CNN just released the data to a political poll today = and used it to point out that Palin is not the clear favorite of those who consider themselves TEA Partiers as favored candidate..
Download the poll data from here..
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/08/13/rel11d.pdfthe percentages are from Aug. 6-10, Apr. 9-11, Mar 19-21 - so the first number is the most relevant.
(IF REPUBLICAN) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. (ASKED OF REPUBLICANS. RESULTS BASED ON 494 INTERVIEWS WITH REPUBLICANS. SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS.)
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21% 20% 22%
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 18% 15% 18%
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 15% 14% 8%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 14% 24% 17%
Texas Congressman Ron Paul 10% 8% 8%
Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour 3% 1% 1%
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 3% 2% 5%
Indiana Congressman Mike Pence 3% 2% 4%
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 2% 3% 5%
Someone else (vol.) 6% 5% 8%
None/ No one (vol.) * 5% 2%
No opinion 4% 1% 3%
So, Romney continues to be in the lead, followed by Palin. -- but this is not the reason I find this poll interesting..
I like to look at negatives.
Who people favor tend to change with the seasons, making a poll like this fairly unreliable, especially if all you are interested in is who do people like the most at this time. There are still a couple of years before the presidential election - thats a political eternity. However, what trends tend to stick around is who do people
dislike - once someone goes on the proverbial S***list - it takes a whole lot of redemption to pull them off of it.
This is why I like this poll..
43.
(IF DEMOCRAT) Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? (ASKED OF DEMOCRATS. RESULTS BASED ON 458 INTERVIEWS WITH DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC. SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS.)
Renominate Obama 74%
Different candidate 23%
No opinion 2%
Slightly less that two years in, and nearly a quarter of Democrats would like to replace the 'Smartest President in History'. - in March, the replace Obama number was 20%. Obviously, something has gone wrong with team Obama, especially when one considers his approval rating right after election. Tasty, no ??
Well - time to make room - because here comes the second course..
this question is Who will you vote for today ? Obama, Generic Repub, Other Candidate, or don't know ?
QUESTIONS 44 AND 45 COMBINED
Registered Voters
August 6-10, 2010 45% 50% 3% 1%
March 25-28, 2010 47% 48% 4% 1%
March 19-21, 2010 47% 47% 4% 2%
All Americans
August 6-10, 2010 46% 49% 3% 1%
March 25-28, 2010 48% 47% 4% 1%
March 19-21, 2010 48% 46% 4% 2%
Registered Voters will rather vote for a generic Republican, than Obama by five points. When one considers 'All Americans', voters or not, Obama loses by four points. There is a difference in the numbers of Democrats and Republicans polled, but it is indicated that they corrected for that difference. If they hadn't corrected it at all, the poll would indicate that Obama has lost three percent of his base. Oops ! This really couldn't be worse news for the Democrats - because the unpolled 'likely voters' figure has got to be absolutely terrible for them..
And now -- For Dessert ...
Which of the following statements best describes you:
You are an active member of the Tea Party movement 2%
You support the Tea Party movement but you are not an active member 26%
You have no view of the Tea Party one way or the other 49%
You oppose the Tea Party movement 21%
No opinion 3%
Only 2% of those polled are 'teabaggers' - when combined with 'Teabag supporters' the total is only 28% - just seven points higher than the Anti TEA party folks. , combined, the pro and anti folks only account for 47% of those polled making the majority of those polled Regular Joes.
Oh, and some demographics --
14% of those who either are part of or support the TEA party are not white. So much for that 'racist' meme, eh ?
25% of TEA party detractors are not white.
The rest don't care.
So -- CNN does a poll, with lots and lots of very interesting tidbits, and what do they use it for ?
TRENDING: Poll shows Palin not the clear Tea Party favoriteThe title should be "Two years in, and Obama blows it" - but that wouldn't be the CNN way, would it ?
