The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on May 12, 2012, 05:26:49 PM
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002679868
Oh my.
Grouchy old Don from Cook County leads off:
NNN0LHI (65,146 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
2012 election a `50-50 proposition' for Obama, top pollster says
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-la-pn-peter-hart-2012-obama-romney-20120511,0,4157284.story
WASHINGTON -- Few strategists watch American politics with greater sophistication than Peter D. Hart. In addition to his work for Democratic candidates, the Washington-based pollster has been conducting opinion surveys for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal since 1989. He’s one of the rare individuals in politics whose judgment is respected by insiders in both parties. So, when he has something to say, he’s well worth paying attention to.
Hart has just sent out his preview of the 2012 election, now less than six months away. His assessment may come as a rude surprise to those in his party who are feeling bullish about President Obama’s chances.
“This election is no better than a 50-50 proposition for the president,†concludes Hart, basing that on his polling, focus-group discussions and personal conversations with professional pols.
Like others who have been watching the campaign up close, he perceives an electorate that is “wanting wholesale change for the fourth election in a row.†Comparing 2012 to 1992 -- the last time a president was unseated -- he notes that economic confidence, as measured by the latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, is at 76. It was 77 when the first president Bush was headed for defeat.
cali (70,905 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
1. I get a sick feeling from reading that.
but that's my (unsophisticated) take on it.
Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
4. Seriously, don't worry.
I fully expect Allan Lichtman's non-mathematic methodology to have predicted the winner again.
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
9. Me, too, especially after seeing an article last week that tried to claim central FLORIDA was crucial to the contest.
I wanted to vomit.
Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
2. I can't help but think
That the specifics of economic statistics are irrelevant in many respects this time around.
He mentions 1992, but that was after 12 years of more or less the same administration; when things dipped, it was squarely on Bush, he'd been there or thereabouts since 1980. He also happened to be facing a once in a lifetime politician in Bill Clinton.
There has been poll after poll which shows the majority do not blame Obama for the economy as much as they do the previous information. As long as the message is right, the specifics of the economy are going to be much less important than people think.
onehandle (29,508 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
3. Hope he's wrong. 50-50 = GOP Win.
jaysunb (7,365 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
5. This quote says it all...
"The German shepherd election is one in which the dog (the electorate) looks at an intruder (the officeholders) and barks and growls with great ferocity but in the end, rarely attacks or does much damage. By contrast the Doberman attacks with the intent to do bodily harm,†writes Hart. “The question to be resolved is whether the voters will just bark or attack.â€
liberal N proud (38,565 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
6. They are setting up to steal it
Make the claim that the polls are close, it's a dead heat and they are 50 - 50, is the setup to make a GOP plausable enough that it cannot be questioned.
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
8. You beat me.
EFerrari (162,184 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
7. The Republican base hates RMoney.
He's the BushCo candidate.
The math is easy.
Dream on, primitives; or, in the case of poor stupid Beth, vomit on.
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Right on cue they claim if the repukes win, it has to be fraud.
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(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/obamaeconomicrecord.jpg)
(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/November.jpg)
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6. They are setting up to steal it
Make the claim that the polls are close, it's a dead heat and they are 50 - 50, is the setup to make a GOP plausable enough that it cannot be questioned.
Who are "They" ? This pollster works for Democrats. If he thinks its bad news for Obama this early on, then Obama is 'well and truly screwn'.
7. The Republican base hates RMoney.
He's the BushCo candidate.
The math is easy.
There is an age-old Cliché involving politics and politicians. "Conservatives fall in line, while Liberals fall in love" Most conservatives will find enough appealing about Romney to vote for him, regardless of their opinion of him during the primaries. Even if that only appealing point is that Romney is not Obama. Sure, some fringe folks will vote 3rd party or not vote for president at all, -as is their right- but the majority will vote for 'RMoney' anyway.
And BTW -
All these little anecdotal Romney stories that your side is generating ? All they are doing is helping to push the undecideds toward Romney. Keep it up, please.
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You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.
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You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.
I wonder if crazy JimRob and all his DUmpmonkey trolls will ever rally around.
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I wonder if crazy JimRob and all his DUmpmonkey trolls will ever rally around.
I'm not sure of that. It does seem he has taken the same turn that LGF did a few years back. But on the other side of the coin, the former PUMA site hillbuzz seems to be getting more conservative by the day-- Even though its primarily run by all those gay folks that RMoney wants to cut the hair off of.. Funny that.. :whatever:
However, the one thing I am sure of is FR has lost a great deal of the influence on politics it once had. Very much like DU.
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You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.
You hit the head of the nail there BEG.
0bama has united the various sections of the country that are realists.
The attacks on Romney will only solidify those half heatedly supporting ABO into high motivation voters.
Also Rasmussen has highly pissed of at 0bma at 43% strongly opposed to 0 and 21% strongly approving of the economic illiterate and dog eater Obama. That is what is called enthusiasm and the donks don't have it.
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What poll is it that puts Romney ahead of Obama? They just mentioned it the other day. God, I hope Romney wins. Four more years of Obama will kill us.
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What poll is it that puts Romney ahead of Obama? They just mentioned it the other day. God, I hope Romney wins. Four more years of Obama will kill us.
Rasmussen has Romney up by 8
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Rasmussen has Romney up by 8
Hmm, I thought it was something like an ABC Poll or something? Thanks, Beg.
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Rasmussen has Romney up by 8
Oh my! Romneys gone up 1 more point.
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Oh my! Romneys gone up 1 more point.
Romney 50% Obama 42% as of today
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Politico has Romney up by one.
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The thing though is this, Obama is polling below 50%, the Independents are breaking for Romney.
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The thing though is this, Obama is polling below 50%, the Independents are breaking for Romney.
I didn't think of it that way. It is a given that Obama is going to lose a lot of the independent votes this time. Any independent who votes for him after the mess he caused aren't really independents. They are liberals in sheep clothing.
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http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/05/07/romney-opens-10-point-lead-among-independents/
Romney opens 10-point lead among Independents
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds the presidential race between President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to be very close, with Romney leading by a single point — 48% to 47%, among likely voters.
More important is the 10-point lead, 48% to 38%, Romney has among the critical Independents voters. That confirms Romney’s six point lead among Independets that Gallup found last month.
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http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/05/07/romney-opens-10-point-lead-among-independents/
Romney opens 10-point lead among Independents
I saw this the other day and liked it. The "TRUE" independents will not be voting for him this time.
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Mutiny In Heaven (45 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore
2. I can't help but think
That the specifics of economic statistics are irrelevant in many respects this time around.
He mentions 1992, but that was after 12 years of more or less the same administration; when things dipped, it was squarely on Bush, he'd been there or thereabouts since 1980. He also happened to be facing a once in a lifetime politician in Bill Clinton.
There has been poll after poll which shows the majority do not blame Obama for the economy as much as they do the previous information. As long as the message is right, the specifics of the economy are going to be much less important than people think.
In your wet dreams DUmb shit. Not even the left is unified in blaming Bush any longer or didn't you notice a prison inmate get 40% of the vote against Obama in a state he won last time around? You will not be able to lie your way to election victory. Your only hope is voter fraud and I doubt you can create enough of it this time around. Prepare yourself for a 40 state landslide loss as well as losing control of the Senate. Even better is that there is momentum to overturn and repeal not only Obamacare, but several other back breaking liberal vote buying scams as well. Its going to be the dark ages for liberals for the next generation at least. Get your pathetic mind wrapped around that future and move to Cuba.
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Polling data this far out is only useful for campaign planners and motivating bases, it has virtually no predictive value by itself.
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Polling data this far out is only useful for campaign planners and motivating bases, it has virtually no predictive value by itself.
Nope, but I have to admit it freaks them out LOL.
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Yeah, it IS such great fun to watch them squirm!
:cheersmate:
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a prison inmate get 40% of the vote against Obama in a state he won last time around?
McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.
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McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.
Yeah, that's another shift I've seen in my lifetime.
When I was growing up, West Virginia was one of the most-reliably Democrat states.
I was still in that old mindset back in 2000, when George Bush carried it.
One wonders when the last time was, the Democrat presidential candidate carried West Virginia.
But I do recall at one time, for decades West Virginia was about as reliable as Massachusetts.
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McCain won West Virginia easily in 2008.
My bad, got my signals crossed. Thanks for the correction.
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Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Iowa:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Apr/03/iowa_republicans_outnumber_democrats__state_says.html
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Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Iowa:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Apr/03/iowa_republicans_outnumber_democrats__state_says.html
About time, way past due.
Iowa was one of the most reliably-Republican states up through 1972, then they went moonbat.
I don't know what's the matter with Iowa, but it needs to go back to its roots.
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Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Iowa:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Apr/03/iowa_republicans_outnumber_democrats__state_says.html
Rove's map still shows the muslim with a big lead in Iowa.
But it also shows South Carolina as a tossup, so it's questionable.
http://static01.mediaite.com/med/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/karl-rove-electoral-map.png
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You attacking his wife, Romney in high school and his grandchildren have made us rally around him. Your side always goes too far, you end up screwing yourself every time.
Ann Romney is so much classier and genuine than Meechelle could ever wish to be. I would be proud to have Ann Romney as our first lady. Michelle Obama? Classless, spendthrift, lying, Chicago thugette.
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Yeah, that's another shift I've seen in my lifetime.
When I was growing up, West Virginia was one of the most-reliably Democrat states.
I was still in that old mindset back in 2000, when George Bush carried it.
One wonders when the last time was, the Democrat presidential candidate carried West Virginia.
But I do recall at one time, for decades West Virginia was about as reliable as Massachusetts.
The shift started with Clinton's "sensible gun control".
It became an avalanche with the muslim's war on coal.
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Ann Romney is so much classier and genuine than Meechelle could ever wish to be. I would be proud to have Ann Romney as our first lady. Michelle Obama? Classless, spendthrift, lying, Chicago thugette.
I agree, ^5
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The shift started with Clinton's "sensible gun control".
It became an avalanche with the muslim's war on coal.
I looked it up.
In the Republican landslide of 1988, it was one of only ten states, and the only southern state (as defined by the US Census), to give its electoral votes to Michael Dukakis; it was one of only six states to support Jimmy Carter over Ronald Reagan in 1980; and it supported Bill Clinton by large margins in both 1992 and 1996. The state has trended increasingly Republican in presidential elections; despite the earlier Democratic wins in presidential match-ups, it narrowly elected George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000, then re-elected Bush by a much larger margin in 2004 and voted for John McCain in 2008 by a similar margin to 2004.
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This has to be pointed out, because some don't seem aware of something:
In the Republican landslide of 1988.....
Everybody remembers the Republican landslide of 1984, but damned few ever seem to recall the Republican landslides of 1980 and 1988; the last presidents elected in landslides.
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This has to be pointed out, because some don't seem aware of something:
Everybody remembers the Republican landslide of 1984, but damned few ever seem to recall the Republican landslides of 1980 and 1988; the last presidents elected in landslides.
And I am hoping this one is a landslide as well.
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And I am hoping this one is a landslide as well.
What kind of landslide? I'm hoping for a Republican landslide, myself.
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About time, way past due.
Iowa was one of the most reliably-Republican states up through 1972, then they went moonbat.
I don't know what's the matter with Iowa, but it needs to go back to its roots.
Very similar to the way Vermont used to be, I miss those day's.
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Very similar to the way Vermont used to be, I miss those days.
Uh huh.
Vermont was distinctive in their rock-ribbed Republican-ness, but the primitives ruined Vermont.
Permanently; Vermont's not worth trying to salvage any more.
That's why I've always been in favor of, rather than dumping nuclear wastes on the fragile ecosystem of Nevada, we use Vermont for that purpose. It's ruined permanently anyway.
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(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/obamaeconomicrecord.jpg)
(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/November.jpg)
You're going to be getting a few Hi5s from me. For the info, the raping, and your sig. :lmao:
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What kind of landslide? I'm hoping for a Republican landslide, myself.
I am hoping for Obama to be beat so bad that he has to go back to Kenya in disgrace. My dream is that he gets less than 49 electoral votes (That is why Jimmy Carter got in 1980).
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Uh huh.
Vermont was distinctive in their rock-ribbed Republican-ness, but the primitives ruined Vermont.
Permanently; Vermont's not worth trying to salvage any more.
That's why I've always been in favor of, rather than dumping nuclear wastes on the fragile ecosystem of Nevada, we use Vermont for that purpose. It's ruined permanently anyway.
And what's worse, it's infested with earwigs.
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Uh huh.
Vermont was distinctive in their rock-ribbed Republican-ness, but the primitives ruined Vermont.
Permanently; Vermont's not worth trying to salvage any more.
That's why I've always been in favor of, rather than dumping nuclear wastes on the fragile ecosystem of Nevada, we use Vermont for that purpose. It's ruined permanently anyway.
I respectfully disagree Frank, given the relatively small population of Vermont it really would only take a project like the Free State Project to turn them back away from the dark side.
For those not familiar with this project I will include a link. Cliff note version is a group of people would move into a sparsely populated state and if the group were big enough and continue to grow they could influence the direction of said state.
http://freestateproject.org/
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I respectfully disagree Frank, given the relatively small population of Vermont it really would only take a project like the Free State Project to turn them back away from the dark side.
For those not familiar with this project I will include a link. Cliff note version is a group of people would move into a sparsely populated state and if the group were big enough and continue to grow they could influence the direction of said state.
http://freestateproject.org/
I'm aware of that project, but I thought it was aimed at New Hampshire, not Vermont, even though Vermont needs it a Hell of a lot more than New Hampshire.
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I'm aware of that project, but I thought it was aimed at New Hampshire, not Vermont, even though Vermont needs it a Hell of a lot more than New Hampshire.
You are correct it is New Hampshire mostly because of their lower taxes, livability, and their system of state governance (400 members of congress). It is possible if a project like that could be implemented properly. You could imagine that once it started to turn in that direction more people would continue to join in until it became a bastion of conservative philosophy.
I believe the FSP has for the most part stalled but the idea is valid.
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I'm aware of that project, but I thought it was aimed at New Hampshire, not Vermont, even though Vermont needs it a Hell of a lot more than New Hampshire.
The "Free State Project" is as realistic as chemtrails and MIHOP.
You may get twenty thousand people to suddenly pull up stakes and move into a state, but most of them will be from Mexico.
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I am hoping for Obama to be beat so bad that he has to go back to Kenya in disgrace. My dream is that he gets less than 49 electoral votes (That is why Jimmy Carter got in 1980).
Will he be beat so bad he will have to go back onto a dog diet in Kenya ?
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You're going to be getting a few Hi5s from me. For the info, the raping, and your sig. :lmao:
I love the elephant and donkey 1 too! :lmao:
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Will he be beat so bad he will have to go back onto a dog diet in Kenya ?
Unfortunately, California has, what--55?
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(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/obamaeconomicrecord.jpg)
(http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj140/RepublicanandProud/November.jpg)
^5 and again to come - you always get the best graphics
:cheersmate: :rotf: