This Crime Data Is Not Real

[Ptarmigan]

This Crime Data Is Not Real
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/crime-data-not-real
From
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/this-crime-data-is-not-real-5526382

Headlines in recent weeks blared that crime is down, all based on a new report from the FBI.

News media picked it up and did the predictable kabuki dance over the greatness of the Biden administration, as if the president has anything to do with it.

Mainly, the point is that all is well.

There's nothing about which to complain.

You're safe and prosperous, so just stop your kvetching.

The report stated the following:

“The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7 percent in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates: Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1 percent compared to the previous year. In 2022, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 5.4 percent decrease. Aggravated assault in 2022 decreased an estimated 1.1 percent in 2022. Robbery showed an estimated increase of 1.3 percent nationally.”

Before we examine this reported data, consider that there's no reason to believe that it's even close to the truth.

In all the chaos of the last several years, people have mostly stopped reporting theft and even assault. It’s so routine and everyone knows that the police will not and probably cannot do anything anyway. This truth is easily confirmed by asking any street-level store owner in any big city. Theft is rampant. Cameras are everywhere. But there's nothing they can do about it.

Crime report is unreliable. The FBI uses 2019 as the baseline. Crime was already rising.

To be sure, murders are different. Those data are less subject to reporting problems. But here's another problem: a basic statistical error in how it is presented. It’s a sophomoric point but nonetheless real. Whether something is up or down, getting better or getting worse, entirely depends on the baseline that you choose as your starting date. If you choose the absolute worst peak of a trend, everything else looks good by comparison.

That's precisely what the FBI has done.

It has chosen the worst possible year in order to make our present hellish reality seem great by comparison. Joshua Crawford of the Georgia Center for Opportunity explains:

“Part of the problem with most media analysis is that 2019 didn’t represent a historical baseline of homicide and violent crime rates in America—2014 did. Nationally, violent crime and murder were much more prevalent in 2019 than in 2014. So though U.S. rates have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, the country is well above normal violent-crime rates. Total violent crime in 2022 was 5 percent higher than in 2014, an increase that represents tens of thousands of additional victims in a single year. The national homicide rate in 2022 was 43 percent higher than in 2014. Since 2015, there have been roughly 30,000 more murders in the U.S. than there would have been if the homicide rate had stayed at the 2014 low.”

Which is to say, this is all terrible news. It's only not as terrible as the most terrible possible reality of 4 years ago. This isn't crime being down; this is crime persisting and even worsening in many respects in many places, especially in blue areas such as San Francisco.

[Eupher]

crime is down, all based on a new report from the FBI.

Rule No. 1 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

1. It's a lie. Don't believe it.

Rule No. 2 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

2. See Rule No. 1.

[ADsOutburst]

Rule No. 1 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

1. It's a lie. Don't believe it.

Rule No. 2 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

2. See Rule No. 1.

It's a lie, and they don't care that we know it's a lie.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Rule No. 1 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

1. It's a lie. Don't believe it.

Rule No. 2 when considering information or data from the U.S. government:

2. See Rule No. 1.

Rule #3: It's not a lie if you believe it. Also known as the George Costanza theorem.