The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: dutch508 on November 02, 2020, 08:35:26 AM
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Johnny2X2X (8,826 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214413318
538's Forecast goes to 90-9
Best it's been. I think it will finish within a point of here. 91-9 perhaps or at best 91-8.
I'll be honest, I have cited Silver from a few weeks ago when he said that if the election was that day it would probably be 95-5 for Biden. The fact that we're not going to get to that means Trump did close the gap in some swing states slightly.
So Trump has a 1 in 11 chance of winning according to this model.
:rotf:
NewJeffCT (56,331 posts)
1. They had Hillary in the upper 60s if I recall?
going into election day.
Johnny2X2X (8,826 posts)
2. Yup
They had a really good model in 2016, had Hillary at 70%, Trump had a 1 in 3 chance to win in 2016 and everything lined up right for him to win. He has a 1 in 11 chance this time around.
538's model is pretty conservative. And the inputs to it are the polls, many of which changed their methods to account for 2016, so it should be stronger this time.
getagrip_already (5,847 posts)
3. I thought he said once he wouldn't let it go beyond 1 in 10?
Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought early on he said he didn't want to make a result in either direction seem like too sure a thing so he was going to stop the prediction if it passed that point. Maybe since it's the last day and only one point it's ok?
Anyway, the snake chart now shows GA as light blue. It's no longer light yellow.
Star Member TheBlackAdder (18,233 posts)
6. It would be nice if 538 did an Election Night forecast, as to who will lead by 11:59PM.
:yawn:
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Alas the poor primitives.
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It's going to be interesting to see just how much of an effect all the riots have had on people simply not wanting to tell pollsters who they will be voting for.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting, to say the least.
KC
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Lucy has her football teed up, just waiting on Charlie Brown.
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Lucy has her football teed up, just waiting on Charlie Brown.
:-)
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The public shaming and scolding for Trump support in 2016 is nothing compared to what it is now, and the blatant attempts to suppress expression by anyone but Dems on social media have been off the charts in comparison to then. Polls are even less respected, and Red voters even less likely to respond to them, than was the case in 2016. Even assuming their 'Improvements' were actually correct, there are other factors in play that didn't figure in 2016 so I wouldn't put any stock in 538 or any other poll results.
There's absolutely no enthusiasm for Biden anywhere, except possibly China. The Dems are counting on the Trump-haters and identity politics, but there are indications that Black and Latino voters aren't keen on Biden at all and a larger-than-usual percentage of both will defect to Trump. and the rest won't turn out the way they did in the past for the Dems. To the extent assumptions about those voting blocks are built into the projections, they are going to be inaccurate.
I truly hope pure negativity and hate don't carry the day, and people turn out for positive good, with the fraudsters swamped by real votes for Trump.
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And then a poll jumped out of the bushes.
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I hear an awful lot of backpedaling from the MSM about how the polls are tightening. It's freaking the DUmmies out, but they're trying to remain brave. They're not allowing many of those posts to stand.
KC
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I hear an awful lot of backpedaling from the MSM about how the polls are tightening. It's freaking the DUmmies out, but they're trying to remain brave. They're not allowing many of those posts to stand.
KC
It's not unusual for the polls to tighten close to election day. What has been unusual is the degree this has gone from a projected Biden "Blowout" to a "Horse Race". Notably, the polls that show Biden in the lead are conveniently in the margin of error. If Trump pulls this out, they can again claim vindication for that reason.
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It's not unusual for the polls to tighten close to election day. What has been unusual is the degree this has gone from a projected Biden "Blowout" to a "Horse Race". Notably, the polls that show Biden in the lead are conveniently in the margin of error. If Trump pulls this out, they can again claim vindication for that reason.
Which is why the DUmmies are burying anything that actually shows Trump in the lead. I've heard of multiple polls showing Trump ahead and any DUmmie who dares post it is buried. They want to be able to proclaim Trump was never ahead in any actual/credible poll therefore, it was STOLEN!!!
Same song, different dance.
KC
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So what time will the dump shut down?
Will it be Rooshin hackers or the chinese or right wingers.?
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I still say that the Democrats are going to go all out to give Biden a huge popular vote win using every method of cheating they can in the Blue states.
They will use that to continue to undermine President Trump over the next for years. They will also use that to try and convince the gullible people that the electoral college is outdated for our "Democracy".
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Have there ever been presidential polls predicting the republican in the lead? What did 1984 look like?