Mystery Dem Death Watch

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Reliable GOP Source: Hey, you can’t print this, but we just had a poll come back saying that [House Democrat who everybody figured was pretty safe] is down 20.

Me: Well, that’s swell. But why can’t I use this?

Reliable GOP Source: We don’t think the Democrats know this guy is this much trouble, so we don’t want to tip them off.

Me: Well, thank you for sharing really cool information that I cannot share with readers.

Reliable GOP Source: I thought it might be helpful with you determining which challengers to watch. While it would be great to have you break this news, I think it’s more useful to us to keep the Democrats in the dark.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249916/two-shocker-polls-only-one-revealed

[GOP Congress]

It's been updated:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249916/two-shocker-polls-only-one-revealed

UPDATE: The poll is revealed, so my source says to put it out there. Scott DesJarlais has a five-point lead over Lincoln Davis (D., Tenn.), but 21 points among the highest-interest voters.

    The Bottom Line

    Congressman Lincoln Davis’ negative attacks appear to be backfiring.  Over the last two weeks, Davis’ image has taken a hit and his ballot support continues to dwindle, falling to 40% now.  More importantly, Scott DesJarlais now leads on the ballot and has the clear momentum with just 18 days to go.  

    Key Findings

    Scott DesJarlais has taken the lead over Congressman Lincoln Davis.  After pulling even two weeks ago, DesJarlais has surged ahead to take a five-point lead (now:  45% DesJarlais – 40% Davis / Sept 27-28:  42% – 42%).  For the third consecutive survey, Davis’ ballot support has dropped (from 45% in August to 42% in September to 40% now).  

    1.    At the same time, voters are starting to solidify around DesJarlais.  His definite vote support has steadily increased from 26% in August to 29% in September to 37% now.  (Davis’ definite support is stuck at 27%).  

    2.    Moreover, DesJarlais has a commanding 21-point lead over Davis (55% – 34%) among voters who rate their interest level as “high” (8-10 on a one-to-ten scale).

Davis is a four-term incumbent who won 59 percent in 2008 and 66 percent in 2006.

[formerlurker]

I don't care what initial you have after your name, if you are an incumbent you better not be sitting on your laurels.    America is just about done with you.   

[Eupher]

I don't care what initial you have after your name, if you are an incumbent you better not be sitting on your laurels.    America is just about done with you.   

Bingo. In my case, Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO, 9th district) has done well, but that doesn't mean his ass doesn't get tossed if he starts getting stupid on us.

Senator Claire McCaskill's ass is DEFINITELY toast in 2012. She continues to drink the Kool-Aid.