Lincoln (D-AR) down 30 points

[Chris_]

Only six incumbent senators have seen their re-elects drop below 40 percent of the two-party vote since we began directly electing senators. Given the polling we’ve seen recently, Lincoln stands a good chance of becoming number seven. She might even become the recordholder if she falls below 35 percent (set in 1932 by Sen. Wesley L. Jones of Washington). You never want to bet against an incumbent, but it is hard to see how Lincoln pulls this one out.

Real Clear Politics