I doubt it. What we learned when we actually got to look at things in the flesh, rather than depending on our vaunted intelligence that insisted he was perhaps within six months of getting a nuclear weapon, was that thanks to being run by Arabs, there was really NOTHING likely to produce a weapon going on, in spite of Saddam THINKING there was and spending a lot of money on it. Could it have produced a weapon with the 15 additional years since then? Impossible to say, since that egg can't be unscrambled, though it's safe to say 'Not the way it was going.' The UN sanctions against Iraq were certainly the biggest factor hampering Saddam (Aside from, once again, the programs being run by Arabs) in keeping them from going anywhere, and whether those would have remained in place would depend on who followed Bush into office. As it turned out, the Iraq War was based on a mistake even though getting rid of Saddam was basically a good thing, whether it was worth the cost in our blood is another question entirely. And after the ultimate success of the war was thrown away by Bush's naive and ignorant but cocky successor, the 'Would have beens' are completely inscrutable.
I agree with almost all of that, and it really is impossible to predict. However, there was a drive for assistance from the Soviets/Russians, both sides were interested in forward movement with most of it under the usual guise of "medical purposes" or "energy production". Kind of like Iran is claiming right now.
I never based any of my opinions on all the cackling about who might have had what, etc... it was entirely based on facts: and that is what was found AFTER the invasion. Of course I wasn't there, but I considered the university evaluations and write-ups more reliable that anything coming from the DoD or news outlets. Of course, that could be flawed as well... who knows.
The raw materials were indeed, there. It is a fact. It had already been logged and sealed by the international teams, but it was there, nonetheless. And the university write-up that I read had actual photos of the plate based enrichment equipment. the old way didn't use what are generally refereed to today as centrifuges.
Left alone, I'm pretty sure Israel would have made sure the programs were never viable... at least to the best of their abilities. Who knows if or how long because, of course, I am completely speculating. But all the pieces were indeed there.
I wish I would have saved all of those because right now I sound like LaydeeBug screaming TREEEEEEEEZON! with no evidence, and that "bugs" me. I'll try to spend some time on searching for them this weekend because regardless of one's views or opinions, the write-ups were very interesting reading. Some here might enjoy reading them as much as I did.
On a side note, I never considered the "WMD" argument as THE reason anyway. I think that was mostly just PR material in an attempt to change public opinion, although partially valid view at the time.
That sonofabitch was routinely shooting at our aircraft over there and being a general dickhead. He needed a rocket up his ass and it's exactly what he got.
