Joseph Cao Poll Shows Big Lead (R-LA)

[Chris_]

Conventional wisdom suggests Rep. Joseph Cao is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.

Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.

That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.

Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/07/joseph_cao_poll.php

[franksolich]

Oh my.

That's certainly unexpected.

[Chris_]

You would think so. 

I suppose Obama may have disillusioned a lot of people.  Looks like we'll find out in November.

[GOP Congress]

Oh my.

That's certainly unexpected.

Not by me. I see an 80-seat turnaround; possible two weeks ago, upgraded to probable on Sunday with Gibbs' essentially ceding the House to the GOP. 100 seats, even a month ago unthinkable, is now about 5%, but all events to November have to coincide with overall conservative assertiveness. The media Democratic-controlled 4th branch of government will not be a factor this time around, or more precisely, will have a negative effect on for the dems as much as a positive effect.

In the senate, I see a 12-16 seat turnaround, enough to ensure reasonable conservative control over the Dems/Independents/RINOS (re: Socialists) in controlling the agenda. Fence sitting is not going to be an option as it has in the past for the republicans. We may also pick up DINO to RINO defections after the election, whom I will watch extremely carefully.

And my English associate had taken a bet three months ago that the republicans would take the house and the senate, and got 16-1 odds (I originally thought he had 12). This was when they started the first line. Since then, the odds have dropped significantly (of course, his 75,000 pound bet may have shifted it a bit). Right now, the odds are even for the house, and 2/1 democrats (which is still a great bet.)

DISCLAIMER AND WARNING: Gambling on US Politics by US citizens is ILLEGAL, no matter where it's done.

[Lacarnut]

I am surprised that Cao is leading in such a heavily black democratic precinct. Thousands of Vietnamese fisherman are hurting because of the oil spill. So, economics may be playing a big part across racial lines. 

[Eupher]

Well, Cao did vote for ObamaCare - the only Repub to do so. This is a guy who, according to the link, isn't all that popular with conservatives (read, the guy's a world-class RINO) and he's trying to survive in a district that's overwhelmingly lib.

Ergo, he's dancing on both sides of the floor.

Nuoc Mam RINO

[IassaFTots]

This sentence, from your article Eupher amuses me. 

Realistically, the only reason Cao was successful was that the Democratic incumbent was under criminal indictment, was on video accepting bribes, and had cash found in his freezer when FBI agents raided his home.

I miss NOLA politics.  The amusement factor is phenomenal. 

[ROCKURWORLD]

Isn't Cao a RINO?

[Eupher]

Isn't Cao a RINO?

That's a pretty safe bet, yes, he's a RINO.

[BlueStateSaint]

What's today's date?  July 13th.  Check the date on that poll.

May 27-June 2

Things may have moved back in the Dems' direction by now.  Though, I have no idea.