Mathematician Predicts Top Baseball Teams for 2008

[bijou]

...For the past seven seasons, Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology has used a mathematical model to predict how many games each Major League Baseball team is likely to win.

The model computes the probability that a team will win a game against another team given who is hitting, who's on the bench, who the starting pitcher and relievers are and which team has the home field advantage.

Bukiet, an avid New York Mets fan, predicts there will be clear frontrunners in the American League (AL) this year. Aside from the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels, the other teams will be "lagging well behind," he said.

The National League (NL) has a slightly murkier forecast: "The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason," Bukiet said.

...

more at the link http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344508,00.html

[BlueStateSaint]

...For the past seven seasons, Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology has used a mathematical model to predict how many games each Major League Baseball team is likely to win.

The model computes the probability that a team will win a game against another team given who is hitting, who's on the bench, who the starting pitcher and relievers are and which team has the home field advantage.

Bukiet, an avid New York Mets fan, predicts there will be clear frontrunners in the American League (AL) this year. Aside from the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels, the other teams will be "lagging well behind," he said.

The National League (NL) has a slightly murkier forecast: "The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason," Bukiet said.

...

more at the link http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344508,00.html

I've been saying that for a long time . . . 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Bijou, you cut out the most significant part:

Bukiet says that his picks are not always correct, though his model has made more correct than incorrect predictions for five of the past seven years.

Bukiet's predictions for last season were down slightly (he picked the Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets and Padres as clear Division winners — he was right about the Indians and Angels).

"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season," he said. "But there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account."

Basically he's a mathematician with a blog who makes baseball predictions.  Big whoop, so does everyone else.

Here are mine for 2008:

AL EAST
Boston 94-68
NY Yankees 90-72
Toronto 81-81
Tampa Bay 76-86
Baltimore 67-95

AL CENTRAL
Detroit 97-65
Cleveland 91-71
Chicago WS 83-79
Kansas City 75-87
Minnesota 71-91

AL WEST
LA Angels 95-67
Oakland 81-81
Seattle 80-82
Texas 72-90

NL EAST
Philadelphia 90-72
NY Mets 87-75
Atlanta 85-77
Florida 75-87
Washington 73-89

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 91-71
Milwaukee 86-76
Cincinnati 77-85
St. Louis 75-87
Pittsburgh 69-93
Houston 68-94

NL WEST
San Diego 89-73
Arizona 88-74
Colorado 83-79
LA Dodgers 82-80
San Francisco 59-103

AL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Tigers over Red Sox
Angels over Indians(WC)

ALCS
Tigers over Angels

NL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Cubs over Diamondbacks(WC)
Padres over Phillies

NLCS
Cubs over Phillies

WORLD SERIES
Detroit Tigers over Chicago Cubs in 7 agonizing games

We'll see how my pick stack up against this "mathematician's".

[bijou]

...For the past seven seasons, Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology has used a mathematical model to predict how many games each Major League Baseball team is likely to win.

The model computes the probability that a team will win a game against another team given who is hitting, who's on the bench, who the starting pitcher and relievers are and which team has the home field advantage.

Bukiet, an avid New York Mets fan, predicts there will be clear frontrunners in the American League (AL) this year. Aside from the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels, the other teams will be "lagging well behind," he said.

The National League (NL) has a slightly murkier forecast: "The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason," Bukiet said.

...

more at the link http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344508,00.html

I've been saying that for a long time . . . 

Math geek too are you? 

[bijou]

Bijou, you cut out the most significant part:

Bukiet says that his picks are not always correct, though his model has made more correct than incorrect predictions for five of the past seven years.

Bukiet's predictions for last season were down slightly (he picked the Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets and Padres as clear Division winners — he was right about the Indians and Angels).

"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season," he said. "But there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account."

Basically he's a mathematician with a blog who makes baseball predictions.  Big whoop, so does everyone else.

...
We'll see how my pick stack up against this "mathematician's".

Where's the fun in that part? 

[Flame]

Ralph, this :

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 91-71
Milwaukee 86-76
Cincinnati 77-85
St. Louis 75-87
Pittsburgh 69-93
Houston 68-94

got you a hi-5!
 

[BlueStateSaint]

...For the past seven seasons, Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology has used a mathematical model to predict how many games each Major League Baseball team is likely to win.

The model computes the probability that a team will win a game against another team given who is hitting, who's on the bench, who the starting pitcher and relievers are and which team has the home field advantage.

Bukiet, an avid New York Mets fan, predicts there will be clear frontrunners in the American League (AL) this year. Aside from the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels, the other teams will be "lagging well behind," he said.

The National League (NL) has a slightly murkier forecast: "The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason," Bukiet said.

...

more at the link http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344508,00.html

I've been saying that for a long time . . . 

Math geek too are you? 

Naah . . . just a feeling.