Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in the Caribbean

[Wretched Excess]

have I ever mentioned that I like hurricane forecast computer models almost as much as I like presidential opinion polls? 

the computer models are diverging a bit now . .

[Chris_]

I just need it to be over by the time I go to the Bahamas on vacation in October.

And to not screw up my travel back home on Friday.

[Wretched Excess]

I just need it to be over by the time I go to the Bahamas on vacation in October.

And to not screw up my travel back home on Friday.

your compassion for humanity is deeply inspiring.

[Strider]

From the current projected path, looks like Florida will not be affected, except for the Keys...This storm is heading into the gulf....at a 3 or higher..and no one wants to say it on TV...but looks like New Orleans is it's destination..

It could hit Cat 5.  Think of that:  a Cat 5 hurricane with N'awlins in its sights, the week of the RNC.

The water temp in the carib west of dominican is 82 deg...the water temp in the gulf is 85.5-86 degrees.....once it clears cuba...game over...

[Wretched Excess]

From the current projected path, looks like Florida will not be affected, except for the Keys...This storm is heading into the gulf....at a 3 or higher..and no one wants to say it on TV...but looks like New Orleans is it's destination..

It could hit Cat 5.  Think of that:  a Cat 5 hurricane with N'awlins in its sights, the week of the RNC.

The water temp in the carib west of dominican is 82 deg...the water temp in the gulf is 85.5-86 degrees.....once it clears cuba...game over...

of course, we can't forget the impact of gas prices on politics . . . .

[Peter3_1]

Crude already up in anticipation a couple of bucks a bbl.

[Wretched Excess]

great discussion of gulf hurricane intensification and the loop current eddy here.  weatherunderground is the place for hurricane watchers, by the way.

Gustav's intensification potential in the Gulf of Mexico
As we saw in 2005 with Katrina and Rita, the large amounts of deep, warm water brought into the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current can help intensify hurricanes to Category 5 intensity. As explained in my Loop Current tutorial, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf. The Loop Current itself can also fuel rapid intensification, such as happened with Hurricane Charley in 2004. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify. There is also a weaker eddy present in the western Gulf; this eddy broke off from the Loop Current in April, and is much cooler then the eddy that broke off in July. Should Gustav pass over the April eddy, it shouldn't make much difference.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft is scheduled to drop a network of 20 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data will feed directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF).

[docstew]

oil prices may be rising in anticipation of gustav, but look at it this way... with so much attention on the offshore platforms, WHEN they don't spill or leak from being hit by a hurricane, it'll deflate one of the lib's main arguments against offshore drilling...

[TheSarge]

oil prices may be rising in anticipation of gustav, but look at it this way... with so much attention on the offshore platforms, WHEN they don't spill or leak from being hit by a hurricane, it'll deflate one of the lib's main arguments against offshore drilling...

Maybe.  But you have to remember...despite facts to the contrary the Libs STILL insist that the Alaska Pipeline is harmful to the local Caribou population and that drilling in ANWR will destroy land that looks like this:





You'd think they'd realize that drilling in the gulf is safe after all the rigs survived Katrina.


But there they are still talking about spills and leaks.

[Willow]

Crude already up in anticipation a couple of bucks a bbl.

I filled up yesterday. It was $3.65.9/per gallon. Fla. We will see what happens. After Katrina it was a couple of weeks before we could even buy gas.

[TheSarge]

$3.59 where I live in NOVA.

And that's not even the cheapest I can find it.

[Scoobie]

it's down to $3.43 here in the republik of maryland. Woot.

I read this morning that La is already asking the Fed for "pre-disaster" relief. Guess they learned a little bit of a lesson with Katrina.

[Wretched Excess]

it's down to $3.43 here in the republik of maryland. Woot.

I read this morning that La is already asking the Fed for "pre-disaster" relief. Guess they learned a little bit of a lesson with Katrina.

and they have a governor that isn't an idiot.

[Willow]

it's down to $3.43 here in the republik of maryland. Woot.

I read this morning that La is already asking the Fed for "pre-disaster" relief. Guess they learned a little bit of a lesson with Katrina.

and they have a governor that isn't an idiot.

Exactly. Jindal is handling things while Nagin parties away in Denver!

[Chris]

Monster Gustav hits Category 4

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

[Peter3_1]

Is that the "weather bug" map? That's what I got from them.

And ANWR see these on SNOPES?

http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/anwr.asp

[Miss Mia]

[Chris]

Looks like the shit is going to start hitting the fan Monday morning.

The evacuation routes have already been closed to incoming traffic.  All interstate lanes are now out-going only.

[rich_t]

Looks like the shit is going to start hitting the fan Monday morning.

The evacuation routes have already been closed to incoming traffic.  All interstate lanes are now out-going only.

I'm glad I ain't working on Monday or Tuesday.

[Chris]

 

Amerigo Vespucci  (1000+ posts)       Sun Aug-31-08 12:41 AM
Original message
Strapped for cash, some in New Orleans stay and hope

Source: CNN

kestrel91316  (1000+ posts)       Sat Aug-30-08 11:33 PM
Original message
Many buses hired for evacuation did not arrive

Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune

Local school systems had to provide more than 400 buses Saturday to make up for a lack of transportation the state had promised to provide for evacuees by using out-of-state contractors.

[TheSarge]

Looks like crossing Cuba slowed it down a little bit.

I was listening to Janice Dean on FNC yesterday and she says the place that will catch the worst of the storm is on the NE side of the storm due to the rotation.

So it looks like (again) Mississippi will get all the damage and NOLA will get all of the attention.

[Willow]

Looks like crossing Cuba slowed it down a little bit.

I was listening to Janice Dean on FNC yesterday and she says the place that will catch the worst of the storm is on the NE side of the storm due to the rotation.

So it looks like (again) Mississippi will get all the damage and NOLA will get all of the attention.

what they are saying today is it looks like it will go ashore just west of NO, which means NO will get the worst of the right side of the storm.