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Billionaire bond king questions unemployment data: 'Hard to believe'

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Ptarmigan:
Billionaire bond king questions unemployment data: 'Hard to believe'
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/billionaire-bond-king-questions-unemployment-data-hard-believe


--- Quote ---Amid a seemingly growing list of major company layoffs in 2024, one billionaire bond fund manager is raising questions over some data.

During an interview on "Making Money with Charles Payne," DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," pointed out state unemployment numbers he described as "hard to believe."

"Amazingly, 88% of the states, and I think they have D.C. in there so there's 51 of them, 88% of them are reporting rising unemployment over the last six months. And I'm having a very hard time squaring this circle," Gundlach told FOX Business host Charles Payne on Thursday.

"If 88% of the states are reporting rising unemployment, how can it be that national unemployment remains stable at a very, very low level?" he further posited.
--- End quote ---

I have hard time believing unemployment is that low. The labor participation is low.

Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART


--- Quote ---He further noted similarities between markets now and the "inflation fight" in the late 1970s to early '80s, as well as comparable recession concerns.

"The yield curve has been inverted now for about 80 weeks, maybe a little more than 80 weeks," Gundlach said. "The only episode that had a longer period of an inverted yield curve before the recession came was in the late ‘70s, early ’80s, which, interestingly, was also the last time we had an inflation fight going on."

"The 10-year yield was lower than the two-year yield by 108 basis points. And now it's 18. When you start to invert, you really get to be on recession watch," he added. "And the fact that recession hasn't come after 80 plus weeks of yield curve inversion is a very bad logic to say it's not coming."
--- End quote ---

Jeffrey Gundlach notes it looks similar to the late 1970s to early 1980s.

fatboy:
I see that Sen. Warren wants the fed to reduce the discount rate to help people better manage their money.

My question is if the economy is doing so well with interest rates where they are presently, why the big hurry to lower them back to levels that caused all the misery?

Old n Grumpy:

--- Quote --- "If 88% of the states are reporting rising unemployment, how can it be that national unemployment remains stable at a very, very low level?" he further posited.
--- End quote ---

The answer is simple it’s called lying 🤥

DefiantSix:

--- Quote from: Old n Grumpy on January 30, 2024, 03:05:40 PM ---The answer is simple it’s called lying 🤥

--- End quote ---

Yup. DoL has been fudging the numbers and cooking the books since at least the Dubya administration, and I think I remember it going back all the way to Comrade Billy Jeff.

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