Opening Bell/Stock Market 11/05/08

[Hawkgirl]

Starting the day off with a triple digit loss after the election of "that one".

[Wretched Excess]

I am sure that the MSM no longer cares about the current "great depression".  it has served it's purpose.  the only future value that the crisis may have is that it will be an excuse for the obama/pelosi/reid triumvirate to nationalize the mortgage industry, and to that end, it would better serve their purposes if the market fell through the floor.

[Chris_]

Stagflation, HERE WE COME.

[Wretched Excess]

down 300 right now.

[USA4ME]

At 1:30pm EST, the market is currently down 292.71.  You had to know that would happen given the election results.

I talked to someone who works the floor at the NYSE about a month ago and asked him about how Wall Street was viewing the election.  Obviously, they weren't too keen on Il Duce winning, but he claimed that the floor thought he would.  I asked him about the market drop over that time period and how much effect the possibility of Il Duce winning has had.  He said that he'd seen reports that it caused at least a 15-20% percent drop, but he personally put it more at 40-50%.  He also said the market, at that time, had pretty much adjusted with the anticipation of a possible Il Duce presidency and didn't expect any more really big drops.

I believe the drop you're seeing today are some of the last holdouts hoping that the outcome would be different finally bailing out.  Until investors find out what he's going to do, and that's going to take several months if not a year or more, they're going to sit it out and wait.  Don't blame them.

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[NHSparky]

Unfortunately, if the market recovers even a portion of the losses of the past year, the Obummer will get all the credit.

[RightCoast]

All the networks I heard this morning were calling it "profit taking" no mention of possible abject fear of what Barack might bring about.

[Chris_]

Unfortunately, if the market recovers even a portion of the losses of the past year, the Obummer will get all the credit.

The market does nothing "on a whim" or based on "feel good'ism".  What reasons do YOU see for the market pulling out of this death spiral?

Ramember folks, the market crash was in 1929.  The Great Depression didn't launch until ****in' FDR tried to "FIX" the damned thing with marxism.

I hope everybody's ready.

[Wretched Excess]

All the networks I heard this morning were calling it "profit taking" no mention of possible abject fear of what Barack might bring about.

that's because there will be no profit to take after we all become members of the Socialist Republic of The Obamessiah.  "profit" is a bad thing;  it is a social injustice to be cured.

[Chris_]

down 300 right now.

I freaking hope it hits 3000.  I have time, I can wait until after the fuhrer's term is done to get my 401K value back.

[NHSparky]

The market does nothing "on a whim" or based on "feel good'ism".  What reasons do YOU see for the market pulling out of this death spiral?

Ramember folks, the market crash was in 1929.  The Great Depression didn't launch until ****in' FDR tried to "FIX" the damned thing with marxism.

I hope everybody's ready.

Traditionally, markets have dropped 35-40 percent from their highs in recessive cycle for all measured recessions since WWII.  The market closed down almost exactly 40 percent off the 2007 high on October 27th.  We're down about 32 percent from that 2007 high today.

Wall Street recognizes that taxes will increase, but they also recognize spending, particularly government spending, will also increase, which feeds the companies which depend heavily upon government largesse.

No, the biggest problem is if Obama suggests a significant tax increase package within the first 100 days of his administration, THEN we're well and truly hosed.

[Wretched Excess]

remarkably, the AP has it about right:

Stocks fall as investors ponder Obama presidency
Wall Street falls sharply as investors ponder impact of Obama presidency on business, economy

NEW YORK (AP) -- A case of post-election nerves sent stocks lower Wednesday as investors worried about recession began questioning what impact a Barack Obama presidency will have on business and the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 300 points and the major indexes all fell more than 3 percent.
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"A lot of the policy going forward is going to have an effect on the various sectors of the market," said Joe Keetle, senior wealth manager for Dawson Wealth Management.

Obama's victory means that industries such as oil and gas producers, utilities and pharmaceuticals may face greater regulation and even taxes, while labor unions and automakers are expected to benefit.

In addition, banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and the rest of the financial sector will almost certainly face attempts at a regulatory overhaul by the Democratic Congress next year.

More

[Chris_]

Wall Street recognizes that taxes will increase, but they also recognize spending, particularly government spending, will also increase, which feeds the companies which depend heavily upon government largesse.

No, the biggest problem is if Obama suggests a significant tax increase package within the first 100 days of his administration, THEN we're well and truly hosed.

That government spending is exactly the problem, because the government isn't spending money it's confiscated from your wallet and mine any more.  The government is spending "money" it's just rolled off the damned printing presses.  They're destroying the credit rating of the United ****ing States of America, which will destroy your credit rating and mine, and drive inflation through the ****ing ceiling. 

Add to that all of the "bailing out" and federalizing of industries that THIS ("conservative"  ) administration has inflicted upon us, and all of the industries clammoring for bailout from the next administration, and about now, that Great Depression is looking like a ****ing Sunday garden party compared to what we're headed in the next 4-6 years.

[NHSparky]

I didn't say it was fair or right, I'm just calling 'em as I sees 'em.

[RightCoast]

That's a stong AP article. Somebody is getting fired.

[USA4ME]

Demeter

Dow Down 264; Looks Like Wall Street Isn't Happy About the Election

Good! That means they know the jig is up. Maybe we'll start seeing some volutary self-regulation, even.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3584504&mesg_id=3585011

Yeah, that's the reason it's down.  It has absolutely nothing to do with investors taking profits (or losses) prior to an Il Duce tax increase and attack on capitalism. 

 

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[Ralph Wiggum]

Dow is down 430 and heading southward as the market is about to close.

[Chris_]

Dow is down 430 and heading southward as the market is about to close.

"Suck!  Suck!  Suck!"

[Rebel]

Largest post-election drop in history.

[thundley4]

the market took a notable turn lower when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told a news conference additional economic stimulus may be needed once Obama takes office in January.

Heh

[Wretched Excess]

I think the market is in for a rough time.
People are going to be dumping stocks like rotten fruit before Hussiens increased capitol gains taxes kick in.

I am beginning  to wonder if that could possibly change.  it sounds great as a campaign theme, but your perspective tends to change when the success or failure of your presidency is riding on it.  I think it will be a great early test.  if he sticks with the capital gains tax increase, then he is still gulping down the koolaid, and his entire time in office will be spent as a tool of the moveon/pelosi/kos lunatics.  he he steps away from it, or nixes it all together, then at least he is capable of exercising independent thought.

and yes, I know which is more likely. 

 

[thundley4]

The dow is down 170 so far this morning.

[Jim]

a little perspective on yesterday...

even worse than FDR !



 The following table shows the percentage rise or decline in the
Dow Jones industrial average .DJI, Standard & Poor's 500 index
.SPX and Nasdaq composite index .IXIC on the day after a U.S
presidential election and who won the Election Day vote.
Year   Dow    S&P    Nasdaq  President elect
2008  -5.05  -5.27   -5.53   Barack Obama
2004  +1.01  +1.12   +0.98   George W. Bush
2000  -0.41  -1.58   -5.39   No decision: G.W. Bush v Al Gore*
1996  +1.59  +1.46   +1.34   William Clinton
1992  -0.91  -0.67   +0.16   William Clinton
1988  -0.43  -0.66   -0.29   George H. W. Bush
1984  -0.88  -0.73   -0.32   Ronald Reagan
1980  +1.70  +1.77   +1.49   Ronald Reagan
1976  -0.99  -1.14   -1.12   James Carter
1972  -0.11  -0.55   -0.39   Richard Nixon
1968  +0.34  +0.16    ---    Richard Nixon
1964  -0.19  -0.05    ---    Lyndon Johnson
1960  +0.77  +0.44    ---    John Kennedy
1956  -0.85  -1.03    ---    Dwight Eisenhower
1952  +0.40  +0.28    ---    Dwight Eisenhower
1948  -3.85  -4.15    ---    Harry Truman
1944  -0.27   0.00    ---    Franklin Roosevelt
1940  -2.39  -3.14    ---    Franklin Roosevelt
1936  +2.26  +1.40    ---    Franklin Roosevelt
1932  -4.51  -2.67    ---    Franklin Roosevelt
1928  +1.20  +1.77    ---    Herbert Hoover
1924  +1.17   ---     ---    Calvin Coolidge
1920  -0.57   ---     ---    Warren Harding
1916  -0.35   ---     ---    Woodrow Wilson
1912  +1.83   ---     ---    Woodrow Wilson
1908  +2.38   ---     ---    William Taft
1904  +1.30   ---     ---    Theodore Roosevelt
1900  +3.33   ---     ---    William McKinley
1896  +4.54   ---     ---    William McKinley
* George W. Bush ultimately was determined the winner of the 2000
election.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

[Jim]

The dow is down 170 so far this morning.

its going down till he names sec tres, then it might change course higher or even lower.

some of his win was already factored in over the last few weeks, had McCain won it would have gone up.

[Wretched Excess]

its going down till he names sec tres, then it might change course higher or even lower.

some of his win was already factored in over the last few weeks, had McCain won it would have gone up.

I heard two different people (their names escape me at the moment) on CNBC and FoxBiz say that he may be forced to announce that he was abandoning his plan to increase capital gains taxes before he takes office. otherwise the thing is headed for the basement.