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Author Topic: Nate Silver backtracking?  (Read 1706 times)

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Offline Ballygrl

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Nate Silver backtracking?
« on: November 04, 2012, 11:06:23 AM »
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Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.
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"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline miskie

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Re: Nate Silver backtracking?
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 11:29:02 AM »
I was wondering when Nate would start hedging his bets  :lmao:

The short of that Tweet is If Obama wins the popular vote, he wins, if Obama loses the popular vote, he loses.

The 'tie' is just there to soften the blow to primitives. The odds of another 1880 election are slim to none, since there is no strong 3rd party candidate this time around.
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Offline BigTex

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Re: Nate Silver backtracking?
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 11:36:28 AM »
Nate is digging himself a hole, hes got Romney all the way down to a 14.9% overall chance to win. On Wednesday his political career will be over and he will have to go back to sports stats
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Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Nate Silver backtracking?
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 11:43:47 AM »
Why would he put his entire career on the line going way out making a prediction like that?
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"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline BigTex

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Re: Nate Silver backtracking?
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 11:48:06 AM »
Quote from: Ballygrl on November 04, 2012, 11:43:47 AM
Why would he put his entire career on the line going way out making a prediction like that?

Because he made his model and now he is stuck with it, he would look even worse to switch it before the election even happened.
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Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. -Kenny Powers

Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Nate Silver backtracking?
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 12:12:59 PM »
I saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose insisting that he isn't a liberal and that he won't be voting this year. He claims that he hasn't voted joining the New York Times.
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