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Author Topic: One-time polls are stupid...except this one  (Read 401 times)

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Offline SSG Snuggle Bunny

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One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« on: March 13, 2012, 02:24:37 PM »
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highplainsdem (9,430 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: The sky isn't falling—Obama bounces upward

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/13/1073989/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-Poll-The-sky-isn-t-falling-Obama-bounces-upward

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 3/8-11. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (Obama trendlines 3/1-4, all others 2/23-26):

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA 48 (47) 47 (49) 3
DEMOCRATIC PARTY 44 (44) 47 (47) 0
REPUBLICAN PARTY 31 (31) 56 (57) 1

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA 48 (46) 49 (50) 3
HARRY REID 21 (19) 45 (49) 6
MITCH MCCONNELL 18 (16) 43 (43) 2

This is why you should never, ever trust just a single poll to tell you what's happening with the state of the nation. Two surveys released on Monday to great fanfare—one from the New York Times, the other from the Washington Post—both showed Barack Obama's approval rating falling. Both polls got a lot of attention and provoked a lot of consternation. I even got a worried email from my mother.

But one poll does not a trend make. And two polls from different polling outfits don't make a trend either, since you need to compare apples to apples: the NYT's new numbers to their old, and likewise for the WaPo. Wait until next month's surveys, at least, before concluding that there's some genuine downward movement to Obama's numbers. After all, the president may very well bounce back by then, and all this wailing will look rather foolish.

-snip-

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002419538

Remain calm, all is well!
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2012, 02:26:18 PM »
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! :tongue: :lmao: :rotf: :rofl:

ETA:  Especially when gas prices continue to rise! :evillaugh:
« Last Edit: March 13, 2012, 02:28:46 PM by BlueStateSaint »
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Offline njpines

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2012, 02:28:37 PM »
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Offline Karin

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2012, 02:36:16 PM »
The DUmp didn't have much to say (K&R), so I went to Kos.  They spent a lot of time bragging to each other about how little gas they have to buy due to their electric toy cars. 
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2012, 02:36:55 PM »
Of course the poll numbers for Obama and Democrats are awesome, it's not like gas prices, unemployment, spending and the misery index are high.
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Offline Chris_

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2012, 02:40:55 PM »
Reid is only up by a couple of points from the big, scary GOP boogeyman.

Doesn't say much for Harry Reid.
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Offline jukin

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2012, 04:39:52 PM »
Let me take a wild stab at the poll internals:

Communists: 26
Demokrats: 45
Independents: 19
Republicans: 10

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Offline Skul

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2012, 04:44:11 PM »
Quote from: jukin on March 13, 2012, 04:39:52 PM
Let me take a wild stab at the poll internals:

Communists: 26
Demokrats: 45
Independents: 19
Republicans: 10
Too many indepenents.  More like 9. :-)
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Offline RWKindaGuy

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Re: One-time polls are stupid...except this one
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2012, 06:24:14 PM »
Quote from: Skul on March 13, 2012, 04:44:11 PM
Too many indepenents.  More like 9. :-)

And all registered voters, not likely voters.  Nothing like having a bunch of drunk/high college students skewing the numbers.
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