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Star Member brooklynite (77,534 posts)https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216590151Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?UVA Center for PoliticsKEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.— President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”— Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is very likely to be smaller than in some past GOP wave years simply because the Democratic majority is already so small.— The composition of this year’s Senate map gives the Democrats a fighting chance to hold their majority there.
Eyeball_Kid (6,575 posts) 1. The Trump Treasonous Fallout has yet to hit the GOP.Spring J6 hearings will begin in earnest. After the hearings, all bets are off, IMO.Conventional "predictions" don't mean much in this political atmosphere. Yet the media, as an industry, continues to predict that downfall of the Dem majorities in the mid-terms. But there are so many factors that belie these predictions. Aside from the J6 and DOJ activities, there's also the Supreme Court's anticipated rejection of Roe v. Wade and the GOP's push to outlaw BIRTH CONTROL for unmarried women. If those items don't shake the women's vote to its core, nothing will. I'm anticipating a massive backlash against the GOP on a national level.
Star Member SoonerPride (11,374 posts) 2. Yes.It will be a huge loss.Expect trump to be the next Speaker of The House.Really.
ForgedCrank (589 posts) 3. That ass was poisonand is even more so now. I really don't see him getting elected to anything. And the GOP most certainly doesn't want anything to do with him being injected into congress at any level even if they do take over.Maybe I'm being way too optimistic, but I just can't picture it happening.
ForgedCrank (589 posts) 5. I see us losinga lot of seats in the house, but I'm hoping for turnout to save us from losing the majority.It is an unfortunate trend regarding mid-terms, but it's not a guarantee as far as predictions go either.Let's hope and push, voter turnout is the key as it always is. If we can keep people engaged and convince them to show up, I think there is a chance we can save this. I also tend to be overly optimistic when it comes tot his stuff, so all I can do is hope.
Beautiful Disaster (7 posts) 7. If gas price are still high? Absolutely.In the end, Americans will vote on emotion over policy and if gas prices and inflation remain high, those emotions are going to be against the party in power, even if it's not their fault.
maxsolomon (27,173 posts) 10. I don't see why voters would change their party preference at this pointone party is rational but constrained by the size of its majority, the other party is utterly unhinged, obstructionist, and spouts crazy shit 24/7 at extreme volume.I'll never understand how Americans can be such dumb flibberdigibbets.
Polybius (9,047 posts) 23. Because economy and warWhile us political folks know Biden is great on these issues, some average folks so not.I was in a restaurant waiting to pay, and next to me was an African American man in his 50's who happened to be watching the news. We started chatting, and he said something like "Trump was a racist, but at least the gas prices were low, inflation wasn't high, and Russia would never attack Ukraine because they'd be afraid of Trump responding with bombs in Moscow. I'm sorry I voted for Biden."Unfortunately, I suspect that he's not alone.
maxsolomon (27,173 posts) 25. He's dumb AF, a flibberdigibbet, and he's in my age cohort. I just don't get it. It makes me misanthropic, and I despair for this nation."Mussolini was a fascist, but the trains ran on time".
Star Member rockfordfile (7,926 posts) 43. I don't buy itTrump is a traitor with Russia just like other republicans.Most Americans get it that oil companies are price gouging and that oil companies are republican.
Calista241 (5,254 posts) 57. Three things, and it's not just oil.1. Trump isn’t on the ballot.2. It’s not just oil. It’s milk, eggs, meat, basically all food.3. Rent. Rent being up 50% is going to piss off a shitload of voters. And we have 7 more months of people’s income going down because rents are going up.
Beautiful Disaster (7 posts) 38. 40% of the country decides every election...And they're not Democrats or Republicans. Many are barely checked into the political process altogether. They typically are emotional voters who vote based on how they feel at the time. That's why they're called swing voters. They probably voted Obama in 2008, a mix of Romney and Obama in 2012, many voted Trump in 2016 and then many voted Biden in 2020.It's not the partisans who decide elections. Democrats will make up about 30% of the vote, and they'll almost certainly vote Democratic, Republicans will make up another 30% and then you'll have the other 40% who vote on a whim.It can help Democrats (see: 2018, 2020) but also hurt them.Unfortunately, these voters care less about the issues and more about the vibe.If gas prices are high? They're likely to vote Republican only because they're emotionally angry at the party in power.Emotion is difficult to reason with.You can try to explain all the reasons why gas prices are high but none of that matters. It'll just seem like excuses.Just like in 2008 with Bush and McCain.It's a sucky dynamic of American politics where a good chunk of the population barely pays attention to what is happening and therefore, only votes based on their pocket book.
greenjar_01 (6,165 posts) 13. Does this poster ever post positive news about Democrats?Like, I mean, ever?
Star Member bigtree (80,797 posts) 14. this article cites "Chuck Todd & Mark Murray of NBC News" for anything current backing up this joke of an analysis.The rest is falderal the author gleans from standard history about parties in power in the WH traditionally losing ground in Congress in midterms.Here's the meat of his conclusion about 2022:"There appears to be a growing consensus among pundits and political observers that Democrats are likely to experience a shellacking in the 2022 midterm elections, especially in the House of Representatives. According to observers such as Chuck Todd and Mark Murray of NBC News, a number of indicators are now pointing toward major losses for Democrats, especially President Biden’s poor approval rating and the large proportion of Americans who believe that the country is currently on the wrong track or headed in the wrong direction.""There appears to be a growing consensus among pundits and political observers..." Then he cites Chuck ****ing Todd.Trash this.
Star Member bigtree (80,797 posts) 61. not so fastHow Democrats may actually pull off a *major* redistricting upset(CNN)Conventional wisdom heading into this year was that Republicans would benefit mightily from the decennial congressional line-drawing process, carving up districts and creating a decidedly friendly national map.But as states rush to finish their House maps in advance of the rapidly approaching 2022 primary season, a new storyline has emerged: Democrats could well break even or possibly gain an advantage when all of the new lines are finished across the country.Two recent developments are key to that sea change:1) New York Democrats unveiled a congressional map that would take the current delegation of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans and potentially turn it into a 22-4 split. (The state is losing a seat.) It is "the largest single-state shift in the country," according to Cook Political Report House editor David Wasserman.2) Pennsylvania's Supreme Court, where Democrats hold a majority, took control of drawing the state's lines, after the Democratic governor and the Republican-controlled legislature deadlocked on a map that must reduce the state's House delegation from 18 seats to 17 seats.FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich noted in the wake of the unveiling of the New York map:"I had previously calculated that redistricting alone would hand Republicans two new House seats (give or take) in the 2022 midterms, while Democrats would roughly stand pat. (This is before accounting for the likely Republican-leaning national political environment.) Add this map to the mix, though, and Democrats would be poised to gain about three seats nationally and Republicans would be poised to lose around two."This is all just the latest in a string of positive redistricting developments for Democrats, including recent court rulings in Alabama and Ohio that have favored the party.As Wasserman wrote: "For the first time, Dems have taken the lead on the Cook Political Report's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones."
brooklyniteAre Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?
All signs point to “Yes”, so I’m not quite sure why you, of all primitives, are trying to sugar-coat this.As hard as this primitive from time to time tries to drag his fellow kooks back into some semblance of reality, he still falls well short..
The installed biden administration has screwed up every single thing it touched, to the point where listing them all would take more typing than every post in this thread and the DU OP combined. But being DUmmies, their ability to understand that is quite limited.They're not going to know what hit them.
maxsolomon (27,173 posts)10. I don't see why voters would change their party preference at this pointone party is rational but constrained by the size of its majority, the other party is utterly unhinged, obstructionist, and spouts crazy shit 24/7 at extreme volume.
There's a reason why patriotism is considered a conservative value. Watch a Tea Party rally and you'll see people proudly raising the American flag and showing pride in U.S. heroes such as Thomas Jefferson. Watch an OWS rally and you'll see people burning the American flag while showing pride in communist heroes such as Che Guevera. --Bob, from some news site
