Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA: Please Share

[Ptarmigan]

Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA: Please Share. Update With Benford’s Law Criticism
https://wmbriggs.com/post/33377/

A brief note. I’ve been asked to examine the Pennsylvania votes. That work is ongoing. Update See below for a serious critique of Benford’s law.

I’m showing here (with permission) the one analysis I found most curious.

This is official county-level timed voting data that started at 2020-11-04 11:00:00, a day after the election, to 2020-11-07 11:29:00 which is Saturday night. That is, these are all late vote counts. They start, county by county, where the vote left off on election night.

This is a picture of the running totals by the time the votes were added, summed across all counties, during those time periods. They do not start at 0, but at the totals given after election night

Something is not adding up.

Update Benford’s law is only useful in uncovering multiple and on-going instances of cheating. As in somebody consistently cooking financial books. As I showed above, assuming the curiosities are cheats, it only took two instances to tip the balance. Benford’s law will never pick this up: never.

I’m skeptical of what I’m seeing in other analyses, because if somebody turns something up with Benford, it implies that many, many vote totals were tampered with, which increases the possibilities of getting caught. And you don’t need to tamper with many. Only a few.

More proof to not declare Presidential winner right now.

[Ptarmigan]

New Judicial Watch Study Finds 353 U.S. Counties in 29 States with Voter Registration Rates Exceeding 100%
https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/new-jw-study-voter-registration/

(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch announced today that a September 2020 study revealed that 353 U.S. counties had 1.8 million more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens. In other words, the registration rates of those counties exceeded 100% of eligible voters. The study found eight states showing state-wide registration rates exceeding 100%: Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The September 2020 study collected the most recent registration data posted online by the states themselves. This data was then compared to the Census Bureau’s most recent five-year population estimates, gathered by the American Community Survey (ACS) from 2014 through 2018. ACS surveys are sent to 3.5 million addresses each month, and its five-year estimates are considered to be the most reliable estimates outside of the decennial census.

Judicial Watch’s latest study is necessarily limited to 37 states that post regular updates to their registration data. Certain state voter registration lists may also be even larger than reported, because they may have excluded “inactive voters” from their data. Inactive voters, who may have moved elsewhere, are still registered voters and may show up and vote on election day and/or request mail-in ballots.

Voter registration rates exceeds 100% in Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont. One of them is Michigan.

Earlier this month, Judicial Watch sued Colorado over its failure to comply with the National Voter Registration Act. In Judicial Watch’s new study, 42 Colorado counties—or two thirds of the state’s counties—had registration rates exceeding 100%. Particular data from the state confirms this general picture. As the complaint explains, a month-by-month comparison of the ACS’s five-year survey period with Colorado’s own registration numbers for the exact same months shows that large proportions of Colorado’s counties have registration rates exceeding 100%. Earlier this year, Judicial Watch sued Pennsylvaniaand North Carolina for failing to make reasonable efforts to remove ineligible voters from their rolls as required by federal law. The lawsuits allege that the two states have nearly 2 million inactive names on their voter registration rolls. Judicial Watch also sued Illinois for refusing to disclose voter roll data in violation of Federal law.

“The new study shows 1.8 million excess, or ‘ghost’ voters in 353 counties across 29 states,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “The data highlights the recklessness of mailing blindly ballots and ballot applications to voter registration lists. Dirty voting rolls can mean dirty elections.”

Judicial Watch’s study updates the results of a similar study from last year. In August 2019, Judicial Watch analyzed registration data that states reported to the federal Election Assistance Commission (EAC) in response to a survey conducted every two years on how states maintain their voter rolls. That registration data was compared to the then-most-recent ACS five-year survey from 2013 through 2017. The study showed that 378 U.S. counties had registration rates exceeding 100%.

378 counties have over 100% voter registration. That is a red flag right there.

[Ptarmigan]

Nearly All Election Statistical Irregularities Boosted Biden
https://thenationalpulse.com/politics/pennsylvania-vote-anomalies/

Two reports, providing over 10 pages of statistical analysis of raw Pennsylvania voter data, appear to signal election irregularities – virtually all boosting Biden’s vote count in the critical state.
In Philadelphia, for example, the likelihood of the city’s voting outcome is as likely as someone flipping a coin 100 times and landing on heads every time.

A preliminary statistical analysis of Philadelphia voting data is showing that the vote totals are “as if someone flipped a coin 100 times and got heads every time.”

— Raheem Kassam (@RaheemKassam) November 6, 2020

At the time of publishing, Pennsylvania stands at 6,749,175 votes cast – unclear how many were cast legally vs. illegally – and 98% reporting. The state and its 20 electoral college votes remain critical to President Trump’s chances to rightfully clinch the presidency.

It also has statistical outcomes pointing to irregularities.