Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections
Outcomes in New York, New Jersey and Virginia Are Unlikely to Forecast Much About National Races in 2010, History Shows
WASHINGTON -- Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years.
Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party's ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections.
"We will be looking very closely at the results in these three races and reminding Democrats of the message they send about the agenda that they are forcing on American taxpayers," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which coordinates GOP House races.
A Republican sweep in Tuesday's key contests would at minimum show that Democrats face much tougher political terrain than they did a year ago. GOP victories would also help the party's fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2010, providing backing for arguments that Republicans have the momentum, and that voters are turning against the Obama agenda.
But it can be difficult to draw broader conclusions from off-year contests, which often turn on local issues......
Going back to 1989, one party swept the off-year gubernatorial elections five times. Three of those times, that party also won the following year's congressional elections; twice it did not.
In 1993, Republicans Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey and George Allen in Virginia captured their states' governor's mansions. The following year brought the dramatic Republican takeover of Congress.
In 2001 gubernatorial races, Democrats Jim McGreevey in New Jersey and Mark Warner in Virginia swept to victory. The next year, Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate.....
In June 2006, Republicans won a special House race in California, and Republicans crowed that the Democrats' much-ballyhooed momentum was a fantasy. But in the fall elections that year, Democrats captured 31 seats and retook the House for the first time in 12 years.
"I don't think they say anything," Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, said of off-year elections. "The sample is too small and the issues are local."
Each of Tuesday's three high-profile races has unique factors that could confound efforts to discern national trends. In New Jersey, independent Chris Daggett is attracting significant support -- which could tip the outcome toward incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in his close race with Republican challenger Chris Christie.....
In Virginia's gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell has led by double digits for weeks and is likely to end a recent Democratic surge in a longtime Republican state. Democrat R. Creigh Deeds has been weighed down as much by his troubles addressing questions about state tax and transportation policy as by his ties to Mr. Obama's policies.....
In New York, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has surged into the lead in the 23rd Congressional District, according to two polls, following the abrupt withdrawal Saturday of Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. A Siena Research Institute Poll showed Mr. Hoffman, who was embraced by the Republican Party following Ms. Scozzafava's withdrawal, leading 41% to 36%. A survey by Public Policy Polling showed a bigger lead, 54% to 38%.....
Last-minute NY 23rd poll: Conservative Doug Hoffman surges, but ...
A last-minute poll of New York's suddenly significant 23rd District interim House race shows that with less than 12 hours before voting begins, the Conservative/Republican candidate Doug Hoffman has built a 5-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens.
But the newfound allies of Hoffman and the Republican National Committee had best hold off on the champagne purchases. The undecided voters there have doubled to nearly 1 in 5, making the final hours volatile.....
New York's 23rd Congressional District was the scene of significant military....
...combat during both the American Revolution and the War of 1812. Historically, the 15,000-square mile chunk of upstate New York hard by Canada has also voted Republican -- going for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, switching to Obama in 2008, but consistently sending a GOP member to Congress since the late 1800s.
Today the largely rural area is the scene of a fascinating political struggle among Republicans and Republicans and Democrats.
The interim House election race -- caused by President Obama's clever appointment of the Republican incumbent to the positively essential job of secretary of the Army -- will settle one House seat out of 435. And even if the Republican/Conservative candidate holds it, absolutely nothing changes with the Democrats' lopsided control of the House of Representatives, 257-178.
The symbolism comes in two forms: It's seen as a microscopic referendum on the Obama-Biden spending agenda. So are the governor's races in New Jersey, where it's very close, and in Virginia, home state for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, incumbent Gov. Tim Kaine, where the Republican is pulling way ahead.
Two or three referendum losses for the less-than-10-month-old Obama administration would augur ill for next year's midterm congressional elections, when history already stacks the deck against the party holding the White House......
In New Jersey, Turnout Higher In GOP and Swing Districts Than In Democrats
I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts.
A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one, but it's not that far from it.
Now, this should NOT be interpreted as ipso facto evidence that Chris Christie is going to win. Democratic districts may have more voters show up later in the day. This isn't an exit poll, and we have no idea how the folks in any of these districts are voting; we just know that they're showing up and voting.
But, as of this morning, turnout was higher Republican areas of the state than in Democratic ones, and that has to make Chris Christie and his supporters feel like they're doing their jobs well...
UPDATE: I have a bit more detail now. Again, this is based strictly on the morning turnout, and there's the afternoon and evening turnout could look completely different.
The two heaviest turnout counties are Hunterdon, which McCain carried by 13.3 percent over Barack Obama, and Morris County, which McCain carried by 8.1 percent.
The phenomenon is not uniform; Union Country's turnout is described as above Ocean's, and Obama carried Union by 27 percent; Ocean County's turnout is described as "good," and McCain carried that county by 18 percent.
Hudson County and Essex County were described as "light." Hudson County is heavily Democratic, with Obama carrying it by 46 percent last year; he carried Essex County with 75 percent of the vote.
Salem County's turnout is described as "unbelievably sleepy"; Obama carried that county by 4 percent.
McDonnell is polling ahead of Deeds in the VA Gov race...
I'm pretty certain of the VA race - McDonnell wins. The NY one I feel will go for the conservative Hoffman, but only by a few points. However, I predict not so rosy an outcome for NJ - I predict that NJ will appear to have been won by Christie, but then magically appearing ballots will 'correct' that oversight.
Christie might even lose it during a recount when some provisional absentee ballots are counted.
If it comes down to winning by a recount in that liberal cesspool that is New Jersey, that should still encourage conservatives for the coming battle in 2010.
Fox expected to call Virginia in a few minutes.
Double-digits.
And damn, I can't get onto any vote count sites.
Conservative revolt led moderate Republican to drop out of U.S. House race in New York
Analysis: Anger, frustration fuel Election Day 2009
Warning to city of Atlanta voters in Fulton County -- if you're voting from 7 to 8 p.m., you're using a paper ballot, which will be hand-counted, state election officials say. City of Atlanta voters in DeKalb County will still use machines.
oh boy.
Atlanta, GA is electing a new mayor. This was just posted on the Journal & Constitution's website...
All three top spots--governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general--going to the (R) by circa 67% at the moment.
FoxNews.com is calling it "too close to call", on their breaking news banner that went up right at poll closure.
FoxNews.com is calling it "too close to call", on their breaking news banner that went up right at poll closure.
STILL nothing on NJ or NY. They must be busy manufacturing votes for the Democrats.
STILL nothing on NJ or NY. They must be busy manufacturing votes for the Democrats.
Any DUmmie tears yet?
Probably.
Without even going over there, I can tell you what the primitives are saying.
They're saying these three races don't count.
Probably.
Without even going over there, I can tell you what the primitives are saying.
They're saying these three races don't count.
Any word on NY-23?
So.....Bo's watching sports instead of the elections on television tonight?
So.....Bo's watching sports instead of the elections on television tonight?
What game's on?
How are the conservatives doing in that House election in CA?
Christie, Chris GOP 36,958 49%I heard Christie and Hannity to day saying that Corzine hasn't been polling above 42% and he really needs Daggett to get his numbers up.
Corzine, Jon (i) Dem 32,268 43%
Daggett, Christopher Ind 5,478 7%
NBA hasn't kicked off yet.
The NBA is in the regular season.
Some sort of glitch with the Virginia official totals--which I can't get--as they're showing McDonnell with 85% of the vote.
So how pissy do you think Rahm is tonight? I bet his tutu is in quite a twist right about now. :-)
167,323 Christie [R] 134,055 Corzine [D] 18,373 Daggett
I thought Bloomberg in NYC had switched to Independent?He got the city council to waive that because he's a liberal. I remember after 9/11 when Rudy's people floated the idea that he should be allowed to run for another term because of the great job he was doing and that idea was shot down faster than a German hydrogen airship.
The WABC elections page has him listed as a Republican. And I thought NYC mayors were limited to two terms.
Deeds has conceded the race to McDonnell.Yeah baby!!!!
(http://i200.photobucket.com/albums/aa200/DefiantSix/BreakingNews_LatestNews_CurrentNews.jpg)Hope the trend continues. :thumbs:
What is this "intrade" thingamajig?
Corzine plummeted the last couple of hours from "60" to "15."
What a bloodletting. I'll bet the DUmmies are going apeshyt.
(http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y53/ColonialMarine/GIFS-Animated/221.gif)
It's a political equivalent of the stock market. I don't know if you can bet actual money or if it's just points and numbers.
Why is the judge sealing the ballots in the New York congressional race?
Can you say, "ACORN?"
Governor - General
2788 of 6305 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Christie, Chris GOP 513,351 49%
Corzine, Jon (i) Dem 459,383 44%
from nj.com (http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Page_1103.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS) as of 9:24
And, there are no results showing anywhere on the web for NY 23. Unavailable is all it says. FGL was right. Teh work of ACORN?
P.S. Frank, thanks for replying. I found ya!
That was a nice jolt.
Rahm's probably switched to Vodka by now.
Rahm's probably switched to Vodka by now.
Alcohol poisoning would be a nice finale for the night.
Christie 815,932 50%
Corzine 716,265 44%
66% reporting
U.S. House - District 23 - Special General
112 of 606 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Owens, Bill Dem 13,780 51%
Hoffman, Doug Con 11,719 43%
Scozzafava, Dede GOP 1,442 5%
Liz Benjamin of the New York Daily News is reporting there are at least 10,226 paper ballots out for the 23rd Congressional District.
“Unless the margin of victory for either Democratic candidate Bill Owens or Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman is 8,000 to 9,000, we’re headed for a massive recount a la NY-20,†she writes tonight.
apparently, there are some serious voting machine glitches in NY-23. Some votes may not be tallied 'til tomorrow.
Fox calls it for Christie! :cheersmate:
205 of 606 Precincts Reporting - 34%
Owens, Bill Dem 24,782 51%
Hoffman, Doug Con 21,404 44%
Scozzafava, Dede GOP 2,443 5%
Okay, this wasn't a good night for me, because I couldn't get on to any of the official election returns web-sites, and had to dash all around finding numbers.Good night Frank. Thanks for your hard work.
So the head's spinning, and time to hit the sack.
Karl Rove says Hoffman is still likely to win in New York.
I suspect when I wake up in the morning, that particular election will be up in the air.
Why in Hell are people voting for Scuzzyfavabeans?
Why in Hell are people voting for Scuzzyfavabeans?
DUmmies having a fit over NJ Frank?
Does the MSM see this Garamandi vs. Harmer House election sewn up or something? I can't find jack on it...
New Jersey Hospital Denies Claim That ACORN Workers Collected Absentee Ballots
FOXNews.com - November 03, 2009
A New Jersey hospital is denying accusations that ACORN workers have been inside collecting absentee ballots for the state's gubernatorial race.
East Orange General Hospital CEO Kevin Slavin said Tuesday that "all proper protocols" were followed as part of its program to allow patients to vote via absentee ballot, and that no third-party groups were signing up patients.
"Other than the specifically designated and trained staff to hand out and collect these ballots, no advocacy groups were authorized nor allowed access to the hospital to hand out absentee ballots to patients as has been recently reported in unsubstantiated blogs and on political talk shows," he said in a written statement.
Slavin was referring to reports that claimed people wearing ACORN shirts were spotted distributing and collecting absentee ballots at a hospital in the area. The Wall Street Journal reported this Monday, as did BigGovernment.com -- the Web site that publicized recent undercover operations in which ACORN workers were filmed giving tax advice to two activists posing as a pimp and prostitute.
The claim comes on top of reports that the New Jersey Democratic State Committee has admitted to paying for a robo-call promoting independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett and criticizing Republican Chris Christie.
<SNIP> (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/03/new-jersey-hospital-denies-claim-acorn-workers-collected-absentee-ballots/)
HA!Exactly but it is weird that Jersey was one of the two.
2 out of 3 ain't bad.
Exactly but it is weird that Jersey was one of the two.
Melvin wins Supreme Court race
HARRISBURG - Joan Orie Melvin, a Republican judge from Western Pennsylvania, prevailed in the Philadelphia suburbs yesterday to claim a decisive win in the hard-fought battle for a vacancy on the state Supreme Court. Melvin's victory shifts the political balance on the state's most powerful bench to Republican, and could portend a re-energized conservative base in the 2010 gubernatorial and congressional elections.
With 91 percent of ballots counted, Melvin had won every suburban county around Philadelphia except Montgomery, where Democrat Jack Panella of Easton led by only a few hundred votes.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/pa/20091104_Melvin_wins_Supreme_Court_race.html
Bloomberg reelected NY mayor (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5guprzksWjVpCpUbzFs3IejsMatgw)
NEW YORK — New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg won reelection in an unexpectedly tight race, after the media tycoon changed the city's law on term limits and spent a record amount of his own fortune to dominate the campaign.
Bloomberg had been forecast to win by double digits, but squeaked by with 51 percent against 46 percent for his Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, with nearly all votes counted.
"Everybody was shocked," a Bloomberg aide told The New York Times.
In his victory speech, Bloomberg downplayed the slim margin, saying it had been "a hard-fought victory in a very difficult year."
Defeat in Maine a harsh blow to gay-marriage drive
Link to AP article: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jv2czUG72xt9zK5erT-vbOJ2X9UwD9BOJDO80
Why is it such a surprise. In every single state where gay marriage has gone before the people (some multiple times, such as CA), it's been voted down EVERY SINGLE TIME.
And that is in 31 states so far, almost enough for a Constitutional Amendment.
Does that 31 INCLUDE the states that - like Commiefornia - had to make it an amendment to their constitution in order to shut the peter puffers up?
Ratings from Tuesday, November 3...
Fox News Channel 4,043,000 viewers
MSNBC 974,000 viewers
Headline News 842,000 viewers
CNN 826,000 viewers