The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: Karin on November 03, 2018, 09:27:26 PM
-
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211360684 (https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211360684)
Sat Nov 3, 2018, 08:02 PM
RandySF (21,518 posts)
My Election Night Predictions
Here we go. I am going to put my cards on the table and predict House flips and predictions of other kay races. I hope to be right on my most and wrong on others.
GOVERNOR FLIP:
Alaska (R)
Iowa (D)
Illinois(D)
Maine (D)
Michigan (D)
New Mexico (D)
Nevada (D)
Ohio (D)
Wisconsin (D)
SENATE FLIP:
Arizona (D)
Nevada (D)
North Dakota (R)
HOUSE FLIP TO D:
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IL=06
IL-14
IA-01
IA-03
KS-02
KS-03
ME-02
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NM-02
NJ-02
NJ03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
PA-01
PA-05
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
PA-17
TX-07
TX-32
VA-02
VA-05
VA-07
VA-10
WA-08
HOUSE FLIP TO R:
MN-08
PA-14
STATE CHAMBER FLIP:
CO Senate (D)
ME Senate (D)
MI House (D)
MN House (D)
WI Senate (D)
-
Meltdowns OTW :yahoo:
-
If early voting trends can predict anything, Republicans, not DEMS, are leading early voting nearly everywhere, from the statistics which I have seen.
One example from Georgia on how the MSM polls are skewed to demoralize Conservatives, i.e. their polls can just be wrong: in a special election for the House, a CNN poll not long before the election had the Republican Karen Handel losing by 7...
She won by +4 ! 11-point error!
-
If early voting trends can predict anything, Republicans, not DEMS, are leading early voting nearly everywhere, from the statistics which I have seen.
One example from Georgia on how the MSM polls are skewed to demoralize Conservatives, i.e. their polls can just be wrong: in a special election for the House, a CNN poll not long before the election had the Republican Karen Handel losing by 7...
She won by +4 ! 11-point error!
In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?
-
In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?
I also believe that Republicans aren't answering truthfully when being polled. Who wants to potentially make themselves a target of the charge of 'Racist' or 'Nazi' by saying you support Trump or a Trump supported candidate. I believe this contributed heavily to the surprising Trump victory in 2016.
-
I've said this several times before on different boards, but I was polled prior to the '16 election. When I got off the phone the pollster thought I was the biggest hitlary fan EVAH!
Joke was on him.
-
In Presidential elections the pattern in MSM polling used to be to over-sample Ds early, to discourage R voters, and then late in the campaign move closer to the actual outcome. In 2016 they broke that pattern and skewed their polls all the way through to Election Day,and were "surprised". Now, it's 2018, and Trump is still the object of obsessive MSM hatred. So, are the MSM going full-politicization of their polls again? Or have they reverted to their previous skew early, accuracy late pattern?
I have discovered that this researcher seems to be on target: we shall see!
FORGET ABOUT ALL DAMN POLLS INCLUDING FOX! HERE IS REALITY AND IT IS BRUTAL FOR THE DEMOCRATS…….
November 2, 2018
Reality is coming home to roost for the Democrats! The incredible Jobs Report will play an important factor on Independents that vote on Tuesday.
Immigration has completely taken over the focus for Independents in Arizona assuring not only will Martha McSally win but it won’t even be close. I suspect Immigration is going to play a major factor in many more states across our beautiful country. Understand that Immigration to Democrats is sunlight to a vampire. It will KILL them!
Democrats made a push yesterday in Early Voting in Florida but it is nowhere where they need it to be when compared to 2016.
Also from the thread above:
...The difference in Early Voting between 2016 versus 2018 is amazing for Republicans! At the end of Early Voting in 2016, Democrats had a 96,450 Early Voting advantage. Republicans currently have 58,530 Early Voting advantage.
That is a 154,980 Early Vote swing for Republicans
California House Republicans continue to do amazingly well during Early Voting! We have 9 House Seats where a Republican is the Incumbent in a contested race. There are 14 Republican House Members from California.
And...
...REAL VOTING DATA as of 11/1/18
Florida is looking better and better by the day for Republicans! Nearly 3.75 million people have voted early. The margin for the Republicans continues to increase each day (currently +63,537). Democrats had a lead of 96,450 at the end of Early Voting in 2016. The difference at this point is +159,987 for Republicans. We have an excellent chance of flipping FL-D7 and a good chance of flipping FL-D13.
We will not lose a single Republican House Seat....
(My emphasis above)
For charts, charts, and more charts and more specific state information, see:
https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/ (https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/)
-
Don't worry, DUmmy. We'll re examine this prediction in a few days.
-
The DUmbass actually has over 40 House seat switching from R to D. I have to assume he lives in a state where pot is legal.
-
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:
Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.
-
Just checked the Craigslist ad from Georgia Democrats offering to pay up to 6,000 (Sic!) people $15.00 each to listen to a speech last Friday by MAObama supporting the DEM candidate for Governor of Georgia.
So the DEMS will pay $90,000.00 for a paid crowd for MAObama! And under 2,000 showed up!!! :-)
How much did the Republicans pay for today’s crowds in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri? :tongue:
AMERICA is becoming GREAT AGAIN! If that pathetic showing at Morehouse College - an Afro-American college! - is any indication, the DEMS will not be creating any "Blue Wave" tomorrow.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrIVOl2XcAAkQpJ.jpg:large)
Love the "Wanna" for an ad for College Stoonts! :thatsright:
-
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:
Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.
Maybe even blocking radio and TV waves as well.
-
:rotf: at what Ausonius posted up there. $15 flat fee for an entire evening? Won't get anybody off the couch. Plus, hoops to jump through to get said $15. "Please do not share on social media." :lmao: :lmao: :rotf: Ya done broke the rulez, Ausonius. :rulez:
-
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:
Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
You owe me a monitor jukin!!! Especially the becoming sentient part. H5!!!
-
Are we bumping to help someone give RandySF a lumping?
-
Didn't calculate the totals, but was RandySF about halfway correct? Giant fail.
Welcome to your purple slushy. Please please please over reach with House control the next 2 years! O'Rourke/Booker 2020! Provide us with empty suit opposition.
-
In regard to Congress, 2018 was not much of a referendum on Trump. The Ds flipped the House, but the number of seats flipped in Trump's first midterm was anemic compared to Clinton's, GWB's, and Obama's first midterms. OTOH, the Rs have improved their majority in the Senate, effectively taking the Thomas-Kavanaugh tactic off the table in judicial confirmation proceedings and decreasing the power of R waffles.
The Ds gained the ability to obstruct and attack Trump in the House. But to the degree they do so, Trump gains a big fat target, to the same degree.
In the Senate, the once extremely slim chance of Trump being removed from office if impeached is now approximately zero. The Ds' ability to obstruct Trump's judicial nominees is much diminished (RBG hurt worst). Loony-tooniness the Ds' might originate in the House - if they go that route - will be blocked in the Senate.
In sum, I think Trump "won" a split decision, and the Ds' victory in flipping the House could be Pyrrhic if they let TDS reign.
-
Oh my schadenboner is going to be so tired after:
Lasting longer than 4 weeks.
Becoming sentient.
Having a 6 second radio delay.
v
(http://i65.tinypic.com/34dq42v.jpg)
-
GOVERNOR FLIP:
Alaska (R) - Correct
Iowa (D) - Incorrect
Illinois(D) - Correct
Maine (D) - Correct
Michigan (D) - Correct
New Mexico (D) - Correct
Nevada (D) - Correct
Ohio (D) - Incorrect
Wisconsin (D) - Correct
Didn't Predict:
Kansas flipped to D
-
He got NY22 wrong. It kept R by a wide, wide margin.
-
He got NY22 wrong. It kept R by a wide, wide margin.
It did? I thought that Tenney got beat!
-
It did? I thought that Tenney got beat!
Looks like she lost in a squeaker. (https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_22nd_Congressional_District_election,_2018)