Author Topic: Gallup : Final Generic Ballot Poll : GOP 55 Dems 40  (Read 1260 times)

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Offline Wretched Excess

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Gallup : Final Generic Ballot Poll : GOP 55 Dems 40
« on: November 01, 2010, 09:11:26 AM »
with a 15 point margin, I just don't see how the senate isn't in play.  I expect the turnout models aren't geared for what is about to happen.  the individual senate polls can't be right if gaallup is right.  it makes you wonder if rossi and fiorina aren't ahead, and kirk, paul, and angle aren't ahead by a lot more.   

it will be interesting when the polls close in DE and CT.  if o'donnell does better than her polls are indicating, or, heaven forbid, she jumps out of the bushes  :-) and steals the election from coons, it will mean that the polls for the west coast races are similarly out of whack.

and also, a wave on the east coast depresses the liberal vote on the west cost  . . .  although I guess just about everyone in WA has already voted by mail.

Quote
Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday
Lead in generic ballot large enough to give Republicans solid majority control of U.S. House

PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.



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Offline miskie

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Re: Gallup : Final Generic Ballot Poll : GOP 55 Dems 40
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2010, 12:32:49 PM »
This generic ballot is a good sign, but remember - what people want may not coincide with the vote..

Such as 'Yeah I want Republican control, just not from my local Republican candidate X... ' -So, if there are enough candidate X nonvotes out there, candidate X loses...

The same comes up with questions involving change where everyone supports replacing incumbent candidates, except their own incumbents.

Now when one considers the lopsided 15 point number, one expects that there may be enough in motion to change the Senate. 

Offline Wretched Excess

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Re: Gallup : Final Generic Ballot Poll : GOP 55 Dems 40
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2010, 03:45:25 PM »
conventional wisdom is clearing it's throat, and seems to think that manchin has saved himself by running as a republican, rossi has the momentum going into election day (although it's hard to tell what that means, since they vote by mail in WA), carly is closing, paul is a clear winner, toomey is a winner, and sharron will bag herself a majority leader.

I wish conventional wisdom would keep it's mouth shut until the votes were in.


Offline Wretched Excess

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Re: Gallup : Final Generic Ballot Poll : GOP 55 Dems 40
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2010, 03:51:37 PM »
rasmussen's final generic ballot is + 12 GOP, 51-39:

Quote
Republicans have opened a 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 31, 2010.  New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 51% of Likely Voters nationwide plan to vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% are opting for the Democrat.

If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s.

With just one day left until Election Day 2010, these new numbers reflect an increase in the Republican advantage from nine points in each of the preceding two weeks.

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