Inflation Isn't the Worry -- For Now

[bijou]

Will the government's rescue plan to stabilize financial markets bring on higher inflation?No. The whole meltdown was deflationary. We saw it in the most dangerous fashion, in asset prices -- stocks, bonds and homes. That's going to hurt a person more than if gas prices are up 5%, which is what people were getting in a tizzy about. The only thing hanging in there was commodity prices, and now they've corrected. Now we'll see that disinflationary impact on consumer prices as well. What policymakers have done so far is truncate deflation. Is that the same as creating inflation? I don't think so.

Consumer prices are headed lower?Consumer-price inflation has peaked for the time being. The high point was 5.5% in July. A year from today, we'll probably see consumer-price inflation at 2% or below. Going from 5.5% to 2%, that's a perfect world.


What could go wrong?There is the small chance that consumer-price deflation could spiral out of control. If everything that I buy tomorrow will be cheaper than what I buy today, why should I spend today? If that happened, we'd see the price of goods get lower and lower every year. Everything the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Treasury have done is to arrest this downward spiral.

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Deflation is very much on the horizon in Britain at the moment.  It will be a tough time ahead if we do go into deflation.

[Vagabond]

Yep, deflation is vastly more damaging than the same amount of inflation.