Author Topic: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit  (Read 1857 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58679
  • Reputation: +3057/-173
poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« on: May 12, 2012, 05:26:49 PM »
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002679868

Oh my.

Grouchy old Don from Cook County leads off:

Quote
NNN0LHI (65,146 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

2012 election a `50-50 proposition' for Obama, top pollster says

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-la-pn-peter-hart-2012-obama-romney-20120511,0,4157284.story

WASHINGTON -- Few strategists watch American politics with greater sophistication than Peter D. Hart. In addition to his work for Democratic candidates, the Washington-based pollster has been conducting opinion surveys for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal since 1989. He’s one of the rare individuals in politics whose judgment is respected by insiders in both parties. So, when he has something to say, he’s well worth paying attention to.

Hart has just sent out his preview of the 2012 election, now less than six months away. His assessment may come as a rude surprise to those in his party who are feeling bullish about President Obama’s chances.

“This election is no better than a 50-50 proposition for the president,” concludes Hart, basing that on his polling, focus-group discussions and personal conversations with professional pols.

Like others who have been watching the campaign up close, he perceives an electorate that is “wanting wholesale change for the fourth election in a row.” Comparing 2012 to 1992 -- the last time a president was unseated -- he notes that economic confidence, as measured by the latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, is at 76. It was 77 when the first president Bush was headed for defeat.

Quote
cali (70,905 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

1. I get a sick feeling from reading that.

but that's my (unsophisticated) take on it.

Quote
Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

4. Seriously, don't worry.

I fully expect Allan Lichtman's non-mathematic methodology to have predicted the winner again.

Quote
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

9. Me, too, especially after seeing an article last week that tried to claim central FLORIDA was crucial to the contest.

I wanted to vomit.

Quote
Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

2. I can't help but think

That the specifics of economic statistics are irrelevant in many respects this time around.

He mentions 1992, but that was after 12 years of more or less the same administration; when things dipped, it was squarely on Bush, he'd been there or thereabouts since 1980. He also happened to be facing a once in a lifetime politician in Bill Clinton.

There has been poll after poll which shows the majority do not blame Obama for the economy as much as they do the previous information. As long as the message is right, the specifics of the economy are going to be much less important than people think.

Quote
onehandle (29,508 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

3. Hope he's wrong. 50-50 = GOP Win.

Quote
jaysunb (7,365 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

5. This quote says it all...

"The German shepherd election is one in which the dog (the electorate) looks at an intruder (the officeholders) and barks and growls with great ferocity but in the end, rarely attacks or does much damage. By contrast the Doberman attacks with the intent to do bodily harm,” writes Hart. “The question to be resolved is whether the voters will just bark or attack.”

Quote
liberal N proud (38,565 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

6. They are setting up to steal it

Make the claim that the polls are close, it's a dead heat and they are 50 - 50, is the setup to make a GOP plausable enough that it cannot be questioned.

Quote
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

8. You beat me.

Quote
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

7. The Republican base hates RMoney.

He's the BushCo candidate.

The math is easy.

Dream on, primitives; or, in the case of poor stupid Beth, vomit on.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Freeper

  • Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17779
  • Reputation: +1311/-314
  • Creepy ass cracker.
Re: Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2012, 05:30:28 PM »
Right on cue they claim if the repukes win, it has to be fraud.
I may not lock my doors while sitting at a red light and a black man is near, but I sure as hell grab on tight to my wallet when any democrats are close by.

Offline Ballygrl

  • Lipstick Renegade
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14934
  • Reputation: +983/-120
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2012, 05:41:13 PM »




Quote
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline miskie

  • Mailman for the VRWC
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10449
  • Reputation: +1015/-54
  • Make America Great Again. Deport some DUmmies.
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2012, 05:46:29 PM »
Quote from: liberal N proud (38,565 posts)

6. They are setting up to steal it

Make the claim that the polls are close, it's a dead heat and they are 50 - 50, is the setup to make a GOP plausable enough that it cannot be questioned.

Who are "They" ? This pollster works for Democrats. If he thinks its bad news for Obama this early on, then Obama is 'well and truly screwn'.

Quote from: EFerrari (162,184 posts)

7. The Republican base hates RMoney.

He's the BushCo candidate.

The math is easy.

There is an age-old Cliché involving politics and politicians. "Conservatives fall in line, while Liberals fall in love" Most conservatives will find enough appealing about Romney to vote for him, regardless of their opinion of him during the primaries. Even if that only appealing point is that Romney is not Obama. Sure, some fringe folks will vote 3rd party or not vote for president at all, -as is their right- but the majority will vote for 'RMoney' anyway.

And BTW -

All these little anecdotal Romney stories that your side is generating ? All they are doing is helping to push the undecideds toward Romney. Keep it up, please.  


Offline BEG

  • "Mile Marker"
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17277
  • Reputation: +1062/-301
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2012, 06:25:15 PM »
You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.

Offline GOBUCKS

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24186
  • Reputation: +1812/-338
  • All in all, not bad, not bad at all
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2012, 06:45:09 PM »
You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.

I wonder if crazy JimRob and all his DUmpmonkey trolls will ever rally around.

Offline miskie

  • Mailman for the VRWC
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10449
  • Reputation: +1015/-54
  • Make America Great Again. Deport some DUmmies.
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2012, 06:55:10 PM »
I wonder if crazy JimRob and all his DUmpmonkey trolls will ever rally around.

I'm not sure of that. It does seem he has taken the same turn that LGF did a few years back. But on the other side of the coin, the former PUMA site hillbuzz seems to be getting more conservative by the day-- Even though its primarily run by all those gay folks that RMoney wants to cut the hair off of.. Funny that..  :whatever:

However, the one thing I am sure of is FR has lost a great deal of the influence on politics it once had. Very much like DU.

Offline jukin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15735
  • Reputation: +1713/-170
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2012, 06:58:19 PM »
You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.

You hit the head of the nail there BEG.

0bama has united the various sections of the country that are realists.
The attacks on Romney will only solidify those half heatedly supporting ABO into high motivation voters.

Also Rasmussen has highly pissed of at 0bma at 43% strongly opposed to 0 and 21% strongly approving of the economic illiterate and dog eater Obama. That is what is called enthusiasm and the donks don't have it.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 07:02:37 PM by jukin »
When you are the beneficiary of someone’s kindness and generosity, it produces a sense of gratitude and community.

When you are the beneficiary of a policy that steals from someone and gives it to you in return for your vote, it produces a sense of entitlement and dependency.

Offline Kyle Ricky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7596
  • Reputation: +614/-1086
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2012, 10:00:57 PM »
What poll is it that puts Romney ahead of Obama? They just mentioned it the other day. God, I hope Romney wins. Four more years of Obama will kill us.

Offline BEG

  • "Mile Marker"
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17277
  • Reputation: +1062/-301
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2012, 10:24:04 PM »
What poll is it that puts Romney ahead of Obama? They just mentioned it the other day. God, I hope Romney wins. Four more years of Obama will kill us.

Rasmussen has Romney up by 8

Offline Kyle Ricky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7596
  • Reputation: +614/-1086
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2012, 10:25:51 PM »
Rasmussen has Romney up by 8

Hmm, I thought it was something like an ABC Poll or something? Thanks, Beg.

Offline Ballygrl

  • Lipstick Renegade
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14934
  • Reputation: +983/-120
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2012, 10:28:57 PM »
Rasmussen has Romney up by 8

Oh my! Romneys gone up 1 more point.
Quote
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline BEG

  • "Mile Marker"
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17277
  • Reputation: +1062/-301
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2012, 10:33:50 PM »
Oh my! Romneys gone up 1 more point.

Romney 50% Obama 42% as of today

Offline Kyle Ricky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7596
  • Reputation: +614/-1086
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2012, 10:44:30 PM »
Politico has Romney up by one.

Offline Ballygrl

  • Lipstick Renegade
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14934
  • Reputation: +983/-120
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2012, 10:49:57 PM »
The thing though is this, Obama is polling below 50%, the Independents are breaking for Romney.
Quote
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline Kyle Ricky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7596
  • Reputation: +614/-1086
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2012, 10:54:17 PM »
The thing though is this, Obama is polling below 50%, the Independents are breaking for Romney.

I didn't think of it that way. It is a given that Obama is going to lose a lot of the independent votes this time. Any independent who votes for him after the mess he caused aren't really independents. They are liberals in sheep clothing.

Offline Ballygrl

  • Lipstick Renegade
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14934
  • Reputation: +983/-120
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2012, 10:58:29 PM »
http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/05/07/romney-opens-10-point-lead-among-independents/

Romney opens 10-point lead among Independents

Quote
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds the presidential race between President  Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to be very close, with Romney leading by a single point — 48% to 47%, among likely voters.

More important is the 10-point lead, 48% to 38%, Romney has among the critical Independents voters. That confirms Romney’s six point lead among Independets that Gallup found last month.
Quote
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline Kyle Ricky

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7596
  • Reputation: +614/-1086
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2012, 11:00:18 PM »
http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/05/07/romney-opens-10-point-lead-among-independents/

Romney opens 10-point lead among Independents


I saw this the other day and liked it. The "TRUE" independents will not be voting for him this time.

Offline Doubleplusungood

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 609
  • Reputation: +38/-87
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2012, 09:17:22 AM »
Quote
Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

2. I can't help but think

That the specifics of economic statistics are irrelevant in many respects this time around.

He mentions 1992, but that was after 12 years of more or less the same administration; when things dipped, it was squarely on Bush, he'd been there or thereabouts since 1980. He also happened to be facing a once in a lifetime politician in Bill Clinton.

There has been poll after poll which shows the majority do not blame Obama for the economy as much as they do the previous information. As long as the message is right, the specifics of the economy are going to be much less important than people think.

In your wet dreams DUmb shit. Not even the left is unified in blaming Bush any longer or didn't you notice a prison inmate get 40% of the vote against Obama in a state he won last time around? You will not be able to lie your way to election victory. Your only hope is voter fraud and I doubt you can create enough of it this time around. Prepare yourself for a 40 state landslide loss as well as losing control of the Senate. Even better is that there is momentum to overturn and repeal not only Obamacare, but several other back breaking liberal vote buying scams as well. Its going to be the dark ages for liberals for the next generation at least. Get your pathetic mind wrapped around that future and move to Cuba.

Offline DumbAss Tanker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28493
  • Reputation: +1707/-151
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2012, 09:47:56 AM »
Polling data this far out is only useful for campaign planners and motivating bases, it has virtually no predictive value by itself.
Go and tell the Spartans, O traveler passing by
That here, obedient to their law, we lie.

Anything worth shooting once is worth shooting at least twice.

Offline Ballygrl

  • Lipstick Renegade
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14934
  • Reputation: +983/-120
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2012, 10:16:15 AM »
Polling data this far out is only useful for campaign planners and motivating bases, it has virtually no predictive value by itself.

Nope, but I have to admit it freaks them out LOL.
Quote
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline DumbAss Tanker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28493
  • Reputation: +1707/-151
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2012, 10:43:02 AM »
Yeah, it IS such great fun to watch them squirm!

 :cheersmate:
Go and tell the Spartans, O traveler passing by
That here, obedient to their law, we lie.

Anything worth shooting once is worth shooting at least twice.

Offline GOBUCKS

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 24186
  • Reputation: +1812/-338
  • All in all, not bad, not bad at all
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2012, 11:12:14 AM »
Quote
a prison inmate get 40% of the vote against Obama in a state he won last time around?


McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58679
  • Reputation: +3057/-173
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2012, 11:15:39 AM »


McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.

Yeah, that's another shift I've seen in my lifetime.

When I was growing up, West Virginia was one of the most-reliably Democrat states.

I was still in that old mindset back in 2000, when George Bush carried it.

One wonders when the last time was, the Democrat presidential candidate carried West Virginia.

But I do recall at one time, for decades West Virginia was about as reliable as Massachusetts.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Doubleplusungood

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 609
  • Reputation: +38/-87
Re: poor stupid Beth wants to vomit
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2012, 11:27:38 AM »


McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.

My bad, got my signals crossed. Thanks for the correction.