Author Topic: What is the likelyhood of a nuclear exchange sometime in the next four years?  (Read 2468 times)

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Offline Baruch Menachem

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Iran is buillding lots and lots of gas centrafuges, which means they are trying to build Hiroshima type devices. No need to test them.

They are also building missles.   Which don't seem to be too terribly accurate.  But in nuclear war, like in horseshoes, close counts.


Everyone is pretty sure Israel has nuclear devices, Israel isn't saying much.   Israel is like Dirty Harry in the first movie.... "Do you feel lucky, Punk?" 

Anyway, the way I see this playing out is that the Iranians shoot of two or three missles toward Israel, which sees them coming, and shoots back.  The Iranian missles will take out Jennin, Nablus, and Aman, The Israelis do Hydrogen bombs on Iran, Qom, and the next largest Iranian city, whatever that is, plus a few more for good measure.

And Obama will say "That isn't the Iran that I know...."
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Making a missile that'll get to Israel, and making a bomb that will fit into it are two independent and difficult tasks, even if you have the "Making it at all" part down thanks to renegade Paki scientists.  I'm sure they'd LIKE to be able to do it in four years, I have reservations about their capability to really do that, though.  It is possible that they might try to build a bomb and use it in a surface mode, clandestinely moving it to the target disguised as cargo, probably hidden in a container or submerged in oil aboard a tanker, but possibly as air cargo on a suicide mission.  Israel may be their most desired target, but it would be a mistake to think that it is their ONLY target, especially if they use a covert means of delivery rather than a missile (with all the weight, size, and range limitations that would entail).   
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Offline Baruch Menachem

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I think they already have missiles that have the range, don't they?  They launched a few a couple months back, IIRC.


And the Hiroshima device is relativly simple.  (they never bothered to test it back in 45, partly because getting the material was so hard.)

I quite agree Israel is  not the main target, but they are in range of the missles now.

if the Iranians had their choice of targets, I think in order they would be

  • New York City
  • DC[/il]
    • LA
    • San Francisco
    • Boston
    • Miami
    • New Orleans

    I think getting it onto a freighter and getting it into the harbor is all they really need to do.  But I think they also realize that there is no plausable deniablilty, and I think the US respone would be very fast.  Even with Obama.

    I think they would also go for a softer target.

    They are getting close, I understand, so with the election of Obama, some western city will go boom soon or late.  It is just a matter of time and what they think they can get away with.  DC would be the hardest, but also the one the probably want the most.   Tel Aviv is the one that would give their vanity the biggest boost.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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I think that it's going to happen, maybe before Obama finishes his (one) term.  If it does happen in the next four years, the Republicans need to demand the same sort of Inquisition that the Dems got with the 9/11 Commission, at the very least.
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Offline megimoo

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I think they already have missiles that have the range, don't they?  They launched a few a couple months back, IIRC.


And the Hiroshima device is relativly simple.  (they never bothered to test it back in 45, partly because getting the material was so hard.)

I quite agree Israel is  not the main target, but they are in range of the missles now.

if the Iranians had their choice of targets, I think in order they would be

  • New York City
  • DC[/il]
    • LA
    • San Francisco
    • Boston
    • Miami
    • New Orleans

    I think getting it onto a freighter and getting it into the harbor is all they really need to do.  But I think they also realize that there is no plausable deniablilty, and I think the US respone would be very fast.  Even with Obama.

    I think they would also go for a softer target.

    They are getting close, I understand, so with the election of Obama, some western city will go boom soon or late.  It is just a matter of time and what they think they can get away with.  DC would be the hardest, but also the one the probably want the most.   Tel Aviv is the one that would give their vanity the biggest boost.
This last ship the Samoaian pirates captured. The one that killed a few pirates when they broke open a sealed cargo hold must have been carrying radioactive waste to affect them like that .It came from Iran and no one ever examined the contents but I'll bet the American Navy had a good sniff with Tacomo aircraft for any radiation.
Iran was trying to sneak one into either America of Israel but most likely into some place in Lebanon for Hezbollah!

If Iran ever launches a warhead at Israel it will be Uranium based and under twelve kilotons yield with a total physic package weight of about two hundred fifty pounds minus shielding .The most effective target would be an air burst at about one thousand feet over Tell Aviv and killing over one hundred thousand people instantly and another half million eventually .And in return Iran would reap the whirlwind of destruction with military and all Republican guard points decimated.

Most of the Nuclear Facility's would be gutted by Nuclear BunkerBusters and the rest would be sealed under Hundreds of tons of RadioActive debris .Iran would cease to exist as a country and the death tolls would run into the high millions.Israeli warheads are Plutonium based and run into the four hundred megaton yield range .The Nuclear BunkerBusters are a bit smaller being optimized for blast after deep penetration ![/list]

Offline Chris_

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    This last ship the Samoaian pirates captured. The one that killed a few pirates when they broke open a sealed cargo hold must have been carrying radioactive waste to affect them like that .It came from Iran and no one ever examined the contents but I'll bet the American Navy had a good sniff with Tacomo aircraft for any radiation.
    Iran was trying to sneak one into either America of Israel but most likely into some place in Lebanon for Hezbollah!

    If Iran ever launches a warhead at Israel it will be Uranium based and under twelve kilotons yield with a total physic package weight of about two hundred fifty pounds minus shielding .The most effective target would be an air burst at about one thousand feet over Tell Aviv and killing over one hundred thousand people instantly and another half million eventually .And in return Iran would reap the whirlwind of destruction with military and all Republican guard points decimated.

    Most of the Nuclear Facility's would be gutted by Nuclear BunkerBusters and the rest would be sealed under Hundreds of tons of RadioActive debris .Iran would cease to exist as a country and the death tolls would run into the high millions.Israeli warheads are Plutonium based and run into the four hundred megaton yield range .The Nuclear BunkerBusters are a bit smaller being optimized for blast after deep penetration ![/list]

    So many assumptions here.......

    First, a uranium device is relatively easy to construct, a bright high school physics student can likely do it with the right equipment......however, building a reliable device that won't kill everyone within a quarter mile of it, and building it small and lightweight enough for use by an airborne delivery vehicle, is another matter entirely.  With this in mind, the yield of a device that would fall within the payload capability of the present class of Iranian missiles would likely fall within the one to three kiloton range (similar to our old tactical nukes).  Further building such a device that is well enough shielded that it won't light up every gamma detector in the free world makes things even more complex.  I don't believe that Iranian technology is anywhere near that sophisticated at this point.

    I have it on fairly good authority that Israel has the capability to reduce most of the Islamic world to a uninhabitable glass parking lot, should the need arise.......and if attacked, they would not, for a moment, hesitate to do so.  Therefore, ironically, in the dawning age of American political cowardice (thanks to the Obama voters), I find Israel the emerging last, best hope for the expansion of freedom in the Middle East.

    Strange.......but interesting times we live in.......

    doc
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    Offline LC EFA

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    IIRC Israel is the only place with a functional missile defense system. I recall them having a bunch of Patriot systems in place even as early as Desert Storm.

    Surely by now they'd have improved that system to the point where it could stop anything Iran is likely to throw at them.


    Offline DumbAss Tanker

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      So many assumptions here.......

      First, a uranium device is relatively easy to construct, a bright high school physics student can likely do it with the right equipment......however, building a
    reliable device that won't kill everyone within a quarter mile of it, and building it small and lightweight enough for use by an airborne delivery vehicle, is another matter entirely.  With this in mind, the yield of a device that would fall within the payload capability of the present class of Iranian missiles would likely fall within the one to three kiloton range (similar to our old tactical nukes).  Further building such a device that is well enough shielded that it won't light up every gamma detector in the free world makes things even more complex.  I don't believe that Iranian technology is anywhere near that sophisticated at this point.

    I have it on fairly good authority that Israel has the capability to reduce most of the Islamic world to a uninhabitable glass parking lot, should the need arise.......and if attacked, they would not, for a moment, hesitate to do so.  Therefore, ironically, in the dawning age of American political cowardice (thanks to the Obama voters), I find Israel the emerging last, best hope for the expansion of freedom in the Middle East.

    Strange.......but interesting times we live in.......

    doc

    My point exactly, making a functional bomb and putting it into a package they can loft all the way to Israel with their iffy-at-best low-payload missiles are entirely different things.  Also, there is a critical part to reliably initiating a cascading neutron reaction that isn't covered in high school physics or anywhere else that's readily accessible.[/list]
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    Offline Thor

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    IIRC Israel is the only place with a functional missile defense system. I recall them having a bunch of Patriot systems in place even as early as Desert Storm.

    Surely by now they'd have improved that system to the point where it could stop anything Iran is likely to throw at them.



    The Patriot Missile system is/was flawed, at least as late as OIF. I've never read if they got the flaws fixed. I sure hope that they have. During OIF, I knew what one of the flaws was, but was unable to assist in it's repair as I had been retired nine years.
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    Offline Chris_

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    The Patriot Missile system is/was flawed, at least as late as OIF. I've never read if they got the flaws fixed. I sure hope that they have. During OIF, I knew what one of the flaws was, but was unable to assist in it's repair as I had been retired nine years.

    I think that's one reason that we've been 'pedal to the metal' in bringing the THAAD system on-line.
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    Offline Chris_

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    Iran is buillding lots and lots of gas centrafuges, which means they are trying to build Hiroshima type devices. No need to test them.

    They are also building missles.   Which don't seem to be too terribly accurate.  But in nuclear war, like in horseshoes, close counts.


    Everyone is pretty sure Israel has nuclear devices, Israel isn't saying much.   Israel is like Dirty Harry in the first movie.... "Do you feel lucky, Punk?" 

    Anyway, the way I see this playing out is that the Iranians shoot of two or three missles toward Israel, which sees them coming, and shoots back.  The Iranian missles will take out Jennin, Nablus, and Aman, The Israelis do Hydrogen bombs on Iran, Qom, and the next largest Iranian city, whatever that is, plus a few more for good measure.

    And Obama will say "That isn't the Iran that I know...."

    With a perceived dove/wimpy USA which has turned its back on Israel -- I would say the chances approach certainty.
    If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.

    Offline SSG Snuggle Bunny

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    if the Iranians had their choice of targets, I think in order they would be

    • New York City
    • DC[/il]
      • LA
      • San Francisco
      • Boston
      • Miami
      • New Orleans
    IF--and this is a mighty big if--they were to actually fire one off they would seek to ensure their own survival.

    Handing one off to terrorists counts only if they wish to launch an attack surreptiously; but the problem here is that the residue could be traced back to them thus negating the hoped for effect.

    Attacking Israel would make sense IF they could be certain Israel was sufficiently devastated to be unable to respond. Not likely considering Israel is presumed to have as many as 200 warheads. Such a strategy would also necessitate making sure the US or EU did not sek to avenge the destruction of Israel.

    We'll see what the Annoited One has to say about that in the next 3 months or so.

    MY GUESS: The Iranians want a working device not to fire but to threaten. It becomes a tool to bully their way to their foreign policy objectives.[/list]
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    Offline asdf2231

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    Pakistan vs India scares the living crap out of me more than Iran vs Anyone.




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    Offline Chris_

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    Pakistan vs India scares the living crap out of me more than Iran vs Anyone.

    How 'bout Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the hands of al Qaeda/Taliban forces (after Pakistan's government folds) vs. the rest of the civilized world?

    Anybody with a standard of living more advanced than the 7th century Anno Domini is a valid target to the "fundamentalists".
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    Offline Lacarnut

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    I am surprised we have not been attacked by terrorist since 9/11. I think a bombing, chemical or biological attack is coming in the next year or two. Hoping Obama has more balls than Clinton but I would not bank on it. LBJ, Carter and Bubba were all pussies when it came to growing a pair. As far as the US getting hit with a nuke, I don't think that will happen for many years to come. The middle east is another story if Pakistan losies control of their nukes to the nut jobs.
    « Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 10:33:54 PM by Lacarnut »

    Offline megimoo

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    Pakistan vs India scares the living crap out of me more than Iran vs Anyone.
    They should because they both have graduated into plotonium warheads with much bigger yields.

    Offline megimoo

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      So many assumptions here.......

      First, a uranium device is relatively easy to construct, a bright high school physics student can likely do it with the right equipment......however, building a
    reliable device that won't kill everyone within a quarter mile of it, and building it small and lightweight enough for use by an airborne delivery vehicle, is another matter entirely.  With this in mind, the yield of a device that would fall within the payload capability of the present class of Iranian missiles would likely fall within the one to three kiloton range (similar to our old tactical nukes).  Further building such a device that is well enough shielded that it won't light up every gamma detector in the free world makes things even more complex.  I don't believe that Iranian technology is anywhere near that sophisticated at this point.

    I have it on fairly good authority that Israel has the capability to reduce most of the Islamic world to a uninhabitable glass parking lot, should the need arise.......and if attacked, they would not, for a moment, hesitate to do so.  Therefore, ironically, in the dawning age of American political cowardice (thanks to the Obama voters), I find Israel the emerging last, best hope for the expansion of freedom in the Middle East.

    Strange.......but interesting times we live in.......

    doc
    The First Nuclear device used on Japan :
    The only calculations needed once the concept was proven was the size of the critical mass needed to produce a sustained reaction Ie
    one that would continue until all of the fuel was consumed .Initial calculations proved that about 7 kilograms = 15.4 pounds of U238 was all that was needed but they super_sized it just to make sure to about 40 pounds !

    snip
    dropped an 8,900-pound atomic weapon from its specially modified bomb bay. Two thousand feet above the ground, the bomb, dubbed "Little Boy" by its makers, detonated, leveling almost 90% of the city.

    Fat Man and Little Boy, both weapons of unparalleled destructive power, were actually quite different. Little Boy, fueled by highly enriched uranium-235, was triggered by a simple "gun" mechanism; a small, slug-shaped piece of uranium was fired down a barrel into a larger, cup-shaped piece. This elementary design generated a destructive force of about 15 kilotons—the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT.

    The first bomb 'little boy' was made out of a six foot long ,three inch anti aircraft gun barrel with its breech to fire half of the hemisphere into the other useing a 3"  blank round to drive the uranium slug .
    The two hemispheres of u238 when slammed together produced the reactive explosion . the final yield was 15 kt (+/- 20%).

    The gun was a 3" (inside diameter) anti-aircraft barrel, 6.5" wide, and six feet long that had been bored out to 4" to accommodate the bullet. It weighed about 450 kg, and had a breech block weighing 34 kg. Cordite, a conventional artillery smokeless powder, was used as the propellant, and the velocity achieved by the bullet was 300 m/sec.

     A much more complex implosion-type device triggered Fat Man. It consisted of a plutonium core surrounded by high explosives wired to explode simultaneously. The shock waves from these conventional explosions triggered the fission of the plutonium, which yielded a 22-kiloton explosion.

    http://www.cartage.org.lb/en/themes/Sciences/Chemistry/NuclearChemistry/NuclearWeapons/FirstChainReaction/FirstNuclWeapons/LittleBoy.htm
    [/list]
    « Last Edit: January 20, 2009, 09:21:14 AM by megimoo »

    Offline Baruch Menachem

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    I think Iran dosn't really care how close they get to Tel Aviv.   Aman, Tel Aviv, what the diff?

    I am pretty sure Israel has Hydrogen bombs by now.  Not that much of a tech step up.  I think everyone here remembers the Bikini pictures.   

    I am pretty sure the clock is already ticking on this
    An optimist sees the glass as half full, a pessimist sees the glass as half empty, an engineer sees that there is twice the glass required to contain the beer

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    Offline Chris_

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      The First Nuclear device used on Japan :
      The only calculations needed once the concept was proven was the size of the critical mass needed to produce a sustained reaction Ie
      one that would continue until all of the fuel was consumed .Initial calculations proved that about 7 kilograms = 15.4 pounds of U238 was all that was needed but they super_sized it just to make sure to about 40 pounds !

      snip
      dropped an 8,900-pound atomic weapon from its specially modified bomb bay. Two thousand feet above the ground, the bomb, dubbed "Little Boy" by its makers, detonated, leveling almost 90% of the city.

      Fat Man and Little Boy, both weapons of unparalleled destructive power, were actually quite different. Little Boy, fueled by highly enriched uranium-235, was triggered by a simple "gun" mechanism; a small, slug-shaped piece of uranium was fired down a barrel into a larger, cup-shaped piece. This elementary design generated a destructive force of about 15 kilotons—the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT.

      The first bomb 'little boy' was made out of a six foot long ,three inch anti aircraft gun barrel with its breech to fire half of the hemisphere into the other useing a 3"  blank round to drive the uranium slug .
      The two hemispheres of u238 when slammed together produced the reactive explosion . the final yield was 15 kt (+/- 20%).

      The gun was a 3" (inside diameter) anti-aircraft barrel, 6.5" wide, and six feet long that had been bored out to 4" to accommodate the bullet. It weighed about 450 kg, and had a breech block weighing 34 kg. Cordite, a conventional artillery smokeless powder, was used as the propellant, and the velocity achieved by the bullet was 300 m/sec.

       A much more complex implosion-type device triggered Fat Man. It consisted of a plutonium core surrounded by high explosives wired to explode simultaneously. The shock waves from these conventional explosions triggered the fission of the plutonium, which yielded a 22-kiloton explosion.

      http://www.cartage.org.lb/en/themes/Sciences/Chemistry/NuclearChemistry/NuclearWeapons/FirstChainReaction/FirstNuclWeapons/LittleBoy.htm
      [/list]

      I am aware of both the design and yield of the two devices used during WW II, that does not alter my points regarding Iran however......

      doc
      If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.