I really have to credit the "Last Refuge" website. He was laying out the odds logically, so I was 90% sure Trump was going to win. Our friends from the other side were 100% sure Hillary was in. daemon and I had a $100 (charity) bet going. I aim to collect one day (I told him I'd match it if he paid up)
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As I said on DI, the pollsters usually deprive Republican candidates by 5 points or so, in order to try to create a bandwagon effect for the Democrat. But as election day looms, they have to reluctantly grow a bit more honest, so as not to seem to be
total ass-hats, especially when their polls would actually show that the Republican may win! They can always claim that they were absolutely correct for weeks, but that there was an amazing last-minute shift yada-yada...
I was about to go to bed around 2200 hrs election eve, but on FOX, Brit Hume was monitoring a number of polling predictions and 538.com had suddenly swung heavily to Trump aaaaand... I stayed up until 0230 hrs the next morning...