Logged
When you are the beneficiary of someone’s kindness and generosity, it produces a sense of gratitude and community.

When you are the beneficiary of a policy that steals from someone and gives it to you in return for your vote, it produces a sense of entitlement and dependency.

Offline Ausonius

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 494
  • Reputation: +66/-4
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2018, 05:41:55 PM »
Just checked the Craigslist ad from Georgia Democrats offering to pay up to 6,000 (Sic!) people $15.00 each to listen to a speech last Friday by MAObama supporting the DEM candidate for Governor of Georgia.

So the DEMS will pay $90,000.00 for a paid crowd for MAObama! And under 2,000 showed up!!!   :-)

How much did the Republicans pay for today’s crowds in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri?  :tongue:

AMERICA is becoming GREAT AGAIN!  If that pathetic showing at Morehouse College - an Afro-American college! - is any indication, the DEMS will not be creating any "Blue Wave" tomorrow.



Love the "Wanna" for an ad for College Stoonts!   :thatsright:
Logged
"Every democracy eventually becomes a bilge pump expelling the most hilarious and unwitting self-satire."

Offline Ralph Wiggum

  • It's unpossible that I'm a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18564
  • Reputation: +2043/-49
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2018, 05:43:36 PM »
Quote from: jukin on November 05, 2018, 04:40:39 PM
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:

Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.

Maybe even blocking radio and TV waves as well.
Logged
Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender

Offline Karin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17547
  • Reputation: +1630/-80
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2018, 06:15:06 PM »
 :rotf:  at what Ausonius posted up there.  $15 flat fee for an entire evening?  Won't get anybody off the couch.  Plus, hoops to jump through to get said $15.  "Please do not share on social media."   :lmao: :lmao: :rotf:   Ya done broke the rulez, Ausonius.   :rulez:
Logged

Offline I_B_Perky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7530
  • Reputation: +718/-329
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2018, 07:57:31 PM »
Quote from: jukin on November 05, 2018, 04:40:39 PM
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:

Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.

 :lol: :lol: :lol:

You owe me a monitor jukin!!!  Especially the becoming sentient part.  H5!!!

Logged
Living in the Dummies minds rent free since 2009!

Montani Semper Liberi

Offline SVPete

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25920
  • Reputation: +2236/-242
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 07:40:38 AM »
Are we bumping to help someone give RandySF a lumping?
Logged
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline Ralph Wiggum

  • It's unpossible that I'm a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18564
  • Reputation: +2043/-49
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2018, 10:13:44 AM »
Didn't calculate the totals, but was RandySF about halfway correct?  Giant fail.

Welcome to your purple slushy. Please please please over reach with House control the next 2 years!  O'Rourke/Booker 2020!  Provide us with empty suit opposition.
Logged
Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender

Offline SVPete

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25920
  • Reputation: +2236/-242
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2018, 10:36:52 AM »
In regard to Congress, 2018 was not much of a referendum on Trump. The Ds flipped the House, but the number of seats flipped in Trump's first midterm was anemic compared to Clinton's, GWB's, and Obama's first midterms. OTOH, the Rs have improved their majority in the Senate, effectively taking the Thomas-Kavanaugh tactic off the table in judicial confirmation proceedings and decreasing the power of R waffles.

The Ds gained the ability to obstruct and attack Trump in the House. But to the degree they do so, Trump gains a big fat target, to the same degree.

In the Senate, the once extremely slim chance of Trump being removed from office if impeached is now approximately zero. The Ds' ability to obstruct Trump's judicial nominees is much diminished (RBG hurt worst). Loony-tooniness the Ds' might originate in the House - if they go that route - will be blocked in the Senate.

In sum, I think Trump "won" a split decision, and the Ds' victory in flipping the House could be Pyrrhic if they let TDS reign.
Logged
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline Skul

  • Sometimes I drink water just to surprise my liver
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12475
  • Reputation: +914/-179
  • Chief of the cathouse
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2018, 12:56:02 PM »
Quote from: jukin on November 05, 2018, 04:40:39 PM
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:

Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.
v   

Logged
Then-Chief Justice John Marshall observed, “Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos.”

John Adams warned in a letter, “Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet, that did not commit suicide.”

Offline SVPete

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25920
  • Reputation: +2236/-242
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2018, 02:22:16 PM »
Quote
GOVERNOR FLIP:
Alaska (R) - Correct
Iowa (D) - Incorrect
Illinois(D) - Correct
Maine (D) - Correct
Michigan (D) - Correct
New Mexico (D) - Correct
Nevada (D) - Correct
Ohio (D) - Incorrect
Wisconsin (D) - Correct

Didn't Predict:

Kansas flipped to D
Logged
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline Karin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17547
  • Reputation: +1630/-80
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2018, 06:10:59 PM »
He got NY22 wrong.  It kept R by a wide, wide margin. 
Logged

Offline BlueStateSaint

  • Here I come to save the day, because I'm a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32553
  • Reputation: +1560/-191
  • RIP FDNY Lt. Rich Nappi d. 4/16/12
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2018, 06:17:22 PM »
Quote from: Karin on November 07, 2018, 06:10:59 PM
He got NY22 wrong.  It kept R by a wide, wide margin.

It did?  I thought that Tenney got beat!
Logged
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

Chase her.
Chase her even when she's yours.
That's the only way you'll be assured to never lose her.

Offline SVPete

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25920
  • Reputation: +2236/-242
Re: Saving to see how this goes...
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2018, 06:43:02 PM »
Logged
If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »