The great oil bubble has burst

[Wretched Excess]

the debacle in afghanistan never materialized.  iraq ia a won done deal.  and now this.  The BarackStar! is running out of
things to whine about use to run against john mccain.

The great oil bubble has burst

Bad news from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - an installation that may not normally draw much of your attention, but which is a throbbing artery of global energy supply, carrying vital oil supplies from Central Asia towards a tanker terminal on the Turkish coast. On some remote, sun-baked plain of Anatolia, an explosion sparked a fire earlier this week, temporarily cutting the flow through the pipeline.

But guess what? Here's the good news: the oil price did not zoom upwards in response, not a blip, barely a flicker. Actually the price of a barrel of crude has been falling: from a peak of $145 in early July, it came down to $117 and was trading yesterday at $120. That's almost a 20 per cent drop in little more than three weeks.

If the trend continues into September at anything like the same rate of descent, most of the inflationary spike of the past 12 months will miraculously have been sliced away. This is a dramatic reversal, and it is worth trying to work out why it is happening and what it means.

Just possibly, it means that what investors refer to in shorthand as the great "oil up" story has finally revealed itself not as the fundamental reflection of scarce supply that its adherents liked to claim, but as a simple, speculative bubble that was always going to burst.

The market's conviction that oil prices were set on an unstoppable upswing was underpinned by a set of mantras to be chanted daily before breakfast by anyone hoping to make money by following the crowd: insatiable demand from China; indolent Opec sheikhs unwilling to open the supply taps; that nasty Vladimir Putin playing political hardball with Russia's oil and gas resources; those mad Iranian mullahs hell-bent on nuclear conflict; and beyond all these, the looming threat of "peak oil", the inevitable moment when Mother Earth's carbon-fuel gauge starts pointing towards empty.

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[Lauri]

i'm just going to keep inserting this infor in threads as I can ... there is an oil boom going on in North Dakota right now, as I type.

there is an oil boom going on in saskatchewan, as I type.

Americans need to finally understand there is *no shortage* at all..

[Zeus]

i'm just going to keep inserting this infor in threads as I can ... there is an oil boom going on in North Dakota right now, as I type.

there is an oil boom going on in saskatchewan, as I type.

Americans need to finally understand there is *no shortage* at all..

There is a shortage in that the current supplies are barely keeping upwith demand. There more oil out there it's just off limits.

On Edit: I will also point out that since 1983 US refineries have been cut by about half whiles at the same time production has doubled.

[Thor]

I recall reading someplace that some of the oil fields are replenishing themselves. This was a few months ago, perhaps last Dec/Jan.

There Are More Oil Seeps Than All The Tankers On Earth

Deep underwater, and deeper underground, scientists see surprising hints that gas and oil deposits can be replenished, filling up again, sometimes rapidly. Although it sounds too good to be true, increasing evidence from the Gulf of Mexico suggests that some old oil fields are being refilled by petroleum surging up from deep below, scientists report. That may mean that current estimates of oil and gas abundance are far too low.

Recent measurements in a major oil field show "that the fluids were changing over time; that very light oil and gas were being injected from below, even as the producing [oil pumping] was going on," said chemical oceanographer Mahlon "Chuck" Kennicutt. "They are refilling as we speak. But whether this is a worldwide phenomenon, we don't know."

Also not known, Kennicutt said, is whether the injection of new oil from deeper strata is of any economic significance, whether there will be enough to be exploitable. The discovery was unexpected, and it is still "somewhat controversial" within the oil industry.

Kennicutt, a faculty member at Texas A&M University, said it is now clear that gas and oil are coming into the known reservoirs very rapidly in terms of geologic time. The inflow of new gas, and some oil, has been detectable in as little as three to 10 years. In the past, it was not suspected that oil fields can refill because it was assumed the oil formed in place, or nearby, rather than far below.

According to marine geologist Harry Roberts, at Louisiana State University, "petroleum geologists don't accept it as a general phenomenon because it doesn't happen in most reservoirs. But in this case, it does seem to be happening. You have a very leaky fault system that does allow it to migrate in. It's directly connected to an oil and gas generating system at great depth."

What the scientists suspect is that very old petroleum -- formed tens of millions of years ago -- has continued migrating up into reservoirs that oil companies have been exploiting for years. But no one had expected that depleted oil fields might refill themselves.

Now, if it is found that gas and oil are coming up in significant amounts, and if the same is occurring in oil fields around the globe, then a lot more fuel than anyone expected could become available eventually. It hints that the world may not, in fact, be running out of petroleum.

"No one has been more astonished by the potential implications of our work than myself," said analytic chemist Jean Whelan, at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in Massachusetts. "There already appears to be a large body of evidence consistent with ... oil and gas generation and migration on very short time scales in many areas globally," she wrote in the journal Sea Technology.

"Almost equally surprising," she added, is that "there seem to be no compelling arguments refuting the existence of these rapid, dynamic migration processes."

The first sketchy evidence of this emerged in 1984, when Kennicutt and colleagues from Texas A&M University were in the Gulf of Mexico trying to understand a phenomenon called "seeps," areas on the seafloor where sometimes large amounts of oil and gas escape through natural fissures.

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[NHSparky]

And yet there's a link in that story that talks about oil going to $200 a bbl soon.  Yeah, some of this is speculation on the traders, but a lot of it also falls square on the lap of media hysteria as well.

[Hawkgirl]

Pfew! I am relieved to see it going down.  Does this mean we shouldn't drill at home? NO!! I still believe drilling at home gives us leverage should another spike occur (and it will).

[NHSparky]

Actually, it means we should drill at home that much MORE to either prevent or minimize the effects of the next "spike", when it comes.

[Wretched Excess]

Oil Prices Tumble Again; Stock Markets Surge

The immediate impetus for the rally appeared to be a big drop in commodity prices including a 4 percent fall in crude oil, which closed below $116 a barrel for the first time since early May. Oil fell $4.82 a barrel to $115.20 in New York trading.

[Willow]

And yet there's a link in that story that talks about oil going to $200 a bbl soon.  Yeah, some of this is speculation on the traders, but a lot of it also falls square on the lap of media hysteria as well.

my prediction is that it will shoot up as soon as this election is over. It will go to ten dollars if Obamalama is elected!

[Lauri]

my in laws in Saskatchewan own some land where four pump jacks were just installed. they had been capped for a while (few decades? i dunno) but as of the past few years, the oil is there and the MSM just doesnt seem interested.

i just got this local press release from dad in law:

The Bakken Oil Formation:
Welcome to the Next Oil Boom

August 6th, 2008
The U.S. Geological Survey just published its official results of a groundbreaking study.

Its report confirmed a massive oil reserve in an area the locals have nicknamed the "Bakken," which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and southeastern Saskatchewan.
The new USGS study estimates a whopping 3.65 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken... but here's what they didn't mention:

The reported 3.65 billion barrels of oil mean estimate is for 'undiscovered' oil only, and doesn't include known oil, such as reserves.

In fact, the study reports a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered... compared to the agency's estimate back in 1995.

Discovered over 50 years ago, the Bakken deposit--once impossible to extract--is now being hailed as the single largest oil find in US history.

That's because, today, thanks to breakthrough drilling techniques like horizontal drilling, the Bakken's oil shales can be extracted relatively cheaply.

When that happens, this light, sweet oil will cost Americans just $16 per barrel!

The next oil boom is already upon us.

And, considering that oil prices are likely to remain above $100 a barrel, the time for shock is over. Investors are now faced with an unprecedented opportunity to play the U.S. and Canada's new hottest oil stocks... several of which are poised to make 300% gains during 2008.

To get the full details on the Bakken and the leading stocks behind it--before the story goes mainstream--simply sign up for the free Energy and Capital e-Letter, a daily advisory on the fast-moving profits in the energy stock sector, written and edited by energy and natural resources investing experts Chris Nelder and Keith Kohl.

[Lord Undies]

The lesson from this "bubble" that should be shouted far and wide is that the USA could control the world oil market if we will only get the socialists/democrats out of our way.

The world is one big ball of grease.  Industrialized mankind will never be able to come up with a workable substitute.  Oil should be considered right up there with water as the sustainer of life. 

And, by the way DUmbasses, there is not a better reason to go to war than OIL.  Yes, it is worth killing and dying.  Oil is what feeds the world.  Every aspect of every human life and a great portion of the animal kingdom depends on OIL.

[Lauri]

The lesson from this "bubble" that should be shouted far and wide is that the USA could control the world oil market if we will only get the socialists/democrats out of our way.

The world is one big ball of grease.  Industrialized mankind will never be able to come up with a workable substitute.  Oil should be considered right up there with water as the sustainer of life. 

And, by the way DUmbasses, there is not a better reason to go to war than OIL.  Yes, it is worth killing and dying.  Oil is what feeds the world.  Every aspect of every human life and a great portion of the animal kingdom depends on OIL.

listening to Glenn Beck, he started listing all the petroleum products this world uses - just think of the issue of plastics. how would this world get along without plastics??

its in everything from orthodontics, to garbage cans to automobiles and planes .. i shudder to think how Obama would actually get rid of all that stuff in 10 years.

[Airwolf]

There is a very good chance that when fall comes the next spike in prices will be because of the winter blends and the demand for heating oil.

[Lacarnut]

There is a very good chance that when fall comes the next spike in prices will be because of the winter blends and the demand for heating oil.

Predictions are that heating oil will double in price over last year. Look for a government bail out especially if we have a severe winter. `

[Uhhuh35]

I just filled up my truck in Maryland for 3.68 a gallon.

[Lord Undies]

I just filled up my truck in Maryland for 3.68 a gallon.

It's $3.52 up on the highway.  The guy who owns the station told me he stopped taking credit cards.  "I've got it priced too low".  Whatever, Homer.

[Airwolf]

I just filled up my truck in Maryland for 3.68 a gallon.

It's $3.52 up on the highway.  The guy who owns the station told me he stopped taking credit cards.  "I've got it priced too low".  Whatever, Homer.

He must not like doing business.

[Lord Undies]

I just filled up my truck in Maryland for 3.68 a gallon.

It's $3.52 up on the highway.  The guy who owns the station told me he stopped taking credit cards.  "I've got it priced too low".  Whatever, Homer.

He must not like doing business.

When I was there today cars were waiting like it was 1978.  Most folks 'round here pay cash or debit anyway.

[NHSparky]

I've seen cash price for heating oil within the last two days at $4.19 here in NH.  Good for those who waited or are jumping into contracts now, not so good for those of us idiots (or were we?) who jumped into contracts earlier--I paid $4.29/gal for 500 gallons a couple of months ago when the cash price was upwards of $4.75.