The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat

[Wretched Excess]

The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat

Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 · Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans.

"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus. "Global warming doesn't mean every year will be warmer than the last. And it may be that we are in a period of less rapid warming."

In recent years, heat has actually been flowing out of the ocean and into the air. This is a feature of the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. So it is indeed possible the air has warmed but the ocean has not. But it's also possible that something more mysterious is going on.

That becomes clear when you consider what's happening to global sea level. Sea level rises when the oceans get warm because warmer water expands. This accounts for about half of global sea level rise. So with the oceans not warming, you would expect to see less sea level rise. Instead, sea level has risen about half an inch in the past four years. That's a lot.

Willis says some of this water is apparently coming from a recent increase in the melting rate of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

"But in fact there's a little bit of a mystery. We can't account for all of the sea level increase we've seen over the last three or four years," he says.

One possibility is that the sea has, in fact, warmed and expanded — and scientists are somehow misinterpreting the data from the diving buoys.

But if the aquatic robots are actually telling the right story, that raises a new question: Where is the extra heat all going?

Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says it's probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.

That can't be directly measured at the moment, however.

"Unfortunately, we don't have adequate tracking of clouds to determine exactly what role they've been playing during this period," Trenberth says.

It's also possible that some of the heat has gone even deeper into the ocean, he says. Or it's possible that scientists need to correct for some other feature of the planet they don't know about. It's an exciting time, though, with all this new data about global sea temperature, sea level and other features of climate.

"I suspect that we'll able to put this together with a little bit more perspective and further analysis," Trenberth says. "But what this does is highlight some of the issues and send people back to the drawing board."

Trenberth and Willis agree that a few mild years have no effect on the long-term trend of global warming. But they say there are still things to learn about how our planet copes with the heat.

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oops.

[DixieBelle]

Ruh Roh!!!!! I wonder if Al Gore will say that man has somehow had an effect on the ocean so we can't stop fiddling with global economies now!!!!

[Wretched Excess]

Ruh Roh!!!!! I wonder if Al Gore will say that man has somehow had an effect on the ocean so we can't stop fiddling with global economies now!!!!

do SUV's travel underwater?

[DixieBelle]

Only the ones issued by the VWRC. At least the 2008 editions.

[Wretched Excess]

Only the ones issued by the VWRC. At least the 2008 editions.

it's the melting glaciers that are keeping the oceans cool.  think of the rum in your rum and coke.  in fact, global warming will actually cause the oceans to grow significantly colder.  yeah, that's the ticket.

 

[Freeper]

It's global climate change now, not warming. Try to keep up with the talking points. 

 

[DixieBelle]

They should just call it: "The Socialist Agenda to wreck the global economy" and be done with it.

[Wretched Excess]

It's global climate change now, not warming. Try to keep up with the talking points. 

 

I think they will eventually spread out to the other planets.  "ok, so maybe the earth isn't getting warmer, but the moon IS getting warmer".

[Chris_]

Is this "peer reviewed"?

doc

[Randy]

the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record

In recent years, heat has actually been flowing out of the ocean and into the air

Could.....???


Nawwww :rolleyes:

[DumbAss Tanker]

The Robots LIE!!!  They were built by big corporations, you know!

 

[Duke Nukum]

Enjoy Your Global Warming(TM) Period!

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

AGW is just taking it between the cheeks today; it's getting spit-roasted:

New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible
Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was.

That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Langley Research Center.

After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week.

"Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount.

How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution.

Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always.

So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite. His result included a new term, which acts as a negative feedback to counter the positive forcing. At low levels, the new term means a small difference ... but as greenhouse gases rise, the negative feedback predominates, forcing values back down.

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher+Basic+Greenhouse+Equations+Totally+Wrong/article10973.htm

[DixieBelle]

I knew I should have invested in Al Gore's scam when I had the chance

[Crazy Horse]

Here is what's most important thing about global warming

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

[Chris_]

The Robots LIE!!!  They were built by big corporations, you know!

 

...and Diebold processes the data.   

[Wretched Excess]

Here is what's most important thing about global warming

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

absolutely.  and that goes for academia, which is funded by government grants, as well as governmental agencies.  you just don't get funded unless your research is going to save the world, and in order to save the world, there must be a threat.

[Chris_]

Here is what's most important thing about global warming

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

absolutely.  and that goes for academia, which is funded by government grants, as well as governmental agencies.  you just don't get funded unless your research is going to save the world, and in order to save the world, there must be a threat.

If I recall correctly, I made this exact point with TNO several weeks ago in another thread on the subject......he, of course, didn't want to hear about it.....

doc

[Wretched Excess]

Here is what's most important thing about global warming

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

absolutely.  and that goes for academia, which is funded by government grants, as well as governmental agencies.  you just don't get funded unless your research is going to save the world, and in order to save the world, there must be a threat.

If I recall correctly, I made this exact point with TNO several weeks ago in another thread on the subject......he, of course, didn't want to hear about it.....

doc

it disables their entire argument.  destroying their motives destroys their "science".  unfortunately, a lot of people actually believe that everything they hear from a scientist is therefore scientific.


 

[Chris_]

Here is what's most important thing about global warming

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

absolutely.  and that goes for academia, which is funded by government grants, as well as governmental agencies.  you just don't get funded unless your research is going to save the world, and in order to save the world, there must be a threat.

If I recall correctly, I made this exact point with TNO several weeks ago in another thread on the subject......he, of course, didn't want to hear about it.....

doc

it disables their entire argument.  destroying their motives destroys their "science".  unfortunately, a lot of people actually believe that everything they hear from a scientist is therefore scientific.


 

...especially if it's been peer reviewed.   

[Crazy Horse]

...especially if it's been peer reviewed.  

Yeah the science used for Amedment 15C of the snapper/grouper fishery was peer reviewed....................it's horribly flawed, yet is still used because of the 'best available science" Fishery science is a lot like global warming in that they both are counting/guessing on things that can't be seen. In fisheries you manage on something you can't count, in global warming, they SWAG what's happening.