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Author Topic: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process  (Read 2829 times)

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Offline Chris_

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RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« on: February 16, 2009, 09:51:16 PM »
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2187216/posts

Quote
8:17 CT

I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.

Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.

It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.

At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.

There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.

Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."

The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.

To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.

Unfortunately.

I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.

I don't know what this all means, but I got a cold feeling in the pit of my stomach when I read it.

I hope you don't mind the cross-post from FR, but that seemed to be the most direct.

Can anyone interpret this for us non-superduper-financer types?
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Offline TheSarge

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2009, 10:01:52 PM »
Just a hunch.  But it would appear that it's tied into the fact that Japan's economic report today that their economy contracted at a 12.7% annual rate...the largest since the 70's has put the markets into a panic.



http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/world-markets-fall-japans-recession-deepens/
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Offline Chris_

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2009, 11:01:11 PM »
Quote from: TxRadioguy on February 16, 2009, 10:01:52 PM
Just a hunch.  But it would appear that it's tied into the fact that Japan's economic report today that their economy contracted at a 12.7% annual rate...the largest since the 70's has put the markets into a panic.



http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/world-markets-fall-japans-recession-deepens/

So, naturally the new fuhrer's handlers suggest the same path.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2009, 12:43:59 AM »
To be honest, I believe I remember reading something in the past that was very, very similar.  It was either a scam set-up or scene-setting for a fictional scenario, I forget which, of course this has a couple of up-to-date references in it.  Political boards are terrible places to get financial information, though, I'd check some sources that actually had a direct financial focus before taking FR, CC, DU, or any other non-financial board postings to heart.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2009, 06:08:54 AM by DumbAss Tanker »
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Offline Mike220

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2009, 02:08:38 AM »
Never fear! The Rontards are all over this and will get to the bottom of it.
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Offline Chris_

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2009, 02:29:33 AM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on February 17, 2009, 12:43:59 AM
To be honest, I believe I remember reading something something in the past that was very, very similar.  It was either a scam set-up or scene-setting for a fictional scenario, I forget which, of course this has a couple of up-to-date references in it.  Political boards are terrible places to get financial information, though, I'd check some sources that actually had a direct financial focus before taking FR, CC, DU, or any other non-financial board postings to heart.

Just wanted to know what all 'all was thnking -- my gut has been wrong in the past.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2009, 05:03:28 AM »
My wife, though she's often wrong about where these things are going, watches these things like a hawk.  We're watching CNBC's Squawk Box right now.  The Dow futures are off over 100, the euro is down but only a bit, NASDAQ futures are down . . . My advice is this--Invest in "precious metals"--lead, copper, and brass.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2009, 06:15:59 AM »
Quote from: BlueStateSaint on February 17, 2009, 05:03:28 AM
My wife, though she's often wrong about where these things are going, watches these things like a hawk.  We're watching CNBC's Squawk Box right now.  The Dow futures are off over 100, the euro is down but only a bit, NASDAQ futures are down . . . My advice is this--Invest in "precious metals"--lead, copper, and brass.

Sadly, unlike guns themselves, ammo degrades over time, no matter how carefully you care for it.  Killing ammo would ultimately screw us no matter what was stockpiled, though it would take several decades for ammo to degrade beyond usefulness.  Thing about Dow futures, just from my sense of watching stats on the morning news over the last couple of years, is that it seems to contraindicate the next day's activity as oftern as it actually indicates it.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2009, 07:00:43 AM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on February 17, 2009, 06:15:59 AM
Sadly, unlike guns themselves, ammo degrades over time, no matter how carefully you care for it.  Killing ammo would ultimately screw us no matter what was stockpiled, though it would take several decades for ammo to degrade beyond usefulness.  Thing about Dow futures, just from my sense of watching stats on the morning news over the last couple of years, is that it seems to contraindicate the next day's activity as oftern as it actually indicates it.

The bolded, my friend, is the operative statement there (first half of post).  I just looked at Bloomberg's site, and the lead article is about global stocks dropping, led by banks.
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Offline Thor

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2009, 08:20:34 AM »
DAT, there's WWII ammo out there and it still functions properly......
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2009, 08:55:58 AM »
Quote from: Thor on February 17, 2009, 08:20:34 AM
DAT, there's WWII ammo out there and it still functions properly......

My mileage with it has 'varied.'  For actual serious situations, I find it has an unacceptable failure rate, even though most of it will still go off.  I do have some more modern battle packs that should last longer than I will, though.   
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Offline djones520

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2009, 09:54:19 AM »
Not sure if it's related, but the DJIA is down more then 200 points already today.
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Offline thundley4

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Re: RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2009, 10:03:47 AM »
Quote from: djones520 on February 17, 2009, 09:54:19 AM
Not sure if it's related, but the DJIA is down more then 200 points already today.

DJIA down 245
NAS down 51
S&P down 30

Yay for the effects of the stimupork being signed today.
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