Why the Incompetent Are so Sure: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

[thundley4]

snot   (1000+ posts)           Thu May-13-10 10:30 AM
Original message
Why the Incompetent Are so Sure: The Dunning-Kruger Effect
   
"Have you ever noticed how incompetent people are often incredibly confident? Meanwhile, highly-skilled folks underestimate their ability to perform. That's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect named for Justin Kruger and David Dunning of Cornell University who published their study of the cognitive bias in a 1999 scientific paper. ABC Radio National's The Science Show recently explored the Dunning-Kruger Effect. According to the scientists, 'Overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.'"

More at http://www.boingboing.net/2010/05/12/confident-dumb-peo... .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8327875

I'm just going to bring the whole short thread over.

Warpy   (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. The unfortunate thing is that so many people see that boundless
   
Edited on Thu May-13-10 10:37 AM by Warpy
optimism and utter self confidence as evidence of leadership qualities and follow them blindly, not realizing they're both borne of utter stupidity. We find those people to be energizing to be around unless we've got enough upstairs to recognize there's nothing behind it.
 
ShortnFiery   (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
2. Nice to know the proper term for this phenomena.
   
The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

I enjoyed the opportunity to sit on a jury a few years back. Another woman in our group claimed that she had just completed a Neuro-linguistic Programming Class and, as a consequence, she could easily discern when a witness was lying based on their "non-verbals." I didn't bother to comment but laughed to myself. I had just orally defended my thesis in the area of physiological psychology (hemispheric specialization). Yes, the other jury member's confidence in this controversial area of psychological study is a prime example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Since that interesting experience, I often quip, "Nobody knows more about the field of Psychology than someone who has taken one community college course. Just ask them? They know EVERYTHING."   
 
LibDemAlways   (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
3. My husband is one of those highly skilled people who
   
underestimates his abilities. He's looking for a job and it's been a killer. His first instinct is to tell an interviewer, "I've never done that" or "I don't have much experience with that." No wonder he never gets a second interview. Meantime the incompetent doofus is no doubt confidently touting abilities he doesn't have, and getting a foot in the door.
 
Confusious (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
4. First post at the site
   

Wasn't it Confucius who said something like. "Real knowledge is to recognize the extent of one's ignorance"?


Why, yes I did!

But no, I didn't, and I have seen more of these people then I care to admit.
 
FBI_Un_Sub (74 posts)           Thu May-13-10 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
5. Rampant in "Management" and "Financial Services" Type -- N/T
 
rudy23   (1000+ posts)           Thu May-13-10 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
6. Another problem--humans are wired to follow confidence. We're wired to follow idiots off a cliff
   
We're also wired to mock the intelligent as we do it.
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glitch (1000+ posts)           Thu May-13-10 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Positive feedback loop to extinction. nt
 
femrap   (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
7. This should be K & R a zillion times....
   
What a relief! I wish I had read about this back in 1999/2000. I could have saved myself such enormous amounts of grief.

I feel as if a thousand pounds of odious burden has lifted from my shoulders.

Thank you for posting this.

I would like to add that 8 years of W really encouraged those suffering from this Effect. Also Talk Radio where opinion is now fact.

I have a name for it!!!! You have no idea how happy I am!!!

Bless you a thousand times!

MajorChode   (1000+ posts)             Thu May-13-10 11:49 AM
Response to Original message
8. They should include a picture of Palin for effect
   

No, this is more appropriate.


They truly can't see that Lord Zero is incompetent in everything he does, but he is confident in his own abilities.

[njpines]

that should be a self portrait thread

[Wineslob]

'Overestimation occurs, in part, because DUmmies who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do DUmmies reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.'"

FIXED


Explains most of the DUmp, Liberalism and Dear Leader.

[Carl]

The DUmp effect on cognizant reality...

Find any and all possible excuses for being a failure and a loser.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I hadn't known there was an actual name for this, though I have been aware of the phenomenon for many years.  I just always called it 'The illusion of competence.' 

I first encountered it and realized what it was as a teen-aged cadet in the Civil Air Patrol, watching an adult leader screw something up in an absolutely royal fashion (Got somebody killed, actually) while appearing to actually know what he was doing.

[Mike220]

In the next few years, it'll be renamed the Obama Effect.

[thundley4]

In the next few years, it'll be renamed the Obama Effect.

That will be a modification of The Peter Principle, I bet.