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This time a year ago, the Texas Longhorns could blame the system, Big 12 Conference tiebreaker rules and BCS voters for their exclusion from the national championship game.
If they don't make it this season, the Longhorns can only blame themselves.
Well, maybe history, too.
The third-ranked Longhorns (12-0) will play for the national title next month if they can defeat Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday night in Arlington, Texas.
With Heisman-contending quarterback Colt McCoy directing the nation's No. 3 scoring offense and a defense that ranks first in the country against the run, the Longhorns would appear too powerful for Nebraska (9-3) - which has managed 20 or fewer points in half its games this season.
But the Big 12 championship game has a history of stunning upsets.
Four times in the league's 15-year history, a Big 12 team's national title aspirations ended in the conference championship game. It first happened in 1996, in the initial Big 12 championship game, when Texas upset No. 3 Nebraska 37-27.
Huskers senior safety Matt O'Hanlon, who grew up in Bellevue, Neb., remembers that game too well.
"I grew up with the whole Nebraska tradition. I was immersed in it," he said. "I remember that game. I was about in the third or fourth grade. Me and my dad were fishing and were listening on the radio. I was so upset.
Ndamukong Suh and Nebraska could join a deep history of Big 12 title game upset winners.
"It'll be nice to get some revenge and maybe spoil their national championship chances."
In 1998, Kansas State's title hopes ended with a double-overtime loss to Texas A&M. In 2001, the Longhorns' chances ended with an upset loss to Colorado. And in 2007, Missouri was ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings but fell to Oklahoma and didn't even go to a BCS bowl.
Last season, the Longhorns didn't even get that close. After finishing in a three-way tie with Oklahoma and Texas Tech in the South Division standings, Texas had to watch the Sooners play for the Big 12 championship even though the Longhorns had beaten them.
The fifth tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie is that the highest-ranked team in the BCS standings advances to the title game. The BCS standings had OU higher than Texas.
"You know how hard you worked and prepared and all the things you went through as a team, and it's taken away from you. It's really tough," McCoy said. "Last year, we didn't take care of business one week of the year. This year, we have. There are so many goals out there for us to attain."
Of course, attaining those goals requires beating Nebraska. Since the inception of Big 12 play, Texas is 7-1 against the Huskers, but five of those wins were by four or fewer points.
Besides, the Longhorns appeared vulnerable in a 49-39 Thanksgiving night victory over Texas A&M, which rolled up 532 yards of offense. But can Nebraska capitalize with an offense that is ranked 11th in the Big 12?
Even the Huskers seem to wonder.
"We're a completely different team than A&M," Nebraska center Jacob Hickman said. "We can't use that too much as a jumping point. Every time you see a team get points on them, it shows you it's possible to score on a team. But we really can't compare the two. We're more of a running team."
Statistically, Texas' defense is the best in the nation against the run. Maybe that's why Texas coach Mack Brown was unfazed by A&M's offensive outburst against the Longhorns.
"I think we felt too good about ourselves," Brown said. "We missed 13 tackles and had a lot of communication issues. We probably tried to do too much in a short week [of preparation]. I think that lack of performance will get our attention this weekend."
There was no lack of performance by McCoy, who passed for 304 yards and rushed for a career-high 175 against A&M. And that surely has the attention of the Nebraska defense, which includes four All-Big 12 honorees - tackles Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick, safety Larry Asante and cornerback Prince Amukamara.
Texas has scored more than 30 points in 11 of its 12 games. Meanwhile, Nebraska's defense has allowed just one opponent - Texas Tech - to score more than 20 points.
Colt McCoy could wrap up the Heisman with a big day.
McCoy likely can clinch the Heisman Trophy with a strong showing, but the Huskers are quite literally ready to face him.
"What you want to do is be in his face, have your presence in front of him," Suh said. "If you give him time, he's going to make good decisions. If you can force him to make decisions quicker, I think that's where you can disrupt him. As a defensive line, we want to get in the backfield and make him make those decisions a lot faster than he wants to."
Added O'Hanlon: "We definitely have to limit their playmaking ability. They have a lot of guys that can break for 50-yard touchdowns. We have to be good tacklers."
If the Huskers can put consistent pressure on McCoy and prevent big plays, maybe they can thwart Texas' national championship aspirations again. After all, McCoy struggled against Oklahoma, which, like the Huskers, has a strong defensive line and pass rush.
McCoy played that game with a respiratory infection. In six games since then, he has completed 73.7 percent of his passes for 1,791 yards and 16 touchdowns, with two interceptions.
"I feel like the turning point was after the OU game," McCoy said. "We had to bond and come together as a unit and as a team. From that point on, we started the season over. We said we're capable of being one of the best offenses in the country.
"There is still a lot of room for improvement. Nebraska has a really stout defense and they don't give up many big plays. It's a challenge for us. We'll work hard and be ready."
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Well, we'll see.
If Texas is as good as Texas thinks it is, anything less than a 45-point mauling of Nebraska would show that Texas isn't as good as Texas thinks it is.
It should be interesting.
