The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2010 => Topic started by: BlueStateSaint on November 07, 2009, 05:50:03 AM
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I got this off of The Absurd Report. Even though it's not an AP article, I'm only posting the first
five six paragraphs.
Is The Pendulum About To Swing Back? By J.T. YOUNG
The Bear on Nov 06 2009 at 9:15 am | Filed under: Politics
The political guns barely fall silent from one campaign before resuming a barrage in the next. They’re rumbling now in New Jersey and Virginia — the first skirmish before next year’s national midterm elections.
American politics usually stays in a narrow range: Two parties collide and congressional totals don’t change much. When changes do occur, it is usually the result of one side’s supporters staying home. The effect is an illusion of great swings in the electorate.
The 2008 election followed this pattern in part. A Census Bureau study found that non-Hispanic whites’ voting rate declined by 1 percentage point from 2004, and an exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International showed this group backed John McCain 55% to 43% for Barack Obama.
But America was knocked out of its traditionally tight range in another way. New-entrant voting rates for blacks, Hispanics and Asians each increased by 4 percentage points, and the exit poll showed Obama taking 95%, 65%, and 62% of these groups, respectively.
Barack Obama’s 6.3% margin translated into a political landslide, and Democrats won the largest congressional majorities in three decades.
Will next year’s election swing just as dramatically — though perhaps in the opposite direction? It’s too early to say, but there are reasons to believe it might.
The rest is here:
http://www.theabsurdreport.com/2009/is-the-pendulum-about-to-swing-back-by-j-t-young/
If Pelosi succeeds in choking the Health Care "Reform" through, I'm going to say that 100+ seats will switch next year. Pelosi will not be in the House Democratic leadership after the disaster.