Newt Gingrich: Trump trounced by Biden in 2020? Don't bet on it. Here's why
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-biden-2020-newt-gingrichAs a student of history, it is painful to watch today’s so-called reporters and analysts pontificate about the Nov. 3, 2020 election outcome. We are currently six months away from that event.
Yet analyst after analyst and TV host after TV host will claim if the election were held today Joe Biden would win – as if the Trump supporters should panic or collapse in despair.
To some extent, this kind of presentism even infects the White House and Republican leaders and activists.
Polls are meaningless.
Truman had a lot to smile about. He had beaten the national establishment against all odds. Let me first outline the sequence of that year’s polling data and then show how much the situation of President Trump parallels President Truman’s challenge in 1948.
In late summer, Thomas E. Dewey held a 13-point lead over Truman (49-36). This was a four-way race with the leftwing candidate, former Vice President Henry Wallace at that point getting 5 percent and the Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond polling at 3 percent.
In the post-Labor Day poll, Gallup still had Dewey ahead by 8 points. Truman went on to win by 49.6 percent to 45.1 percent, with Wallace and Thurmond each getting 2.4 percent.
President Harry S Truman won in the 1948 Election despite polls showing Thomas E. Dewey having a huge lead.
