live election thread (public) 11-04-14

[franksolich]

This is the general live election thread for November 4, 2014.

There are two other live election threads, one in the DUmpster that pertains specifically to primitives on Skins's island and other moonbats, and the other in Political Rants and Raves, a closed forum, where one's free to express opinions and feelings one doesn't necessarily want to be public.

This one here is wide open, very public, to newbies and lurkers.

So as to not abuse the sensitivities of some members--and remember, they have very good and valid reasons for being the way they are, and I don't blame them--please post primitive-related topics and comments in the live election thread in the DUmpster, not here.

[franksolich]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/math-is-forbidding-for-democrats-in-struggle-for-senate/2014/11/03/9415379e-638c-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_story.html

Oh my.

<<<still only cautious and modestly optimistic.

Math is forbidding for Democrats in struggle for Senate

On the last day of the 2014 campaign, Democrats knew they were in trouble.
 
Long ago, the party had given up hope of winning back the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections. By Monday, it had skipped ahead to winning the post-election blame game. “House Democrats have succeeded on every measure within our control,” the party’s House campaign committee announced preemptively in the early afternoon.
 
And at the end of a bitter and massively expensive campaign, it appeared the Senate might be slipping from Democrats’ grasp as well.
 
In all, there are 13 states where Senate seats might change from one party to the other. Republicans need to win nine of them to attain a 51-seat majority in the Senate for the first time since 2007. On Monday, Republicans seem to be leading, by a lot or by a little, in eight of those races.....

In Nebraska, where the polls close at 8:00 p.m. central time and 7:00 p.m. mountain time (two time zones in this state; I dunno which one dutch508's in) the Republican Benjamin Sasse is looking to win almost two-thirds of the vote against Democrat David Domina, if the polls hold true.

But that's a Republican "hold," not a "gain."

[franksolich]

http://nypost.com/2014/11/03/meet-the-republican-who-may-become-the-youngest-ever-woman-in-congress/

Oh my.

Meet the Republican who may become the youngest ever woman in Congress

WASHINGTON – An upstate New York Republican is slated Tuesday to shatter the congressional record of former Brooklyn Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.
 
Elise Stefanik, 30, is favored to win in New York’s upstate 21st District and break history as the youngest female to win a seat in the House. Holtzman was sworn in at age 31 in 1973 at a time when women weren’t even allowed in the congressional gym.
 
“I’m just sorry it’s a not a Democrat,” Holtzman told The Post. “But hats off to her. We need more young women in Congress.”.....

I dunno whose district this is--Carl's, Karin's, BlueStateSaint's?

Here in Nebraska, with three congressional seats, all currently Republican, two are securely safe--the one in Lincoln, and the one covering the western five-sixths of the whole state--but we're in trouble, perhaps deep trouble, with the Omaha seat.

The incumbent, Lee Terry, was challenged by the Tea Party during the primary, which left some really bad divisive feelings.  I dunno why the Tea Party didn't like him; he seemed more than sufficiently conservative to me.  His challenger finally endorsed him.....two days ago.

I dunno what's going to happen here.  This could be a Republican loss in the House.

But one remains hopeful.

[franksolich]

http://www.govexec.com/state-local/2014/11/governor-races-2014/97964/

Oh my.

Historic Number of Governors Could Lose in 2014

While the landscape of 2014 Senate races looks like it might tilt entirely in one direction at the end, this year's set of gubernatorial contests has only gotten more chaotic throughout the year. There is unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the key races and the potential for a record number of incumbents to lose their seats.

Out of 36 governor's races on the ballot this year, around a dozen are too close to call heading into Election Day.

Averages of the public polls show 11 sets of gubernatorial hopefuls within 4 percentage pointsand another six within 10 percentage points. By another measure, eight contests look like they could be won or lost by less than 2 points, a feat not seen in any election cycle since at least 1900.

What's more, this instability isn't just in open-seat races, which tend to be more unpredictable. A record 11 incumbents are in danger of losing their seats, not including Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie, who already went down in defeat by losing his August primary.

That means this year could break or tie the previous record for losses by incumbent governors—11, set in 1962. In 2010, by contrast, just two incumbents were unseated, though that year's midterms featured significantly more open races.....

We'll see.

Again, here in Nebraska, where the current Republican governor is retiring, the Republican candidate Pete Ricketts is favored to best the Democrat candidate Chuck Haasebrook by about two-to-one, if the polls are accurate.

But that would be a Republican "hold," not a "gain."

[franksolich]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/2/utahs-love-fights-stave-surging-democrat-final-str/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS#!

Oh my.

Utah’s Love poised to become first Haitian-American member of Congress

Fast-rising Republican star Mia Love could make history next week in her bid for a House seat from Utah, but first she’ll have to beat back a surprising late surge from Democrat Doug Owens.
 
A win for Ms. Love, the former mayor of Saratoga Springs, would make her the first black Republican woman and the first Haitian-American elected to Congress. She’s being challenged by Mr. Owens, a Salt Lake City lawyer and son of a former congressman who’s been closing the gap in recent polls......

Cross your fingers, folks.

[franksolich]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/us/politics/a-guide-to-what-to-watch-for-on-election-night.html?_r=0

What to Watch For as G.O.P. Expects Big Night at Polls

WASHINGTON — It is a recipe for sensory overload: Election returns will start flooding every device and screen Tuesday evening, capturing the outcomes of 36 governors’ contests, the battle for control of the Senate, nearly 50 competitive House races and countless ballot questions.

Some trends are clear: A big night is expected for Republicans, a dreary one for Democrats.

But some mysteries and many intriguing questions remain, and their answers will emerge throughout the evening. Here is a guide to what to watch for on election night, and how to cut through the cacophony.....

The suggestions at the link are:

How big of a win will this be for Republicans?
What do the results tell us about the 2016 presidential race?
Do the Clintons still have their magic?
What can be gleaned from the House races?
Will governors’ races mirror the congressional races?
What happens to the Obama coalition?
Who will get credit if Republicans win, and who deserves it?

[Dori]

Who will get credit if Republicans win, and who deserves it?

Obama

[franksolich]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-04/your-2014-election-night-viewers-guide-hour-by-hour

Your 2014 Election Night Viewer's Guide, Hour by Hour

6:00 p.m. CST: And we’re off!

---it suggests watching Georgia, Kentucky, and Virginia

6:30 p.m. CST

---it suggests watching North Carolina

7:00 p.m. CST: Bellwether time!

---it suggests watching New Hampshire, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, and Massachusetts

7:30 p.m. CST

---it suggests watching Arkansas

8:00 p.m. CST: Seriously drop everything right now and turn on a TV

---it suggests watching Colorado, Louisiana, Kansas, South Dakota, and Wisconsin--I dunno why it doesn't suggest watching Nebraska too

9:00 p.m. CST

---it suggests watching Iowa and Montana

10:00 p.m. CST

---it suggests watching California

11:00 p.m. CST and after...

---it suggests watching Alaska

[BlueStateSaint]

http://nypost.com/2014/11/03/meet-the-republican-who-may-become-the-youngest-ever-woman-in-congress/

Oh my.

I dunno whose district this is--Carl's, Karin's, BlueStateSaint's?

Here in Nebraska, with three congressional seats, all currently Republican, two are securely safe--the one in Lincoln, and the one covering the western five-sixths of the whole state--but we're in trouble, perhaps deep trouble, with the Omaha seat.

The incumbent, Lee Terry, was challenged by the Tea Party during the primary, which left some really bad divisive feelings.  I dunno why the Tea Party didn't like him; he seemed more than sufficiently conservative to me.  His challenger finally endorsed him.....two days ago.

I dunno what's going to happen here.  This could be a Republican loss in the House.

But one remains hopeful.

Not mine, Coach.  Karin's, definitely.  Carl's represented by Rep. Chris Gibson, who was targeted by the Dems for takeover . . . and then the candidate dropped the ball.

[franksolich]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/03/politics/7-things-will-happen-election-night/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

7 things that will almost definitely happen on election night

Happy Election Day, America. Things have changed since the last time everyone went to the polls. Then, Barack Obama was re-elected to a second four-year term. Now, he's been largely benched by his party, spending less time on the campaign trail than his much more popular wife, first lady Michelle Obama, former president Bill Clinton and potential future presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Midterm elections are more local affairs and the issues vary from contest to contest.
 
But midterms have national consequences, and what happens Tuesday will help determine what President Obama can get done in his final two years in office. It will tee up the coming 2016 presidential contest and give Americans the chance to try on a more powerful GOP as they start to think about who should be the next president......

The seven things:

#1 -- There will be a surprise
#2 -- Most Americans won't take part
#3 -- Democrats will lose the Senate
#4 -- Republicans will elect an African-American senator in the South
#5 -- There will be a runoff
#6 -- Not too much will change
#7 -- It will be a nail biter for incumbent governors

[thundley4]

#1 -- There will be a surprise Dick Durbin loses in Illinois? (Please)

#7 -- It will be a nail biter for incumbent governors Pat Quinn loses in Illinois? (Please)

[franksolich]

^^^from your lips to God's ears, sir.

[thundley4]

^^^from your lips to God's ears, sir.

I haven't even seen any TV ads by Jim Oberweis, but lots from Durbin. Durbin up 10+ in the polls so why is he wasting money?

Quinn v. Rauner is running a lot closer. Quinn leads by less than 1.

[BlueStateSaint]

Actually, thundley, I think that Mark Udall's cousin Tom--the Dem Senator from NM--may get beaten by  a Marine combat veteran.  Also, Al Franken's opponent is within 4 or 5 points.

[I_B_Perky]

Realclearpolitics has updates on their main page.

Only thing they have right now is Kentucky:
Grimes  36.6
McConnell  60.9

with zero reporting?  Maybe that was early voting? Dunno.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Dori]

Realclearpolitics has updates on their main page.

Only thing they have right now is Kentucky:
Grimes  36.6
McConnell  60.9

with zero reporting?  Maybe that was early voting? Dunno.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Are their polls closed? 

[ColonelCarrots]

Only thing I can see swaying the Florida Election in Charlie Crist's favor is Libertarian Adrian Wylie stealing Republican votes from Rick Scott.

[I_B_Perky]

Are their polls closed?

Yes. At least according to the local news station. Kentucky is part of their viewing area as is Ohio. Ohio and WV polls don't close until later. WV is 7:30. I think Ohio is 8:00 7:30.

CNN says 2 percent is in. 15,113 to 10,280 for McConnell.

[ColonelCarrots]

As I post this, 16 minutes until FL polls close. I predict Yea, Rick Scott, and Yea on Amendment 2 (Medical Marijuana).

[franksolich]

Early exit polls show GOP wins in KY, AR, CO, IA, KS, GA - if those hold, GOP Senate majority is certain. Watch VA - closer than expected.

Early exit polls show GOP wins in KY, AR, CO, IA, KS, GA - if those hold, GOP Senate majority is certain. Watch VA - closer than expected.— Sean Noble (@seannobledc)

[I_B_Perky]

Now CNN says 45,815 to 35,601 and have called McConnell the winner of the election in Kentucky! Seems that he is cleaning up in western kentucky which is typically a dem stronghold. All of western kentucky went red.

[franksolich]

Fox has called it for McConnell. That was fast.

South Carolina called.

[franksolich]

Republicans set for biggest House majority in 65 years... Developing...

[HawkHogan]

Fox has called it for McConnell. That was fast.

South Carolina called.

Awesome.  And Virginia is too close to call.

[franksolich]

Looks like Mitch will outperform his 2008 numbers. Even though a lot don't like Mitch, this portends well for the evening.