with a 15 point margin, I just don't see how the senate isn't in play. I expect the turnout models aren't geared for what is about to happen. the individual senate polls can't be right if gaallup is right. it makes you wonder if rossi and fiorina aren't ahead, and kirk, paul, and angle aren't ahead by a lot more.
it will be interesting when the polls close in DE and CT. if o'donnell does better than her polls are indicating, or, heaven forbid, she jumps out of the bushes
and steals the election from coons, it will mean that the polls for the west coast races are similarly out of whack.
and also, a wave on the east coast depresses the liberal vote on the west cost . . . although I guess just about everyone in WA has already voted by mail.
Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday
Lead in generic ballot large enough to give Republicans solid majority control of U.S. House
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
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