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Over the weekend I wrote a piece on how some liberal elites, not least at The New York Times, remain in denial over the scale of the disaster the Left is facing at the polls in November. Well, I hope they’re taking a close look today at the latest Gallup poll, which is enough to make any White House adviser weep.Gallup’s new survey of more than 3,000 adults, including over 2,700 registered voters (1,800 of whom are highly likely to vote), shows Republicans with “a double-digit advantage†under two separate scenarios – lower and higher turnout. Under the higher turnout scenario, the GOP lead is 13 percentage points, while under the lower turnout scenario it is even higher, at 18 points: Gallup has modeled a lower turnout estimate (40%, typical for recent midterm elections) and a higher turnout estimate. In both cases, the Republican share of the vote is above 50% and the Democratic share is 40% or less, underscoring the strong position in which the GOP would find itself were the election held today. Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010. It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well. …. Based on statistical modeling of the historical relationship between the national vote and seats, any situation in which the Democrats have less than about 47% of the actual two-party national vote for Congress (i.e., 53% voting for the Republicans and 47% for the Democrats among those voting for one of the two parties) would strongly predict that Republicans would win enough seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. If there is a widely disproportionate skew in turnout toward Republican voters and their national vote lead ends up being in the double digits, the Republican gains would be very substantial.How substantial could GOP gains be based on the Gallup numbers? According to Michael Barone, arguably America’s most influential election analyst, those gains could be the biggest since 1946, 1928 or even 1894, let alone 1994. As Barone notes in a piece for The Washington Examiner: ...
Could we PLEASE stop posting election polls that don't support what I believe?? PLEASE??Mods!!alert/alert/alert/alert/DUmode KC
soon as you find your manhood all else falls into place.
If Ft. Hood was "workplace violence," then the Hindenburg was an air show.
I don't know if sand glows in the dark, but we're gonna find out.
The semi-restoration of our country, and our lliberties is almost here!! I get more excited with every day that passes.November 2nd is almost here!!
