Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-jobsThere’s something wrong with previous U.S. jobs reports.
The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.
Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.
This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.
The job growth is weak. It is overstated.
The problem of overstated jobs numbers is not a new one.
In August 2023, the BLS issued a preliminary revision for the 12 months through March 2023 showing U.S. job growth for that period was overstated by a net 306,000 jobs. That’s 25,500 fewer jobs on average per month in that period.
Private sector job creation also was adjusted lower by 358,000 in that period, while government payrolls were revised by an increase of 52,000.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank in December 2022 also raised eyebrows when its algorithms predicted the BLS had overreported jobs growth by 1.1 million in the second quarter of that year.
The job reports is quietly corrected to show it is worse. But wait, there is more.
Today, U.S. labor force participation is at a historically low 62.5%.
As Edward Lawrence reports, the December jobs report shows 683,000 workers dropped out of the labor force. A record high 8.69 million people now hold multiple jobs to make ends meet. The economy lost 1.5 million full-time workers since June of last year, while adding 796,000 part-time workers.
That means more workers are holding down multiple jobs to pay for a higher cost of living due to a cumulative 17.4% inflation rate under this White House.
That’s not a good sign.
Labor participation is at historic low. Nearly 8.7 million have more than one job to keep up with inflation. The economy added 796,000 part-time workers and lost 1.5 million full-time workers in June 2023.
