live thread: election night 2009

[franksolich]

If a person with powers could sticky this to the top, I'd appreciate it.

This is the live thread for election night 2009.

There isn't much going on in this off-year election, but it might have clues for the mid-term elections of 2010.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125720723841924171.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections
Outcomes in New York, New Jersey and Virginia Are Unlikely to Forecast Much About National Races in 2010, History Shows

WASHINGTON -- Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years.

Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party's ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections.

"We will be looking very closely at the results in these three races and reminding Democrats of the message they send about the agenda that they are forcing on American taxpayers," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which coordinates GOP House races.

A Republican sweep in Tuesday's key contests would at minimum show that Democrats face much tougher political terrain than they did a year ago. GOP victories would also help the party's fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2010, providing backing for arguments that Republicans have the momentum, and that voters are turning against the Obama agenda.

But it can be difficult to draw broader conclusions from off-year contests, which often turn on local issues......

[franksolich]

Going back to 1989, one party swept the off-year gubernatorial elections five times. Three of those times, that party also won the following year's congressional elections; twice it did not.

In 1993, Republicans Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey and George Allen in Virginia captured their states' governor's mansions. The following year brought the dramatic Republican takeover of Congress.

In 2001 gubernatorial races, Democrats Jim McGreevey in New Jersey and Mark Warner in Virginia swept to victory. The next year, Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate.....

In June 2006, Republicans won a special House race in California, and Republicans crowed that the Democrats' much-ballyhooed momentum was a fantasy. But in the fall elections that year, Democrats captured 31 seats and retook the House for the first time in 12 years.

"I don't think they say anything," Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, said of off-year elections. "The sample is too small and the issues are local."

That IS the problem with these off-year elections; there's too few of them.

The off-year elections of 2011 will be more substantial.

[franksolich]

Each of Tuesday's three high-profile races has unique factors that could confound efforts to discern national trends. In New Jersey, independent Chris Daggett is attracting significant support -- which could tip the outcome toward incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in his close race with Republican challenger Chris Christie.....

In Virginia's gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell has led by double digits for weeks and is likely to end a recent Democratic surge in a longtime Republican state. Democrat R. Creigh Deeds has been weighed down as much by his troubles addressing questions about state tax and transportation policy as by his ties to Mr. Obama's policies.....

In New York, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has surged into the lead in the 23rd Congressional District, according to two polls, following the abrupt withdrawal Saturday of Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. A Siena Research Institute Poll showed Mr. Hoffman, who was embraced by the Republican Party following Ms. Scozzafava's withdrawal, leading 41% to 36%. A survey by Public Policy Polling showed a bigger lead, 54% to 38%.....

[franksolich]

If anybody is aware of any other races of significance, please inform.

There is also a congressional race in California, but as it's a blue district in a corrupt blue state, the outcome of that race is already determined, no matter what the honest vote count is.

[franksolich]

Among issues on ballots today, there's two regarding marriage.

In Maine, a "yes" vote stands up for the commonsensical definition of "marriage."

In Washington (state), a "no" vote stands up for the traditional definition of "marriage."

[franksolich]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/11/ny-23-doug-hoffman-bill-owens-joe-biden.html

Last-minute NY 23rd poll: Conservative Doug Hoffman surges, but ...

A last-minute poll of New York's suddenly significant 23rd District interim House race shows that with less than 12 hours before voting begins, the Conservative/Republican candidate Doug Hoffman has built a 5-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens.

But the newfound allies of Hoffman and the Republican National Committee had best hold off on the champagne purchases. The undecided voters there have doubled to nearly 1 in 5, making the final hours volatile.....

New York's 23rd Congressional District was the scene of significant military....

...combat during both the American Revolution and the War of 1812. Historically, the 15,000-square mile chunk of upstate New York hard by Canada has also voted Republican -- going for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, switching to Obama in 2008, but consistently sending a GOP member to Congress since the late 1800s.

Today the largely rural area is the scene of a fascinating political struggle among Republicans and Republicans and Democrats.

The interim House election race -- caused by President Obama's clever appointment of the Republican incumbent to the positively essential job of secretary of the Army -- will settle one House seat out of 435. And even if the Republican/Conservative candidate holds it, absolutely nothing changes with the Democrats' lopsided control of the House of Representatives, 257-178.

The symbolism comes in two forms: It's seen as a microscopic referendum on the Obama-Biden spending agenda. So are the governor's races in New Jersey, where it's very close, and in Virginia, home state for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, incumbent Gov. Tim Kaine, where the Republican is pulling way ahead.

Two or three referendum losses for the less-than-10-month-old Obama administration would augur ill for next year's midterm congressional elections, when history already stacks the deck against the party holding the White House......

[asdf2231]

Glad you got your thread stickied Frank!

[TheSarge]

NY-23 is where now SecArmy John McHugh was representing.  It's got Watertown/10th Mountain smack in the middle of it.

Rush was talking about this one today and he says the only reason that McHugh was tapped as SecArmy was so the DNC could put one of their own in that district.

But Hoffman has thrown a wrench into those plans.

[franksolich]

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDY5MzVlYTFmOWU2OGI0NzY0ZjYxY2E0ZGNiMzM5ZGY=

In New Jersey, Turnout Higher In GOP and Swing Districts Than In Democrats

I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts.

A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one, but it's not that far from it.

Now, this should NOT be interpreted as ipso facto evidence that Chris Christie is going to win. Democratic districts may have more voters show up later in the day. This isn't an exit poll, and we have no idea how the folks in any of these districts are voting; we just know that they're showing up and voting.

But, as of this morning, turnout was higher Republican areas of the state than in Democratic ones, and that has to make Chris Christie and his supporters feel like they're doing their jobs well...

UPDATE: I have a bit more detail now. Again, this is based strictly on the morning turnout, and there's the afternoon and evening turnout could look completely different.

The two heaviest turnout counties are Hunterdon, which McCain carried by 13.3 percent over Barack Obama, and Morris County, which McCain carried by 8.1 percent.

The phenomenon is not uniform; Union Country's turnout is described as above Ocean's, and Obama carried Union by 27 percent; Ocean County's turnout is described as "good," and McCain carried that county by 18 percent.

Hudson County and Essex County were described as "light." Hudson County is heavily Democratic, with Obama carrying it by 46 percent last year; he carried Essex County with 75 percent of the vote.

Salem County's turnout is described as "unbelievably sleepy"; Obama carried that county by 4 percent.

[DixieBelle]

McDonnell is polling ahead of Deeds in the VA Gov race...

[TheSarge]

McDonnell is polling ahead of Deeds in the VA Gov race...

This morning he was ahead by 11 points.  I hope it holds up.

[miskie]

I'm pretty certain of the VA race - McDonnell wins.  The NY one I feel will go for the conservative Hoffman, but only by a few points. However, I predict not so rosy an outcome for NJ - I predict that NJ will appear to have been won by Christie, but then magically appearing ballots will 'correct' that oversight.

[thundley4]

I'm pretty certain of the VA race - McDonnell wins.  The NY one I feel will go for the conservative Hoffman, but only by a few points. However, I predict not so rosy an outcome for NJ - I predict that NJ will appear to have been won by Christie, but then magically appearing ballots will 'correct' that oversight.

Christie might even lose it during a recount when some provisional absentee ballots are counted.

[miskie]

Christie might even lose it during a recount when some provisional absentee ballots are counted.

Oh yeah- anywhere the Democrat machine can inject some love.

[Splashdown]

If it comes down to winning by a recount in that liberal cesspool that is New Jersey, that should still encourage conservatives for the coming battle in 2010.

[franksolich]

According to Drudge, the results should be in:

Virginia at 7:00 p.m.

New Jersey at 8:00 p.m.

New York at 9:00 p.m.

I'm assuming those are eastern standard time, as Drudge, like my fellow alum Skins, refuses to acknowledge the heart of America, central and mountain standard times.

[NHSparky]

Yes, coach, those are EST.

[miskie]

If it comes down to winning by a recount in that liberal cesspool that is New Jersey, that should still encourage conservatives for the coming battle in 2010.

this is why the Dems are nervous- and some Republicans - these elections are less about Republicans winning, and more about Obama losing support --To the so called 'teabaggers'. It is also true that the elections themselves will change nothing 'tangible', nor will it derail the Obama agenda - It does however invigorate the opposition, who will then realize that the people can deny the will of The One, and survive. These three elections are symbolic paydirt for the efforts of many common people. People who will be emboldened to do more.

Why else would a political administration set it sights on discrediting common people and not just political opponents ? Why would high level personnel in the Obama cabinet attack a cable news organization that does nothing on Capitol Hill ? Why would it be commonplace for those who dislike Obama be treated as if something is wrong with them ? Its all PsyOps - to demoralize the enemy with propaganda . Its just this time Americans are the problem, not a foreign country.

The Tea Party folks consist of small-town Republicans, Libertarians, and independents. If they are emboldened to align under the GOP flag and work to set the party back to it's core principles, then the Democrats will be in a world of hurt.
 

[franksolich]

Fox expected to call Virginia in a few minutes.

Double-digits.

And damn, I can't get onto any vote count sites.

[Chris_]

Fox expected to call Virginia in a few minutes.

Double-digits.

And damn, I can't get onto any vote count sites.

FoxNews.com is calling it "too close to call", on their breaking news banner that went up right at poll closure.

[franksolich]

McDonnell 70%
Deeds 29%

I have no idea what % of the votes that is.

[Chris]

My car is kaput for a few hours until my battery charges, so it looks like I'm hanging out here tonight. 

CNN is taking a commercial break and is going to follow with election results.  I really wish I didn't have to listen to CNN, but Fox doesn't have an online audio stream.

[NHSparky]

This on the CNN website sidebar on one of their stories:

Conservative revolt led moderate Republican to drop out of U.S. House race in New York

Wow.  If she was "moderate", I'd hate to see their idea of liberal.

Of course, the story headline goes:

Analysis: Anger, frustration fuel Election Day 2009

Gee, ya think?

[Chris]

67% McDowell leading that other guy that only has 35% with 1% reporting.  Yay.

[Chris]

I think I found a Fox News audio stream: http://www.foxnews.com/radio/index.html