Author Topic: The White House is pointing out that the US isn't really in a recession  (Read 889 times)

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Offline Texacon

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https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216963969


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17 hrs ago
867-5309.
The White House is pointing out that the US isn't really in a recession

...Should the Thursday report show output shrinking again, debate around the economy's health will quickly intensify. The rule-of-thumb definition of a downturn has long been back-to-back quarters of negative GDP. The coming data release could very well show just that, but the White House is already explaining why defining a recession requires much more nuance.

For one, the National Bureau of Economic Research has much more stringent criteria for deciding when a recession starts, members of the White House Council of Economic Advisors wrote in a Thursday blog post. The organization — which serves as the semi-official authority for deciding when business cycles start and end — defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." It also considers factors such as employment, consumer spending, and industrial production.

That looser definition makes it less likely the US is actually in an economic slump, the team said. The variables the NBER tracks have shown "strong growth" since the start of the pandemic and continued to improve through the first half of 2022. The unemployment rate remains a historically low 3.6%, and monthly job creation in the second quarter handily surpassed the pre-pandemic trend...

https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-biden-recession-gdp-economic-report-2022-7


Expect some gloom and doom recession talk in the media. They will fail to see the big picture.



Anything to support the narrative. Don’t like what’s coming down the pike?  Change what it’s called or change how it’s measured then call anyone who disagrees a moron because you don’t understand ‘nuance’.

 :rotf:


Quote
PSPS
2. The traditional idea of a "recession" isn't applicable here. This is a unique situation.
For one thing, we're still in a pandemic (despite the media's advertising-driven charade of it being otherwise) and its effect on the workforce, supply chain, etc. Another thing is the Russian invasion and war causing widespread food and energy shortages. This is a combination without any history as a guide.

A third thing is the low unemployment rate. One key indicator of a recession is high unemployment. Recessions never have low unemployment.

My admittedly amateur opinion is that this is all a symptom of pandemic-driven speeding up the movement to a new kind of economy. It would have happened over then next twenty years anyway but was compressed into a year or two because of the pandemic. Office space vacancy is still high with no signs of improving (Amazon has started cancelling office projects in the works) and people have come to prefer, even insist on, working at home (the employers wanting to return to normal are relenting due to enormous pushback from their employees as well as potential new hires.)


Gotta love that liar. We’re not in a pandemic, but since it believes we are I have a question.  WHY do you think we’re in a pandemic?  Joe promised to “stop the virus” and he’s been in office for a year and a half. How long does it take?  How many variants has he let in?  And what the hell, now we’ve got Monkey Pox!!  We didn’t have Monkey Pox when Trump was President!

Fun, short thread.

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Offline franksolich

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This is supposed to be a week of bad economic news, the Biden administration taking some pretty bad hits.

It's going to be interesting, to watch how the primitives spin it all.
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Offline DUmpDiver

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Joe promised to “stop the virus” and he’s been in office for a year and a half. How long does it take?  How many variants has he let in?

It's Trump's fault because the Trump vacs that Joe has been forcing on people do not prevent transmission.

/DU

Offline USA4ME

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Quote from:
PSPS

A third thing is the low unemployment rate. One key indicator of a recession is high unemployment. Recessions never have low unemployment.

That's not even close to being true.

.
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Offline ADsOutburst

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Merriam-Webster to change their definition in 3, 2, 1...

Offline CollectivismMustDie

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Save this thread, because pretty soon, they'll be posting pieces from far left nutter sources which opine that 'Yes, we're in a recession, and it's a good thing'.

And they'll be agreeing, like the morons they are.
"Be not intimidated... nor suffer yourselves to be wheedled out of your liberties by any pretense of politeness, delicacy, or decency. These, as they are often used, are but three different names for hypocrisy, chicanery and cowardice." - John Adams

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Offline freedumb2003b

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Merriam-Webster to change their definition in 3, 2, 1...

They changed the definitions of "pedophile" and "senile." Why not "recession?"
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Offline Drafe Hoblin

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'Recessions' are all about inferior minds in Government. 

So this week will be a tentacles-furiously-thrashing embarrassment for DU.   
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Online 67 Rover

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They changed the definitions of "pedophile" and "senile." Why not "recession?"

Add in the changed definition of vaccine and woman as well.

People aren't going to buy it when foreclosures shoot up, wages stagnate, homes and cars become unaffordable due to double digit interest rates, and groceries become unaffordable that is when you can actually find what you are looking for on the bare shelves. :mad:
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Offline jukin

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Orwell's Newspeak is on full display with the democrat-communist party in charge.

Look the BS economics board already changed the definition of recession under Preezy Shit Midas to be that the two quarters of negative GDP had to be increasingly negative. IOW 1Q 2022 is -1.6% and 2Q 2022 is -1.5% NO RECESSION but if 2Q 2022 is -1.7% then recession... until they change definition again. So you know the first print of 2Q 2022 is going to be less than -1.6%. Second print will be higher (-1.8%), and the third print even higher. (-2.3%).

 
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Offline Vagabond

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I think the primary reason for low unemployment up until now is not being considered.  The biggest economic event of 2020 was that some point in that year, more baby boomers were retired than working.  The Boomers are the largest generation in history.  The workers replacing them are from the smallest generation in history.  That alone is enough to cause labor shortages in an average market. 

I think that the coming data this week is going to be a disaster.  Democrats are going to be the party that pays the price for it politically.  All of the out of control money printing is going to come back to bite us all in a minute.
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Offline Texacon

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Maybe they can rebrand their way out of it. Let’s help them.

Instead of recession how about … Financial Opportunity Season … for those who can afford it.

Or

Pluscession. It’s just like a recession but it sounds more friendly.

Whatchya got. Let’s help them.

KC
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Online SVPete

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I'm paying ~50% more for gasoline, and prices at stores are also up. I find those realities more interesting than whether the economy is in a recession or in a ham sandwich.
Anti-Covid-Vaxxer pig crap claim/prediction, Doctor: Heart Failure from mRNA Jabs "Will Kill Most People" | Principia Scientific Intl. ; Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche Warns COVID-19 Jab Injuries and Deaths Will Soon "Collapse Our Health System" (VIDEO) ; Fully Vaxxed May 2021; Since that time I've done 8 5Ks, 1 8K, 8 10Ks, and 4 half marathons

Offline Rebel

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These people are damn delusional. The economy SUCKS BALLS. Wait until the fall harvest and don't say I didn't warn you. I'm on the supply side of the industry. WE.ARE.****ED. Basic damn 13-13-13 with NO minors was $338 per ton a year or so ago. $862 now. Glyphosate, pretty much the cheapest non-selective herbicide out there, was $360 per 30gl. It's now over $1000. Produce farmers use a lot but hay farmers (think cattle) use a TON of it before planting because they can do a total kill on all weeds before planting and there is no residual. You've already talked about fuel prices. This is the worst economy in my lifetime.
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Offline Texacon

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These people are damn delusional. The economy SUCKS BALLS. Wait until the fall harvest and don't say I didn't warn you. I'm on the supply side of the industry. WE.ARE.****ED. Basic damn 13-13-13 with NO minors was $338 per ton a year or so ago. $862 now. Glyphosate, pretty much the cheapest non-selective herbicide out there, was $360 per 30gl. It's now over $1000. Produce farmers use a lot but hay farmers (think cattle) use a TON of it before planting because they can do a total kill on all weeds before planting and there is no residual. You've already talked about fuel prices. This is the worst economy in my lifetime.
-


What is this wizardry you’re talking?!

I heard the guy up there in New York, state there was no wizardry in farming. You dig a hole, put a seed in it, water it, harvest it.

Where they hell are you getting YOUR information?!

/DU mode.

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Offline RuralNc

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These people are damn delusional. The economy SUCKS BALLS. Wait until the fall harvest and don't say I didn't warn you. I'm on the supply side of the industry. WE.ARE.****ED. Basic damn 13-13-13 with NO minors was $338 per ton a year or so ago. $862 now. Glyphosate, pretty much the cheapest non-selective herbicide out there, was $360 per 30gl. It's now over $1000. Produce farmers use a lot but hay farmers (think cattle) use a TON of it before planting because they can do a total kill on all weeds before planting and there is no residual. You've already talked about fuel prices. This is the worst economy in my lifetime.
-

I can kinda sorta relate. At least as a business person.

Im a Baker. I run a small Bakery Business. The prices at wholesale have been creeping up for months and months. Flour. Chocolate. Butter. Oh dear lord, butter. Its about 3 times the price it was a year or so ago. Eggs. Milk. Cheese. Its absolutely ridiculous.

Wholesale can fluctuate a good bit. Its a while before the prices hit the regular grocery store. Then people throw a fit, wondering what happened.

Offline landofconfusion80

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These people are damn delusional. The economy SUCKS BALLS. Wait until the fall harvest and don't say I didn't warn you. I'm on the supply side of the industry. WE.ARE.****ED. Basic damn 13-13-13 with NO minors was $338 per ton a year or so ago. $862 now. Glyphosate, pretty much the cheapest non-selective herbicide out there, was $360 per 30gl. It's now over $1000. Produce farmers use a lot but hay farmers (think cattle) use a TON of it before planting because they can do a total kill on all weeds before planting and there is no residual. You've already talked about fuel prices. This is the worst economy in my lifetime.
-
My oldest just started hay this year. He's into his equipment for about 2k. I hope he can break even this fall on square bails
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20. absolute bullshit. the cave is unspeakably vile.

I don't know how any of you can live with yourselves.

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Online SVPete

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Ya know all that stuff we manufacture and import from Asia? It gets here, largely, by ship. I doubt that ship's fuel has held steady in cost, and it takes a while for ships to cross the Pacific. So several weeks of additional inflation is somewhere on the ocean, not yet arrived.
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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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I'll repeat this analogy tomorrow when the ###'s come out, but our economy is comparable to a football game.  Say your favorite QB has thrown for 400 yards, your star running back rushed for 200, and your team still lost the game. They conveniently ignore the 5 interceptions thrown, 4 lost fumbles (including 1 for a touchdown), and missed three field goals.
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Offline BannedFromDU

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I'll repeat this analogy tomorrow when the ###'s come out, but our economy is comparable to a football game.  Say your favorite QB has thrown for 400 yards, your star running back rushed for 200, and your team still lost the game. They conveniently ignore the 5 interceptions thrown, 4 lost fumbles (including 1 for a touchdown), and missed three field goals.


     This is a convenient metaphor, which I'll extend: DUmmies are Raider fans. They could not care less about the game, and have only a passing interest in the outcome. Even though their side gets in its own way and perennially sucks, they still hoot and howl and dress and carry on as though their side is undefeated. 
I am sorry. There is no other, better way it could have gone.

Offline CollectivismMustDie

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     This is a convenient metaphor, which I'll extend: DUmmies are Raider fans. They could not care less about the game, and have only a passing interest in the outcome. Even though their side gets in its own way and perennially sucks, they still hoot and howl and dress and carry on as though their side is undefeated.

Such an apt comparison.

DUmmies=Raiders fans:

They throw snowballs with D batteries and/or rocks in them during snow games, and they do it with a smile.
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Online 67 Rover

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Quote
The White House is pointing out that the US isn't really in a recession

This is true according to the new Merriam-Webster definition.  ::)

Thanks Brandon bunch.
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Offline BannedFromDU

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This is true according to the new Merriam-Webster definition.  ::)

Thanks Brandon bunch.


     "Claiming the US is in a recession is transphobic." - I promise you all that is coming.
I am sorry. There is no other, better way it could have gone.

Offline Old n Grumpy

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It's no a recession it's simple mafamaticks, people can't afford to buy what they need. :thatsright:
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