"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump...

[dutch508]

Star Member brooklynite (63,815 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214091298

"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college"
The Economist

Chance of winning the electoral college:
Joe Biden: around 6 in 7 or 86%
Donald Trump: around 1 in 7 or 13%

Estimated Electoral College Votes:
Joe Biden: 335
Donald Trump: 203

Modelled popular vote:
Joe Biden: 53%
Donald Trump: 47%

    

[DumbAss Tanker]

The Economist?  Bwahahahaha!

[franksolich]

And President Trump is up yet another digit in the polls this morning, an approval rating of 53%.

I wonder what the record is; it seems it's something like that.

One also wonders how well Obama did about this same time in his presidency; it seems not as well.

[Karin]

Star Member CTyankee (57,163 posts)

5. not sure how this works out, tho. Covid is super scary and when the voter thinks of who didn't

protect them against the virus, they think of Trump. That's a gut punch, IMO...

A political figure cannot protect you from a virus, you lunatic.  Also, you're forgetting the voters who have had tyrannical dem governors destroy their lives. 

[SVPete]

Yeah, those computer models did so well in 2016 and in 2020 with Covid-19. So , , and .

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Mail-in voting will allow Russia to inject untraceable ballots into the election.

[jukin]

What is the definition of insanity?

[landofconfusion80]

these lofty expectations will make the election night crash that much more spectacular

[Ptarmigan]

Sigh.

Case Study 2: The 1948 Presidential Election
https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html

By this time, all major polls were using what was belived to be a much more scientific method for choosing their samples called quota sampling. Quota sampling had been introduced by George Gallup as early as 1935 and had been successfully used by him to predict the winner of the 1936,1940 and 1944 elections. Quota sampling is nothing more than a systematic effort to force the sample to fit a certain national profile by using quotas: The sample should have so many women, so many men, so many blacks, so many whites, so many under 40, so many over 40 etc. The numbers in each category are taken to represent the same proportions in the sample as are in the electorate at large.

If we assume that every important characteristic of the population is taken into account when setting up the quotas, it is reasonable to expect that quota sampling will produce a good cross-section of the population and therefore lead to accurate predictions. For the 1948 election between Thomas Dewey and Harry Truman, Gallup conducted a poll with a sample size of about 3250. Each individual in the sample was inteviewed in person by a professional interviewer to minimize nonresponse bias, and each interviewer was given a very detailed set of quotas to meet. For example, an interviewer could have been given the following quotas: seven white males under 40 living in a rural area, five black males under 40 living in a rural area, six black females under 40 living in a rural area, etc. Other than meeting these quotas the ultimate choice of who was interviewed was left to each interviewer.

Based on the results of this poll, Gallup predicted a victory for Dewey, the Republican candidate. The predicted breakdown of the vote was 50% for Dewey, 44% for Truman, and 6% for third-party candidates Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace. The actual results of the election turned out to be almost exactly reversed: 50% for Truman, 45% for Dewey, and 5% for third-party candidates.

Dukakis Holds 18 Points Lead, With GOP Still To Be Heard From
https://theharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-DUKAKIS-HOLDS-18-POINT-LEAD-WITH-GOP-STILL-TO-BE-HEARD-FROM-1988-07.pdf

[thundley4]

Mail-in voting will allow Russia to inject untraceable ballots into the election.

Democrats are hoping that there are huge problems with mail-in voting. They know their candidate is even weaker than the one they had in 2016. Their hoping for a contested election created by their own hands. The death of RBG might mess things up for them.

[I_B_Perky]

I have heard this from polls since the mid seventies. 

The generic dem beats the generic GOP by 10000%

The gop guy/gal has no chance, ever.

If the polling history was correct, then we would never, ever have a GOP win an election.

If the polls were correct then Hillary would be running for reelection.

If the polls were correct then America would be a liberal utopia

If the polls were correct.... if only the polls were correct....   Except there is a problem and that problem is that there is a poll that is correct and it is the poll conducted on the first Tuesday of November.  It is called an election.  The results usually tell me the *polls* are nothing more than a circle jerk.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Your "model" is similar to the supermodel you are sleeping with.  Fictional.