Author Topic: LARRY KUDLOW: This is a recession warning sign  (Read 430 times)

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Offline Ptarmigan

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LARRY KUDLOW: This is a recession warning sign
« on: July 09, 2023, 08:54:56 PM »
LARRY KUDLOW: This is a recession warning sign

Following the release of the June jobs report, President Biden called it "Bidenomics in action." Well, I guess it was, because it was a very soggy and underwhelming report. 

Nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations, rising 209,000. Even that was the lowest since December 2020, but hang on a second – the prior two months were revised down by 110,000.  So, actually, we saw only 99,000 new jobs in June and that is a very poor number. Plus, when you look under the hood of this report, private payrolls increased 149,000 – itself a very soft number, but 98,000 private jobs were revised lower in May and April. So, actually, there are only 51,000 private sector jobs created in June, a very poor performance.

Mr. Biden, of course, skips over these factoids when he talks about "growing the economy by creating jobs." Also, Biden's much heralded manufacturing boom showed up as a meager 7,000 job gain in June, after falling 3,000 in May, for a grand total of 4,000 new manufacturing jobs.   

In fact, over the entire past year, manufacturing jobs have only increased 14,000. As noted earlier, manufacturing production has turned negative over the past three months. Plus, the ISM manufacturing survey has fallen for eight consecutive months. Plus, business investment is falling, and that's a surefire recession warning. In fact, the entire jobs report is a recession warning.

The household employment survey, from whence the unemployment rate is derived, did rebound 273,000 following last month’s 310,000 drop, but over the past three months, that survey has gained only 34,000.   

Manufacturing has not grown much and business investing is decreasing.
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